By 2028, the vast majority of commercial vehicles will be electric, says a vast majority of people responsible for managing them.
I wrote yesterday about a report that says the rate of decarbonization has to at least treble if we're to avoid catastrophic climate change. What I didn't say is that change is rarely linear. While progress has so far been slow on decarbonizing transportation, for example, I think there's a good chance of rapid progress as electrification starts to take hold.
That's particularly true of commercial operations.In the UK, for example, we've already seen 100 major companies commit to electrifying at least 5% of their fleet by 2020. And now Business Green reports on a survey of UK fleet operators—commissioned by fleet logistics company Geotab—that suggests 89% expect electric vehicles to dominate their field as early as 2028.
What's particularly significant is that more than half of those respondents currently have no electric vehicles in their fleets. That means there is immense pent up demand that we haven't even started to scratch the surface of. Luckily Geotab, the folks who commissioned this survey in the first place, also have a useful Q&A guide on their site for fleet managers wanting to get started on electrification.
With a growing and diverse range of electric commercial vehicles becoming available—and with a growing number of cities, regions and national governments taking action on air quality—I suspect commercial fleet operators have a better understanding than most of us on which way the wind is blowing.
And given the impressive progress that the UK has made on decarbonizing electricity supply, any electrification of transportation should pay double dividends in terms of actual emissions reductions.
Yes, the situation we face is dire. Yes, we need to pick up the pace. But once this wagon really gets rolling, there's good reason to believe that progress can be made – and fast.