photo: Alexander Torrenegra via flickr.
Amazongate was a non-story from the outset, a question of sloppy citations rather than sloppy science. In fact a new piece in Tierraamérica which Mongabay is highlighting validates the original IPCC projection about how much of the Amazon rainforest could be left by the end of the century:Thomas Lovejoy, biodiversity chair of the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment, as well as biodiversity advisor to the World Bank, says the Amazon is "very close to a tipping point." By 2075 the forest could shrink to 65% of its original size.
Lovejoy says that the tipping point for the Amazon is 20% deforestation, and we are currently at 17-18% deforestation.
Main factors in the decline include climate change, deforestation and fire--sounds mighty like what the IPCC 4th assessment report said.
As for what the forest will turn into: "The forest eventually converts to cerrado (savannah) after a lot of fire, human misery, loss of biodiversity, and emission of carbon into the atmosphere."
Read more: The Amazon is Not Eternal
Amazonia, Climate Change
Amazon Will Be Drier Because of Global Warming But Won't Turn to Savannah
Vicious Cycle: Drought Threatens Amazon Forest, Speeds Global Warming
Amazon Tribe Already Feels the Pinch From Climate Change & Deforestation