39% Increase in CO2 by 2030: Latest Grim Business-as-Usual Emissions Projection

china air pollution photo

So, you can't see CO2 in the atmosphere, but you can see the other effects of reliance on coal... photo: orangeandmilk via flickr.

In case you still think that business-as-usual carbon emissions aren't a big deal: The EIA has released a new forecast of how much emissions will increase by 2030 without strong binding emission reduction targets. Absent such commitments we're likely to see global carbon dioxide emissions increase by more than 39%. Reuters has summed up the grim stats:That increase would mean global emissions would hit 40.4 billion tonnes by 2030, compared to 29 billion tonnes in 2006.

Furthermore, though currently emissions are roughly split between developed nations and the developing world, by 2030 the scale would solidly tip, with 25.8 billion tonnes coming from the developing world and 14.6 billion tonnes from the developed.

Which does beg the question if somewhere along the way if some of those 'developing' nations ought to be considered 'developed'.

Developing & Developed Terminology Misses the Green Point
Or perhaps even greater if we ought not start using different terminology to describe nations, since developing implies that what we have in the developed world in terms of material consumption and lifestyles is something to be strived for—when instead social factors such as health, eduction, wellness, happiness, and community (all of which are only indirectly tied to material consumption past a certain modest point) ought to be more emphasized instead. But that's a major digression...

Early Emission Reduction More Effective Than Late
Just to refresh everyone's memory: To keep global temperature rise below the critical threshold of 2°C, emission reductions of at least 80% are needed by 2050, with an emphasis being on strong reductions by 2020 being far, far preferable to making them later on.

More: Energy Information Administration
Global Carbon Emissions
US Emission Reduction Targets Inadequate: IPCC Chair and Lord Stern Play Good Cop-Bad Cop
We Need to Make Climate Freeloaders Pay Up! Per Capita Carbon Emissions of Many 'Developing' Nations Exceed Those of the US, Europe
West 'Responsible' For Third of China's CO2 Emissions
53% of Global Carbon Emissions Come From the Developing World: Oak Ridge National Laboratory

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