The End of Aviation: What Will Happen When We Can't Afford To Fly?

this is a joke, right?

nobody seriously believes that flying will again be a luxury for the rich, do they?

even if biofuels somehow don't work out in the next few decades, electric flight proves permanently impractical, and ground transportation conservation efforts don't put us into a position where there is excess oil supply worldwide making jet fuel nearly free, we still have coal-to-liquids and oil shale technologies.

while unpopular for carbon reasons, i think the vast majority of voters will choose mobility over environment any day.

I'm not so sure about that. My guess is that the present situation will improve in three ways:

1. The Federal Aviation Administration must implement it's NextGen GPS-based air traffic control system sooner rather than later.
2. More fuel-efficient planes.
3. Design Hypersonic, Hydrogen-fueled planes.

Hydrogen air craft? Yeah, they tried that in the 1930's. It was called the Hindenburg.

What will happen? Perhaps we'll use less jet fuel, I will get a little peace and quiet from all of the jets flying overhead, disease won't spread as fast, videoconferencing might actually take off instead of remaining something we only talk about, our national parks might get less traffic and begin a slow and gradual recovery, less airplane crashes, less lost luggage, less instances of complete submission to the TSA, less..

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." -Mark Twain.

I'm with him on this one. Less travel to far off lands is not for the best. I wouldn't try to argue that flying from Chicago to Las Vegas for the weekend opens your mind. But if everyone's vision of the world beyond their locale was based only on what they saw on the Discovery Channel the world would not be better off.

It will be interesting to see what this does to Hawaii's economy. They've already seen higher unemployment due to layoffs in the airline/tourist/hospitality/service industries, but reducing flights (and cruises) even more will have a significant impact.

Gerald:

#3 doesn't make any sense at all, except from an environmental standpoint. Hydrogen fuel doesn't make flights cheaper, it makes them more expensive (except maybe after some point when fuel is twice as expensive as it is now). This article talks only about how the higher cost of fuel will make flying more expensive and its social impacts.

Coincidentally, unlike a piston engine, the only change you'd have to make to a jet engine so it can run on hydrogen is to the fuel tanks. Jets will run on practically anything, although dirtier fuels have a tendency towards gumming up the works, and hydrogen doesn't qualify.

Seriously? This sounds just like all those people who claim that we'll have less energy in the future due to a lack of fossil fuels.

If you've forgotten, the renewable energy sources we're trying to get people to switch to are far more abundant than anything we've ever used before. And the moment at which they get cheaper than fossil fuels gets closer each time someone tries to pin it down.

Even without biofuels, electric airflight, or hydrogen, cheap renewable electricity+chemistry can yield whatever synthetic fuels we want to power our aircraft. Air travel will get more expensive for a time, but it won't stay that way. We won't let it.

otto - that was one crash. how many crashes have occurred in the airline industry?

I'm pushing for rail. a more relaxing trip all the way around.

@Otto

Repeat after me:
The Hindenburg disaster was not caused by the hydrogen, it was caused by the paint on the skin of the air ship.

Hydrogen as a lift gas does have some flaws, but it did not lead to the disaster.

If you manufactured a replica Hindenburg filled it with helium and put it in the same situation as the original Hindenburg -- it would lead to a very, very similar event.

It took decades and university level research to lead to the above conclusion, which unfortunately has not seeped into the general public's consciousness.

More expensive energy means more expensive transportation, especially air transport. So how expensive will energy get and how fast? DB

Lloyd,

Often I really like your posts ... other times not so much.

This is one of the latter, especially as you have linked to some Treehugger turbo-prop posts but don't include any insight into them as they relate to this post.

Jets are fast but not very efficient, before there were jets there were prop planes. Turbo-props are slower than jets but are considerably more efficient, and as an "aviation bonus" there already are small prop plane engines using diesel instead of high quality jet fuel.

Regular air travel may become slower but it's not going away anytime soon.

I'm all for a massive electric rail system

A lot of wishful thinking here. Airlines are losing money at the moment for several reasons, and fuel prices are only one of them. As Southwest's fuel hedges start to expire around 2010-2012, airfares will start to go up. At the moment everybody is trying to compete with WN on price, while paying twice as much for fuel. As soon as that imbalance goes away, things will settle down a bit. In the meantime, Southwest is trying to use this advantage to put a couple of its competitors out of business in the next few years, a goal which they will probably achieve.

So while airfares will go up (and passengers will be relentlessly nickled and dimed on service), it's inconceivable they'll go up to the extent you are hoping they do. Like other people have pointed out, even if the oil vanishes, we have a lot more shale and coal we can burn.

The airlines, historically, have never been profitable. Why would they start now?

I think this article is more relative in Europe where an individual has the choise between rail and flight. In Europe one can jump on a ryan air or easy jet flight for relatively low cost short distances - sometimes as little as 2euros plus the airport tax. How long can that sustain itself before the carriers are forced to charge more money to fly? But in Europe they have an option to take a train, and it's usually cost and time efficient too.
In general I think flight travel is becoming more expensive making it tougher for some to travel. I'm not sure I see it going back to only being for the elite. And I hope we don't go back to flying in suits because I certainly like to travel in something a little more comfortable than heels and a hat with a feather in it!

This issue goes both ways. Aviation will survive, but in reduced form. Renewable fuels will exist, but they will be pricey...at least as much as we are paying now and probably more. Simply put, biofuels will take a lot of land to "grow", and there is only so much extra land to go around. Prices will have to be high in order to match demand to such a limited supply. However, that supply will not be tiny. Biofuels will be able to replace fossil fuels in the critical areas such as aviation, military, and heavy machinery, where batteries simply cannot provide the energy density necessary to propel the huge machines. We must, however, switch our cars to primarily electric.

Well, the end of aviation means the end of the economy here in Hawaii. Both tourism and boutique agriculture rely completely on it.

Since we import 100% of our fuel (90% electrical generation from diesel) and 90% of our food, we had better start investing in more sustainable practices, and soon.

Its amazing to me how even the most ardent environmentalists break down and admit we'll probably end up powering our aircraft with coal-to-liquids. Its like, we can't ever downsize in America, for that is failure; somehow, we have to keep screwing the environment to support instant gratification in travel.

Electric power derived from renewable (and dare I say nuclear) sources will ultimately become viable as a transportation "fuel" with the advent of more energy dense batteries, and ultracapacitors. Hydrogen, and synthetic fuels derived from biological and electrical means will power aircraft. And the shortage/expense of liquid fossil fuels only serves to accelerate the development of these technologies. We should be thankful for the increase costs of fuel. I for one hope that gas would increase to $10+, similar to western europe.

In a side note: Hawaii sail-based cruises will probably go through the roof, at least if my previous paragraph proves to be untrue.

The economy will reconfigure for less air travel, rather than air travel going extinct. The train system will improve, so flights will more likely just be long-haul. Economies of scale will diminish with shrunken capacity, but there will stilll be a need to move around. I for one look forward to the return of old-fashioned train travel, and maybe some transatlantic boats, the only way to cross!

@vboring
In the next several years, barring some unforeseen technological breakthrough, yes, flying will become too expensive for the masses. It will stay that way for the remainder of your life. It's all about energy density and energy returned on energy invested. Nothing beats jet fuel for energy density. We could produce it out of shale, oil sands, and CTL, but that's expensive to produce and will be sold at world prices anyway ($200-300/barrel). Also it would compete with agriculture, and something tells me people would rather eat than fly.

@Gerald
Both turbo props and propfans are more efficent that turbofan jet engines, sacrificing speed for economy. So that's a possibility, but it would only postpone inevitable price increases. Hydrogen is a possiblity, but the high-pressure tanks would add a lot of weight, and the cost of producing H2 is also an issue.

@Otto
Stop being silly.

@Mike
I totally agree, it's a tragedy. I lived in Japan, and it was a life-changing event.

@lilinoe
As a resident of HI, I am very concerned. The twin pillars of the Hawaiian economy, tourism and boutique agriculture (fresh mangoes, pineapples, etc.), rely on cheap flights. We're in for a rough ride once that falls off significantly over the next few years. On the plus side, housing prices will finally be reasonable again.

@Anthony
Current airline business models are based on cheap fuel. Nothing has the portability and energy density of jet fuel, and there's no way cheaper to get oil than by just pumping it. THose days are over. We maybe able to replace some of it with biofuel and/or aviation grade ethanol (AGE), but in any case, it will become more expensive. Jet fuel is made from oil, which sells at world market prices and has many competing uses, like agriculture. Analysts like Jeff Rubin and Matt Simmons predict the price to be well over $250 in the next few years driving the price of a plane ticket into the $1000s of dollars. Renewables are too diffuse, and concentrating that energy is tricky and expensive (biofuels, H2, etc.)

@TP
Totally agree, a massive highspeed intercity rail system is a must.

@superbad
Fuel prices are the reason 25 airlines have gone bankrupt this year. Historically, fuel expenses have ranged from 10 percent to 15 percent of U.S. passenger airline operating costs, but are currently running between 35 percent and 50 percent. No other cost has risen as much. Current airline business models only turn a profit at $80/barrel oil. The price of oil will never come down again, therefore airlines must adopt a model of fewer but more expensive flights. This will put flying out of the range of much of the population. Oil produced from shale and CTL will still sell at market prices, and that will be expensive.

@egogg
Electric powered airplanes won't fly, at least not for decades. Batteries just don't have enough energy density. And as for Hawaii-based sail cruises, how will people get here? If you try to sail too Hawaii, it will take weeks. No one can afford to take that amount of time off of work.

I just want to express my agreement with JSDreyer, even so far as to agree that having lived in Japan was a life-changing event.

One thing I would like to emphasize that he and several others referred to was the energy density of batteries. Not only would they need to improve by more than an order of magnitude in order to power commercial planes, but they aren't even improving much, nor should we expect them to.
We are already using lithium batteries, and lithium is as light of an element as you are going to find. The energy density of lithium batteries hasn't even doubled in the nearly twenty years since they were invented, and progress on that front has all but ground to a halt. People are mostly focusing on cost, recharge time, and safety, not cramming more energy in. The reason for this is simple: batteries are simple! The first ones were pretty darned good. Indeed, the acid batteries in your car have been around for ages more-or-less unchanged, for this very reason.

Barring some physics-changing revolution, batteries are not going to power big machines like planes. While one can never rule such a thing out, you can't bet on it either.

I would like railways in the US like they have in europe. I don't mind if I get there a bit slower. I would also travel via zeppelin. I would prefer it be unpainted, though even painted I'd give it a go. It looks fun to me even with the possibility of fiery doom.

Monbiot says NO PLANE TRAVEL AT ALL IN NEAR FUTURE. ZERO. google him

@Rtarara

Nice segue --- but no luck on the paint causing your fiery doom. They have better and much less flammable paint on the airship skins now :D

There is a possibility of a an San Fransico based Zeppelin NT selling tours. The ship has been already delivered, but isn't in operation yet.

Flying has become such a chore anyway. You need a day to go each way, and a day at the end to recover. Why not just take a 3 day train?

NY-LA, figure 3500 miles with the optimum route - that's 50 miles an hour!

The Titanic took (5?) days to cross, held 2000-plus people (and that could be raised substantially with technology cutting the crew size substantially) and was only 50,000 horsepower! With computers, weather radar, GPS, and modern drive-by-wire, trie insurance costs are far lower. And people can keep in touch with their business affairs via the interwebs.

There are several reason that cost have ioncreased in the industry butone big factor that everyone overlooks is the fact that the airlines have failed to invest in newer planes and technology, instead they have given massive bonuses to the top management while disregarding the fact that the American fleet is outdated. Instead they have stop many services and added extra charges rather that changing management that is loking to the future welfare of the industry and the passenger. Biofuels from food sources ,such as corn, has had a negaive affect on the cost of food and was just another indicaton of political interference and fiscal mismanagement.Also anyone consider the airport fees that have incresaed because of mayybe corruption and mismanagement?

(...and when we all return to train travel, it will be mandatory for guys to wear fedoras and high pants, and ladies will have to wear funny hats and Ike jackets! )

I'm all for building up the rail network to be built up. We can invest in high speed trains that way people can get there in the same amount of time (if not faster), it's cheaper, and less emissions.

The facts being the facts I would only underline that tourist flights are poised to suffer the most while already business travel will have to adapt simply because the overall economy pressures.
While algae/bio fuels sound fine, the road to homogenization is long and depends too much on politics and the shifting market.
The sunny side is that local (whatever that means to you or me) economy should bloom as well as investment for alternative power sources and technology.

"airlines must adopt a model of fewer but more expensive flights"

Not arguing that at all, just questioning the doomsday scenario laid out in the original post. Airlines are going bankrupt because they can't raise prices at the moment- Southwest would beat them up and take their lunch money. As soon as Southwest has to pay the same price for fuel as everyone else, prices will come up. Of course, the reason that a lot of these guys are going into chapter 11 is to rid themselves of their pension and retiree health care obligations. Not very many major airlines have turned out the lights and liquidated.

This idea that we're headed for the end of widespread air travel is absurd. A 25% increase in airfares doesn't mean the only people flying will be movie stars and hedge fund managers.

There is also a practical ceiling on how high oil can go, and it is governed by our virtually unlimited supply of coal and shale. As soon as it becomes consistently cheaper to refine fuel from those sources than from crude oil, the price of crude oil will stop rising. I don't know what that upper limit is, but it's not going to be nearly high enough to shut transportation down.

"It will be interesting to see what this does to Hawaii's economy. They've already seen higher unemployment due to layoffs in the airline/tourist/hospitality/service industries, but reducing flights (and cruises) even more will have a significant impact." lilinoe

I think lilinoe hit the nail right on the head. Hawaii is probably the most oil dependent state in the USA. The end of cheap airfare would bring severe changes to our economy to the point where most people would leave (by boat).

My solution is that Hawaii needs an aggressive energy policy, a Hawaiian Apollo project. If we could make bio jet fuel here then the planes will keep on coming, they can refuel here. We also need to start generating our own electricity, probably thermal solar, geothermal (Big Island) are the most feasible. This would also help keep dollars here in the state and preserve our Aina.

Actually having a bunch of people move off island might not be such a bad thing, I just don't want Hawaii turning into a Mad Max type of place.

rob,

I believe Hawaii's #1 money maker is the military. I think Hawaii is probably the per capita king of pork barrel spending.

Refering to the first comment- we currently have the option to choose mobility over the environment, but that option will not last! Oil is a limited resource, and whether or not you care about the environment, we should care about finding alternative energy. Until we do that, flying will become more of a luxury.

Personal, I am a big fan of a better train system because we have already established great ways of sustainably producing electricity.