Remember when we reported that 90% of auto execs expected battery electric vehicles to dominate by 2025, and that 74% believed that a majority of todays' car owners would no longer want to own a car?
I imagined at the time that these execs must have been nervous about the imminent disruption to their industry, but not as nervous as oil company execs.
Now Business Green reports that BP has come out with its own predictions for the future, and they too seem convinced that electric vehicles will see rapid and sustained growth. More precisely, they are predicting a 100-fold increase by 2035, moving from a mere 1 million cars on the road today to 100 million globally.
Given there are 1.2 billion cars on the road today, this isn't exactly a radical transformation. And I think we need to remember that BP is in the business of selling oil and gas. What's significant and newsworthy here, though, is not the numbers that BP is predicting but the fact that those numbers keep shifting toward a lower and lower carbon future. Last year, for example, BP was only predicting 70 million EVs by 2035.
Similarly, BP is also predicting that emissions will continue to grow by 0.6% a year through 2035. Anyone who knows anything about carbon budgets knows that this scenario is pretty much admitting defeat in the fight against climate change. Yet it's still encouraging, because last year BP was predicting an annual growth rate of 0.9%.
I wonder what their prediction will look like next year?