New Software Allows Wind Farms to Predict Output Up to Four Days in Advance
by Matthew McDermott, New York, NY on 08.12.08
image: Energy & Meteo
Recently I wrote about a new online solar power calculator which, though it appears to currently be in unannounced public beta testing, will give consumers the ability to try out various configurations of solar panels before taking the renewable energy plunge.
Software Allows Wind Farms to Predict Output
On a different scale entirely, a new piece of software developed in Germany is being used to predict electrical output from existing wind farms. By providing a level of predictability, the Previento system allows German grid operators to determine how much additional fossil fuel energy will be needed to compensate for lulls in wind energy output.
Dr Matthias Lange of Energy & Meteo systems, the software’s developer, is quoted in Renewable Energy World:
The German electricity industry has to able to plan today how much electricity it will need tomorrow as well as how that electricity will be produced. That is what our system helps them to do. Accurate predictions about wind power allow grid operators to save millions of euros through efficient scheduling.
Predictions Up to Four Days in Advance Possible
Previento can provide reliable predictions up to four days in advance and with a time resolution of up to 15 minutes for any location in Germany and Europe, according to Energy & Meteo. It does this by drawing on a variety of weather models, from multiple sources and adds in variables such as the local terrain of the particular wind farms before making a final calculation. Additionally, the software calculates a margin of error for each situation.
Other Utilities Have to Work Around Wind Output
Germany currently generates 7.2% of its electricity through wind power, which is a large enough amount that other utilities have to adjust themselves around the exact amount of power wind farms are producing.
Records Are Set Through Definitions
Recently the American Wind Energy Association tried claiming that, even though Germany has a higher installed wind capacity than the United States (22.2 GW in Germany versus 19.6 GW in the US), the US actually generates more power from wind than does Germany. That may be splitting hairs a bit, but nonetheless wind energy still generates only about 1% of total electric supply in the US. Though neither is up to the percentage mark set by Spain.
via :: Renewable Energy World and :: Energy & Meteo
Wind Power
USA is the Number One Biggest Wind Energy Producer
Wind Power Produces 123% of Residential Energy Demand in Rock Port, Missouri
New Wind Power Record in Spain: 40.8% of Total Demand!
The assumption here- a quite reasonable one- is that the slack from times of low wind production will be picked up by fossil fuels. Fossil fuel plants (meaning coal- oil and gas are already used this way) will be used more like peaking plants as renewable energy becomes the dominant source. Biogas and waste-to-energy would make good peaking plants, too. And eventually, energy storage will be developed to eliminate the need for these entirely.
Longer forecasting range is definitely a plus for intermittent energy sources.
I do have a question, though. Suppose we do begin replacing our fossil fuel electricity, but with a mix of renewables and nuclear. How long does it take to increase or decrease the output of a fleet of nuclear plants? This would be important today if a country like France wanted to add more renewables to its power mix on a large scale. Is 4 days sufficient, or would tha require additional advances in forecasting?
If you really want to have fun, try meshing this output with a prediction of demand. After all, I should think demand for air-cooling and refrigeration would peak during periods of low pressure, when an air mass stagnates over a region and heats it up!