Glut Of Solar Panels in 2009 Could Benefit Consumers
by Matthew McDermott, New York, NY 
on 12.12.08
photo: Abi Skipp
Though the recession is taking its toll on financing some renewable energy projects and on share prices of renewable energy companies (many of which have fared even worse than the market as a whole); and though there still have been a number of new large solar power projects announced recently; 2009 will bring a glut of solar panels to the market. That could be good news for consumers:
Solar Panel Prices Likely to Fall
According to an exec at Suntech they expect their prices to fall by 10-15% in 2009 denominated in euro and by 25-30% in dollars.
First Solar chief executive Mike Ahern, also has noticed that in the thin-film market, that though his company hasn’t yet lowered prices, saying in a bit of self promotion that their panels are already priced below market, other thin film companies are cutting prices.
What’s more, according to iSuppli, by 2010 the supply of silicon will likely outstrip demand further driving down prices.
Now, hopefully the income of prospective purchasers of solar panels won’t fall proportionally even more than the price of the technology and people will be able to take advantage of this situation.
via: StarTribune.com and Reuters
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I'll believe that when I see it... but I sure would like to see it.
Now, let's hope that in the 2009 economy people and businesses can actually afford them.
they been promising affordable solar panels for the maasses the last five years. a 2 kwh off the grid home kit from sierra solar costs the same as it did five years ago.
Why different percentages for Euros and Dollars?
Well it's great that prices may be coming down, up to 30%. That still puts the panels far out of the price range of most households though, so I doubt there will be a rush towards solar installations. However, it would make great sense for multi-unit living complexes to begin employing this technology for their own power needs, which would reduce all residents' power costs. That's the kind of program that generally requires government (or manufacturer) incentives, which may or may not happen, but even a single instance of it would make an excellent first step towards socially conscious apartment living.
At http://www.njsolarconnections.com we are doing well because of the 30% rebate from the federal government. If the costs fall another 30%, as this article is predicting, we wont be able to keep up with demand!
I will have to link this article in my blog!
Let's see.....25% drop in dollars....This means that the $20,000 system will be only $15,000!!!! Such a deal!!!!
The government really needs to step up to the plate on solar power incentives. It took 20 years for costs to be cut in half. At that rate they won't be competative for another 40 years.
If there is a huge incentive, say 90% for those making under $20K single or $40K married that would jump start mass production of panels that will truly accelerate cost reductions.
Limit the incentives to 5 years or so then require all new housing to be energy neutral so the manufacturers know they'll have a continuing market and we'll see real progress!
Even at todays price of $5/Watt, 5 years of $100B/yr woulid put 100 GigaWatts worth of panels on rooftops. That's about 25 nuke plants!