It Will Take More Than High Gas Prices To Change Our Habits
by Lloyd Alter, Toronto 
on 09. 2.08
It is a TreeHugger mantra that $10 gas will change everything, and introduce a new era of green building, bike routes and trains everywhere. However according to Elisabeth Rosenthal in the New York Times, that's what they have in Europe and it doesn't appear to have changed much at all. Said one Roman driver: “It hasn’t changed my driving at all — not a bit — I just have to work harder.”
There are obvious differences, since the average European car gets twice the American average, and probably the commutes are not as long. There are also some changes happening; train trips are up, and SUV sales are down, but people are adjusting.
“We do see reports of a significant change in the types of cars people are buying, but I’ve been mostly surprised at the lack of a reaction,” said Peder Jensen, a transportation expert at the European Union’s European Environment Agency in Copenhagen. “One had hoped that these prices would deter driving, but people have coped better than we hoped they would.”
Rosenthal concludes that it takes more than gas prices to make things change:
Recent studies have shown that rising fuel prices have to be combined with government intervention to force lasting changes in the transportation choices that people make.
Phil Goodwin, a professor of transportation policy at the University of West England, said research showed that a 10 percent increase in gas prices produced a 6 to 7 percent drop in fuel consumption over five years, because people drive less and switch to cars that are more fuel efficient.
“Price appears to be a highly effective way of influencing behavior,” Professor Goodwin said. “However,” he added, “price alone doesn’t win popular support or acquiescence. There has to be a package of a variety of different policies, including improvements to public transport, walking and cycling.” ::New York Times
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I was just in Holland and talked to some kids in their early 20s about driving. Not only does the gas disuade them, but the intense/expensive driving courses they're required to take, expensive license itself, and late age (you must be 18 to start the courses), most of them don't even bother. Especially since there's bike lanes everywhere (even seperate paved bike roads out in the countryside) as well as trains everywhere.
I liked how quiet it was everywhere.
Well, it's worth remembering that gas is only $10 due to the current low-dollar relative to the euro. It's really more like €6 or so per gallon here in the Netherlands. Which, when one considers this amount relative to their salary, also in euros, it feels more like $6 than than $10.
That said, after moving to the Netherlands, I know a lot more people here who not only don't have cars, but have never even bothered to get a license. Most people I know ride their bikes to work, and take the train when they need to visit another city. As for me, I've found it very easy to get around without a car.
You're probably right that it will take more than just a price increase, though. In the US (and Canada) it's very difficult to get to anywhere without a car. Even if you want to, you often can't -- either because there is no public transportation along your desired route or because it's not safe (due to lack of sidewalks, bike lanes, etc.)
We need a larger cultural shift for this to work, where we as a society decide to create better public transportation and where cars learn to watch out for bikers and pedestrians.
Who knows -- hopefully the rising gas prices will give us a nudge in that direction.
Gee wiz, you guys are finally finding all this out? Your going to have to change a lot more than Transportation. Your also going to have to change the cost of food, because as it is I am almost at that point of having to decide on if I should fill up the car so I can go to work or buy food (no public transportation out in my neck of the woods).Your going to have to change the cost of housing because if I was to move closer to where I work, my house payment would double.
If I were to buy a new hybrid car, there would be no savings because of the extra Road tax and the high sticker price to buy the thing.
From where I am standing, if the cost of housing was to drop, along with the food prices, along with the cars that get a high mpg, I might see things your way with the higher gas prices.
From Italy.
I may just add that in Italy we have one of the longest commuting time (65,5 minutes/day), but in first half 2008, for the first time in 3 years we see a decline in car use (http://www.isfort.it/sito/pdf/Congiunturali/Semestrali/RS_I_2008.pdf in italian).
The Roman interviewed is an example of perfect miopia, as working hard "to go to work" really seem a useless path.
Other relevant trends are the -26% auto sales in August (y/y) http://www.centrostudipromotor.com/cpage.asp?tab=Pagine&cod=3612&codcat=228
...and the gasoline sales are : -7% in july (http://dgerm.sviluppoeconomico.gov.it/dgerm/consumipetroliferi.asp)
Ciao
~66 minutes per day? Ahh, the good life. What does one do with all of that free time?
- Jack
Bethesda, MD
[tongue firmly in cheek]
Anonymous said:
"Waah! Waah! I dug a hole for myself and now I can't get out! Waaaaah!"
I'm terribly sorry to hear that. I guess it kind of sucks when the town/city/state/country you live in has built you a house of cards, and it starts to get windy.
But hey, it's not like there wasn't a huge blinking neon sign warning you of the danger a few years ago, when some naughty oil producers decided to jack up the price of oil completely arbitrarily. Instead of changing things to compensate, you're now expecting your government to turn communist and arbitrarily fix the price of gas. Puhleeeze.
The other difference you didn't note is that a large portion of the high price of petrol/gasoline in Europe went to taxes to improve their local non-car infrastructures and economies. In other words, they got something for all that money they spent while driving, beyond transport. After world oil production begins its inevitable decline the extra cost (and this will be more significant here in the US) will not have additional benefits. Predicting driving behavior on the basis of the past won't work anymore.
I'm European and although prices have risen they are still well within the affordable for the people who drive more, live outside cities and have big cars.
Change must come from education not by economical impossibilities.
As stated, they already get better mileage, already drive diesels and other more efficient vehicles, and already live in areas with good transit systems. What habits need to change, again?
We in the US, on the other hand, drive SUVs, abhor diesel, predominately live without mass transit, light rail, and commuter rail, and quite a few of us live in STATES that are larger than most European COUNTRIES.
That said, I think sales of the Prius, Fit, Civic, Yaris, and other economical cars, declining sales of SUVs and trucks, closing and retooling of SUV and truck factories, renewed interest in mass transit, and the many, many auto ads now touting fuel economy over size and performance, show that habits are, indeed, changing.
People want lower a lower cost for commuting and they want a cleaner environment, but they do not want to be inconvenienced. The solution to the energy and environmental issues will only be adopted if people actually implement the changes.
There is one option available to commuters which saves fuel, is good for the environment and is actually very convenient for commuters.
Rather than driving across town to work every day, workers can work remotely from Remote Office Centers. Remote Office Centers lease individual offices, internet and phone systems to workers from different companies in shared centers located around the suburbs.
Workers who work from a Remote Office Center use less fuel, and pollute less. They also spend less time in traffic and save money.
There is a free web site for people who are interested in finding a Remote Office Center:
http://www.remoteofficecenters.com
As an American living in Norway, I can attest that $10 per gallon gas does make a difference. As others have mentioned, most of Europe is already adjusted to a more expensive gasoline, with more fuel efficient vehicles and less driving. On the other hand, since most of the cost is tax we are also less affected by changes in the price of crude oil and therefore the last years increases in crude oil have only raised the price of gasoline by 50%, not 200-300% like in the U.S. This means that the incentive to reduce consumption has not increased as much in Europe in the last 3 years as it has in the U.S. In any case, www.rmi.org, shows clearly how to solve the problems in their report Winning the Oil Endgame. Download and read a copy if you haven't seen it yet.
Well, why anyone belive less use of car, whatever price on gas? In Norway many places its the only way to travel to store, job or anywhere.
The government want make a better officcial transport (as Bus, or train) the people need to use the car!