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Home-Sourcing Trend Could Get You A Green Job: The Upside Of Costly Oil

by John Laumer, Philadelphia on 08. 2.08
Cars & Transportation

cargo containers photo

Not only is the world no longer "flat," greener jobs are coming to the USA as a result - in factories with 'down-home' supply chains. People don't need to lobby or protest to make it happen. By subsidizing it's own oil demand growth, China has effectively added a 9% tariff on its exports.

It is as if there exists an as yet un-named economics version of the Gaia Hypothesis emerging around increased shipping costs. Example:

To avoid having to ship all its products from abroad, the Swedish furniture manufacturer Ikea opened its first factory in the United States in May.
Home-sourced products are coming for rich people too.

Tesla planned to manufacture 1,000-pound battery packs in Thailand, ship them to Britain for installation, then bring the mostly assembled cars back to the United States. But when it began production this spring, the company decided to make the batteries and assemble the cars near its home base in California, cutting more than 5,000 miles from the shipping bill for each vehicle.
The moral of this story is simple. If the oil prices stay high, fuel-intensive product life cycles must change, or companies that depend on them go bust. Anything made with a lot of steel is going to undergo some business model revisions (as opposed to design changes), sooner than later.

NYT tells us how serious it is:

The cost of shipping a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the United States has risen to $8,000, compared with $3,000 early in the decade, according to a recent study of transportation costs
Green oxymoron coming: a fair amount of the “just-in-time” deliveries are destined to become "not-in-time," as shipments have to slow down to save fuel. Olympic swimmers: faster; cargo containers, not so much.

Could this be the demise of the black belt in Six Sigma, or whatever it's now being called?

The Times has a terrific article here, and we highly recommend it if you are in need of a boost of optimism.

The only thing they overlooked is the positive impact on climate, which TreeHugger has addressed previously (see listings below).

Via:NYT, Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization

Cargo Ships Emit Twice as Much Soot as Previously Thought: NOAA ...
Cargo Ship with Kites: First Trans-Atlantic Trip a Success ...
The World Is No Longer Flat :

Image credit::TradeAsia.net, cargo containers in port

Comments (3)

Two things:

1. The world is still flat: It's not like IKEA ceased to be a Swedish company the moment it started building products in the United States. Toyota is still Japanese even if it builds its cars in Mississippi.

There are, in my mind, two forms of globalization. The first is "hard" globalization, where hard goods travel around the world. This is the kind where cars and whatnot get shipped around the world. The second is "soft" globalization, where soft goods travel instantaneously through the Internet and all other forms of communication. This allows a Japanese company to build a plant in Mississippi and sell its products in North America while teleconferencing and getting all necessary data at a moment's notice.

It's still a globalized, interconnected world, but now we don't use gobs and gobs of fuel to get physical product tot he customer. Same result, really, but more efficient.

So yes, the world is still "flat," but now it's ideas that keep it flat, rather than airplanes and ships.

2. Six sigma is hardly threatened by oil prices, since it's largely a process of maintaining quality at the production site. It's really just a way of assuring that products are within three standard deviation of the mean in either direction, and that those three standard deviations are all still of acceptable quality.

Hence, "six sigma" (sigma refers to a standard deviation.) No, don't worry-- the black belts will all keep their jobs. If anything, quality control will be more important as jobs come back to the US.

jump to top UCLAri says:

"Toyota is still Japanese even if it builds its cars in Mississippi."

Considering Japanese CEO pay is far more in line with the average workers pay than a US CEO's salary is, I have no issue with that, and I imagine a Toyota factory worker in the US is thankful to have a well paying job, and one that offers a 401k, and not a mismanaged pension.

I think there is more to the Tesla battery story than there is room for, and The governator has something to do with it!

jump to top JC says:

JC,

That's true to an extent, though it still is yet to be seen if the Japanese will keep their previously fabulous balance between rich and poor. The GINI coefficient has been growing even in Japan-- this is probably not surprising in a country that has a national debt of 180% of GDP and slow economic growth for almost two decades.

Nonetheless, Toyota is still probably a much better-managed company than anything Detroit has offered in the past, oh, half-century or so. Still, a close inspection of even Toyota will show that the whole "Toyota production system," and the previously fantastic pension, job security, etc., hasn't held up well the past decade. Ulrike Schaede (a fairly well-known Japanologist/Japan business expert) pointed out that temp hires have become far more common even at Toyota and Honda, once known for their lifetime employment. Perhaps things will change in the next decade? Hard to say.

Either way, I think that Sachs was right in that article. It's far too early to be so glib about the "death of globalization." Globalization is not about shipping cheap plastic buttons from Guangzhou to Texas. Globalization is about trade being internationalized and unrestricted. If people stop trading physical goods, then so be it. They'll still trade ideas-- something with just as much value.

jump to top UCLAri says:

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