James Kunstler on Financial Crisis: There’s Another Tsunami Rising On The Horizon

Kunstler has been screaming TEOTWAWKI every time a fly lands on his nose. It should come as no surprise he says the same thing when something actually DOES happen.

I should note that while I despise his method of thinking (as to what he thinks things "should" become if the end really does come), he has a not surprisingly good grasp on what is really going on. Let it be known that even if I dislike someone, that doesn't make all their points invalid. His capture of Paulson's scheme of holding a gun to Congress is quite apt and realistic, it's a financial ploy to try and hold onto their last remnants so the big boys can get out clean.

He let's it be known that the minute things go south, even if a "good" plan were to go through, you've got a limited amount of time before the government/people/investors go "OH SHIT" and the market continues it's plunge unfettered by anything stopping it this time. It's consummate demise is, as he says, aggravated by the oil prices, our wars, poor leadership in literally every spot in the government, lack of fiscal responsibility on the part of almost everyone, and cats.

I disagree with him most highly on alternative energy. He has made it perfectly clear when the end comes he expects everyone to return happily to a no electricity society. Not only will we not return happily to such a state (when one occurs) we will fight tooth and nail to get out of it. Hell, a steam generator can do enough to keep us out of it, and most wind turbines and solar power are already self-sufficient with minimal maintenance. No, this is the part where he and I start to diverge and it becomes a battle of wills and wits, not meant for this post :)

I appreciate that analogy to religion. That is the best thing I can think of to explain the big heads on the tube. They are taking orders directly from the divine. They wear earsets that tell them what to say, or what they "think" when asked. They have teleprompters that have everything they say written out for them in advance. These are the lowest form of life perhaps, for they have no personality or "soul"
The orders from on high come to them as if by magic and as such can be foretold by none to the masses, for they mighteth maketh a mistaketh and thinketh.

Interesting article, though I took it which a grain of salt since it seemed a bit apocalyptic and swung in a full direction opposite to the people who assume that everything is going to stay the same. I’ll admit with the author, there will be changes since we cannot continue to consume oil and expect the supplies to be forever replenished. However, this article fails to appreciate human intelligence and people’s drive to keep their driving lives relatively the same. You’ll have people who would rather spend the time and effort to make biodiesel at home than give up their car. I’m sure that many of the readers here on Treehugger have already seen examples of this.
If we are forced to give up oil and driving, it probably won’t be sudden – most likely it will be like a slow funeral march to the inevitable with the prices first weeding out the poor, then the middle class, and then the rich last. Prices that will continue to rise as demand out-pace supply (unless more supplies are found/created which is probably more likely to happen).
I’m all for having people drive less and use public transportation more, but I honestly don’t think that this is going to happen until better public transportation is provided in the first place. If we don’t have better public transportation, people will come up with new and creative ways to keep driving not necessarily because we want to, but because we have to.

There's two elements, a fundamental downturn, and a panic. The downturn is bad, but in the most advanced, interrelated, educated economy in the history of mankind, panic is totally irresponsible and really kinda self-defeating. When the system auto-corrects at a lower level, living standards will lower but will still be very high compared to most of the world.

So not only is panic a serious anti-social, anti-intellectual choice, it's also a wrong choice for your own self interest.

People around the world continue to agglomerate in urban centers, creating new economies of scale and efficiencies and cultural bonds, and the world continues to grow more interconnected and fault-tolerant. An energy crisis is a bad thing, but human ingenuity has never ever ever failed.

nevermind the fact that oil prices fell about 10% today amid concerns that slowing economic growth will lead to less rapid energy consumption growth.

I agree with Cybercat, Kunstler is a useful , very often accurate, read but somehow escapist at times, like he as a grip on the guilty fantasy of inevitable, radical short-term change many of us might have.

I agree with Cybercat that the inevitable change of habits he mentions will not come as an actual return to the past but more like a Past Redux, in which technology plays a crucial role.

Unlike Kunstler I may be a bit naif but I place my faith in technology and knowledge as well as in humanity.

I don't think we're ready to give up on hot showers just yet but we could certainly do without 90% of the things we buy and use!

@ Cybercat
Kunstler postulates what he think will happen, not what should or could happen, or even what is possible. If you're not scared, you don't fully appreciate the scope of the problem regarding oil depletion.

Alternative Energy
Alternative energies supply electricity; we're running out of oil. They're used completely differently in our economy and have little overlap. One is not a substitute for the other. Transitioning to a society which has an abundance of electricity, but not oil, requires decades of infrastructure changes and a sea-change in mindset, both of which will start occuring when prices get high, at which point it will be too late to implement the changes. Not to mention that current alternative energy production and implementation methods rely on the underlying fossil-fuel infrastructure to exist. Whether or not they can exist absent that infrastructure is an open question.

Agriculture
Oil, and the also-peaking, non-renewable natural gas are the main components in our agricultural system, allowing for crop production many times what would normally be possible on a given piece of land. From seed to store, fossil fuels till, fertilize, plant, maintain, spray, harvest, prepare, package, and transport the food to market. If at any point one of these links breaks, the harvest is lost. Without oil, or with scarce oil

Oil Producing Countries
The oil producing countries friendly to the US (North sea countries, Mexico, Philipines, etc) have peaked or are peaking. The high-production countries (Russia, Venesuela, Saudi Arabia) have booming economies (thanks to oil revenues) and are diverting more for domestic use. This means that availablity curve will decline even faster than the production curve will, meaning we could be importing much less oil much more quickly than anyone is anticipating.

Politics
As you yourself astutely noted regarding the bailout, the best solution for the greatest number of people is unlikely to be implemented. This applies to peak oil as well. It's entirely possible that as oil supplies dwindle, the rich arrange to get theirs, while the rest of us get none, and no investment in alternatives or other infrastructure. This would lead to an oligarchy with a tiny core of wealthy using dwindling resources to control the poor masses, the way most energy-poor third world nations today.

Plastics and other products
There's hardly a product today that doesn't have some kind of fossil fuel-based input. Look around the room, and imagine everything missing plastic. What do you have left? You'd probably have to get rid of your wooden items, too, as they're protected by oil-based polyurethane. There is no readily available, scalable, cheap substitute.

Medicine
Most medicines use oil as a feedstock. It's a small enough amount that much of it could be generated using other feedstocks, like biodiesel, but this will increase the price and reduce availability.

Transportation
Americans love their cars. Even if decent, inexpensive, scalable electrics are invented, cars have lots of other fossil-fuel inputs: tires, plastics, asphalt, etc. International shipping is all done using diesel engines, with natural gas as a potential replacement, but that will soon be in decline as well. And there will be no airline (passenger OR freight) industry without oil. It's a serious bind.

We'll be very lucky if we're able to implement half of what we need before oil gets too scarce or expensive.

James Kunstler and Derrick Jensen and their ilk want civilization to end. They dream of it. They even talk of helping it along via wars and other evils, arguing, of course, that civilization is the greater evil, which justifies the lesser one.

Hogwash.

And so too with Mr. Kunstler's backwater theories.

We are a hugely piggish culture; that much is quite clear, and that much must change, period. That, or we clock out as a species, yes. I get it, I get it. In a very small way, this is happening; in a bigger way, it will happen more and more now that the American economy is tanking, as it should.

Greed has a steep, steep price.

But--

Hubbert's curve isn't our destiny, unless we choose to let it be so, regardless of Kunstler's and Jensen's pronouncements to the contrary. Just because you scream something, Mr. Kunstler, does not mean it's true. Likely it's false. The truth-tellers, my experience has shown me, are always the quiet ones with the smiles. You obviously do not qualify, in both categories.

I would strongly recommend anyone freaked out by Kunstler's--or anyone else's--doomsday bellowings to check out this excellent article by Toby Hemenway: "Apocalypse Not."

http://www.patternliteracy.com/apocalypse,not.html

He quite effectively debunks Kunstler and Jensen and all others like them, whilst providing a sobering and quiet message that yes, Martha, it's time to downsize, and perhaps even radically; and that we must make some hard choices, and soon, in order to survive. But if you think of it, leaving a McMansion isn't a hard choice: it's the moral choice. There is a big, big difference between the two. It is way past time to stop crowing about all we'll lose, and thinking about all we'll gain.

And no, we won't be going to an electricless society, Mr. Kunstler; nor will we be going back to the stone age, Mr. Jensen.

And thank God.

Wake up, folks. And blow off James Kunstler already.

@rob

Never ever? Read "Collapse" by Jarrad Diamond.

It does fail from time to time. No reason that this has to be one of those, but it could be if we're stupid and simply *assume* everything will come out right...

Rgds

Damon

Kunstler is The Seer. He's been right about practically everything.