Sea Levels Still Will Rise Because of Global Warming: Just Not as Much as We Thought
by Matthew McDermott, Brooklyn, NY on 09. 5.08
In the past couple of weeks I’ve felt a bit like the bringer of climate change doom here at TreeHugger. Well, here’s something to balance all that out, at least slightly. From Yahoo News/Reuters:
Worst Case: 6.6 Feet Sea Level Rise by 2100
It appears that previous predictions about sea levels rising by 20 feet or more by the end of the this century overstated the case a bit. Tad Pfeffer of the University of Colorado, along with scientists from the University of Montana the University of California at San Diego now say that a “realistic worst-case scenario” for sea level rise is about 6.6 feet (about 2 meters). The same scientists say that about 2.6 feet (80 centimeters) is more likely.
Coastal Cities Will Still Flood, Displace Millions
They do point out though that even this more modest amount of sea level rise would cause major problems in coastal areas and still could result in millions of people losing their homes—Bangladesh would still be devastated; New Orleans, Amsterdam and Venice could easily be inundated.
Thought I’d point out that last part before anyone jumps to their keyboards to type a climate change skeptic “Gotcha! I knew they were lying” comment. Climate change is still very much real, very much happening and still could displace millions of people.
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So why should we believe anything you have to say ever again?
The sky is falling, well, not really. Actually it`s falling, just at a way slower pace. And it`s maybe our fault.
First of all, Yahoo! news is of tabloid quality. There isn't any journalism involved. They are only after front-page sensationalism. Secondly, nobody know how much sea level will rise as there are too many variables involved, half of which are still being realized.
Careful. Looks like you are repeating an unreliable report on the research. According to RealClimate sets the record straight:
"We were going to leave it at that, but we've just seen the initial media coverage where this result is being spun as a downgrading of predictions! (exemplified by this Reuters piece, drawing mainly from the U. Colorado press release). This is completely backwards. We stress that no-one (and we mean no-one) has published an informed estimate of more than 2 meters of sea level rise by 2100. Tellingly, the statement in the paper that suggests otherwise has no reference."
The problem with scientists is that they usually have one a very myopic view of the situation, they focus on their one area of study and leave out all the other factors, two they usually arent willing to stick their necks out because that can lead to loss of funding.
If you look at the history of scientific predictions about global warming and sea level rise you will find that going back just a few years the predictions have been as follows: Never, maybe in a thousand years, 300 yrs, 100 yrs, 30 yrs, 10 yrs, 4 yrs and most recently the latest predictions for a tipping point is NOW, this month.
There are many major factors that are not taken into consideration they usually only look at co2 levels, and dont take into account that massive release of methane which is a 20 times more potent green house gas from subsurface melting hydrates to melting peat bogs in the arctic regions. They also often neglect simple things like glacial and ice cap melting also changes the earth albedo from reflective to absorptive increasing temperatures even faster. If one looks at all factors and the rates of current change you can see the melting of all permanent ice including land based in a just a few short years not many decades. This melting will lead to a 200 ft not 2 ft sea level rise.