When I wrote about Tony Seba's prediction that all new vehicles will be electric by 2030, I was particularly struck by one observation:
In past instances of technological disruption (the shift from landlines to cell phones, for example), insiders and experts within the incumbent industries were often more—not less—likely to miss the disruption that was coming. At some point, however, the disruption becomes inevitable, and those incumbents will start scrambling to stay relevant.
Business Green reports on a new survey of auto executives from KPMG which suggests we may be reaching that point. Here are just some of the most relevant findings:— 90% of executives surveyed expect battery electric vehicles (EVs) to dominate by 2025
— 62% believe diesel technology is becoming obsolete
— 74% believe majority of today's car owners will not want to own a car (this should be encouraging to those folks who rightly point out that EVs don't solve many of the other downsides of private car ownership)
What's most exciting to me about results like these is that they often become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once even the incumbents are convinced that change is coming, resources are shifted, priorities change, mindsets shift and future investments begin to favor the new paradigm. So this other nugget from the survey is also very worthy of note:
—93% of those surveyed plan to invest in EVs over the next five years
Yes, battery electric vehicles make up a tiny fraction of cars on the road today. But they're getting more common all the time, and the pace of change is only going to pick up speed.