Game-changer: Rooftop solar will be at grid parity in all 50 U.S. states by 2016

Solar panels on a red roof
CC BY 2.0 Flickr

According to Deutsche Bank

Right now, the cost of a rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) system has reached grid parity - which means it costs the same or less than getting electricity from the power grid - in 10 U.S. states. That might seem like a lot, but it's just the beginning, according to the solar energy analyst at Deutsche Bank, Vishal Shah. In his latest industry report, he predicts that by 2016, solar rooftop will reach grid parity in 50 U.S. states. No need to tell you, this would be a watershed event, no doubt creating a new inflection point in the growth of solar power.

DB/Screen capture

The graph above shows Deutsche Bank's projections for total cumulative PV capacity in the US between 2007 and 2016. As you can see, it's a nice exponential curve with an impressive growth rate. From 1GW total in 2008, 2016 should have almost 47x more! In just 8 years!

DB/Screen capture

This graphs shows yearly new capacity, with the breakdown between residential, commercial, and utility. As you can see, residential is projected to great just as quickly as commercial and hold its own, while utility falls behind. If we go back to the comparison we made above, this means that in 2016 there will be 16x more PV capacity installed than all the existing PV capacity in the U.S. in 2008. Wooza!

DB/Screen capture

This last graph shows Deutsche Bank's projections for the second biggest solar installer in the US, Vivint Solar. Again, we see the impressive growth projected ahead, with this single company installing more by 2014 than all of the cumulative PV capacity in the U.S. just a few years ago!

Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0

Via RE New Economy

Tags: Solar Power


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