High Gas Prices Mean Fewer Traffic Fatalities
by Lloyd Alter, Toronto 
on 08.26.08
We noted earlier a study from the Harvard Medical School that calculated that for every 10% increase in gas prices there was a 2.3% decline in auto deaths.
Now a new report from Michael Sivak of the Transportation Research Institute at the University of Michigan finds an even more dramatic fall. Associated Press reports that:
Over the previous 10 months, monthly fatalities declined an average of 4.2 percent compared to the previous year. Then, Sivak's data shows, fatalities dropped 22.1 percent in March and 17.9 percent in April of this year...The declines found by Sivak suggest that motorists reached what he calls a "tipping point" and have begun significantly changing their behavior — altering not only how much they drive, but where, when and how they drive. Sivak said early data for May and June show similar trends.
"There is something more than just the reduction in driving that has to be brought in as an explanation for the huge drop in fatalities," Sivak said.
Kids can't afford to cruise like they did in American Graffiti
Joan Lowy continues for AP:
"Experts who have studied motor vehicle fatality trends said one reason for the dramatic decline is that people are reducing their nonessential driving first, which is often leisure driving at night or on weekends. That also happens to be riskier than daylight commuting on congested highways at lower speeds.
Teenage and elderly drivers — who also have higher accident rates — are more likely to feel the pinch of higher gas prices, and thus may be cutting back more than other drivers. Federal data also shows that driving declines have been more dramatic on rural roads, which have higher accident rates than urban highways.
And, some drivers are simply trying to save on gas by slowing down, which also decreases risk." ::Associated Press
I will repeat here what I wrote on the last post about this subject, High Gas Prices = Fewer Auto Deaths:
"It is a virtuous cycle where high gas prices lead to lower speeds and smaller cars. Lower speeds mean fewer and less destructive accidents, and less need for so much heavy crash protection and air bags, leading to even lower fuel consumption. Smaller, lower, perhaps even more vulnerable cars lead to more interaction with other people on the road, like cyclists.
We don't need hydrogen cars and new technology, we just need better, smaller designs, lower speed limits and no big SUVs on the road to squish them."
Lots of Good Things Happen when You Drive Slowly
Small Cars "Almost Cheaper Than Walking"
55 MPH: It's time to bring it back.
Another Reason to Drive 55 : You Take Better Pictures
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Faced with higher fuel prices, we drive less, but also drive a little slower. Often just a little slower will increase safety by a lot. It has been shown that the safest driving is when everyone is going the same speed. With people (including me) slowing down, there is less speed difference, and if people are thinking to conserve fuel, they are less likely to drive crazy.
perhaps the two groups of drivers that seem to me to drive the fastest are large pickups and young kids. Since the cost is highest to large trucks, they are slowing down. Kids have less $, so they have to slow down.
I guess it is not surprising to me...if we drive slower, the first thing we will cut out happen to be the more dangerous moves.
Does that mean we should thank OPEC for saving American loves? Hmmm.
er... I'm sorry, did I miss it where they explain how miles driven has not decreased? I mean it's right there on the graph, you'd think someone would mention that people are driving just as much as they were before. Because it's there, in the graph, where it shoes how much people are driving. If you look closely, you can almost see there is a slight increasing upcurve. So, people aren't driving less, according to the graph, that you are saying says people are driving less.
The graph is tricky. It shows monthly change. Ie the slight upward in the end just means that the miles driven is now decreasing slower than previously, not that it's increasing.
I've definitely noticed a slowdown in the speed on northeast highways- everyone's driving the speed limit except the few daredevils that whiz through. It used to be that most cars drove 10 miles above the speed limit on these same roads. Has speeding ticket revenue decreased?
I can think of a couple reasons why fatalities may drop faster than miles driven, outside of the obvious reduction in speed. First, people are not likely to give up their commute - they are giving up optional trips for fun and entertainment. It is far more likely you encounter a drunk or tired driver on your way home from the movie than your way home from work. Additionally, many of these optional trips occur at night, which is more dangerous than driving during the day. Also, traffic speeds in may places are actually faster at night, as traffic has cleared. I would be interested in seeing if there was a time effect on this data.
Joe writes: "er... I'm sorry, did I miss it where they explain how miles driven has not decreased? "
Look harder. When the miles driven goes down, the fatalities go down. When the miles driven go up, the fatalities go up. The graph shows this. What the graph does not show very well is the seasonal variation. People always drive more in the summer so there will be an upswing. The important thing to note is that both miles driven and fatalities in summer 2008 were lower than summer 2007. Nothing like this has been seen in recent years.
Learn more about The Truth About… Gas Prices at http://www.thetruthabout.com
I may be a cynic but, these high prices are hurting the economy. when it dies then no one will be driving and that would put fatalities at 0. That make as much sense as killing all the people so that there will be peace.
This is obviously hyperbole. The point is, the US is coming to an impass between Green and reality.