Five Hundred Oil-Industry Geologists Vote on Peak Oil


Image: Wikipedia, CC
Guess What the Results Were
The theory of peak oil itself is fairly non-controversial. But saying that we're close to this absolutely peak in oil and gas production is still debated by very knowledgeable people on both sides. A few years ago, it seemed like the balance was tipped in the direction of the "peak oil is not a problem for the near future" side, but lately, it seems like things might be going the other way. At the Petroleum Geology Conference in London, 500 geologists took a vote on wether "Peak oil is no longer a concern" (something that was argued by some of the speakers). The results were interesting.

Only about 1/3 of the votes supported that claim!

This was surprising even to Jeremy Leggett who argued against the claim that "peak oil is no longer a concern". In an interview with The Oil Drum he said:

Q: Were you expecting to win this debate?

No way! I thought I'd be lucky to get 10% of the vote. I expected it to the one of those masochistic experiences I put my hand up for, from time to time, in the possibly misguided feeling that it is better to preach to the unconverted than the converted. And I don't kid myself that ten minutes of woffly rhetoric from me changed any minds, or that David's arguments were so poor that he converted people for me. This was a pre-formed group opinion.

Q: What do you think the result means?

The result seems to suggest that the rank-and-file practitioners hold a very different view of peak oil from the BP/Shell/Exxon etc. top tables.

For the rest of the interview, check out The Oil Drum
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