Arctic Climate Tipping Point Happening Now! Sea Ice in Its “Death Spiral” Scientist Claims
by Matthew McDermott, Brooklyn, NY on 08.27.08
image: NSIDC
After yesterday’s ominous news that North American permafrost (and presumably European and Asian, as well) stores 60% more greenhouse gases than we thought, here’s another siren announcing that we are rushing full speed ahead towards a climatic tipping point:
Scientists are reporting that the extent of sea ice in the Arctic is at the second lowest point on record. Currently ice covers 2.03 million square miles; last year's sea ice coverage, 1.59 million square miles, set the record. In the past ten years Arctic sea ice has declined 10 percent.
Given the seriousness of the situation, I’ll let the scientists speak for themselves:
We Are Watching the Tipping Point Happen
Mark Serreze, a scientist from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado was quoted by Reuters:
No matter where we stand at the end of the melt season it’s just reinforcing this notion that Arctic Ice is in its death spiral.
Serreze also told the AP that:
We could very well be in that quick slide downward in terms of passing a tipping point. It’s tipping now. We’re seeing it happen now.
Climate Change Happening More Quickly Than Models Have Predicted
The same article quoted NASA ice scientist Jaw Zwally as saying that within 5-10 years the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer. He added that this also means that:
Climate warming is also coming larger and faster than the models are predicting and nobody’s really taken into account that change yet.
As a commenter pointed out in my post on permafrost from yesterday, this is really the sort of news that should be on the front page of every newspaper, at the top of the broadcast of every nightly news service. I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment.
It's hard to not sound shrill with this: Climate change is happening more quickly than we thought in the Arctic and the frozen soils in the region contain a lot more stored carbon than the models used so far. Unless we get a handle on this now (yesterday would've been even better) global warming could very well overtake our efforts to slow it. That's not to say that we should throw in the towel (as no doubt some people will think) but rather is another sign that we have to redouble our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on a global level.
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Q: So doesn't that imply that last year was the worst, and this year things dramatically improved?
The sooner we can get this ice jam cleared out from the Arctic the sooner ships can start taking this long-sought after shortcut with resulting fuel savings. In these days of high gas prices, every little bit helps keep prices down for consumers. The end result will be millions of lives saved due to lower food costs. People are starving all over the world and this is one piece in the puzzle of food security. It's not just a matter of having enough food, it's also a matter of having it at the right place at the right time at the right cost. These scientists should be applauded.
Yet again, the national press and TV news stations are more concerned about whether "Clinton supporters will support Obama" instead of focusing on issues that will determine the future of civilization. This should be 180 point at the top of all newspapers in the country.
I think most people have at least a moderate concern for the environment and climate change, however most people feel powerless to do much about it, so they go about their lives as normal, hoping for the best.
The only way for this problem to be avoided is if all the world govenments got together and made a serious and far reaching plan to tackle it globally.
That is never going to happen.
Yes, this is sobering. I don't have any children's futures to worry about, so frankly, at this point I actually hope it's true and things start getting worse, so people will wake up. I know someone who's been complaining to her kids' school board that the school is teaching global warming as "fact" versus "theory." These are well-educated and wealthy people. I don't know what else will sway people like these, unless it's disaster on a global scale. And maybe even then they will feel it is all in God's plan and that Baby Jesus will save them. Sorry, I do feel quite like throwing in the towel here, as you can probably tell.
This reminds me of an old episode of "In Search of.." from the 1970's, with host Leonard Nimoy telling us all how the arctic ice is thickening, and soon won't melt in winter as the earth's temperatures plummet as we experience "global cooling". Supposedly there was all this data that "proved" that the Earth's average temperature had been falling over the last century, when evil Mankind unleashed the automobile on the unsuspecting world.
Where did all this data go? That's right, it didn't support the Global Warming myth, which is coincidentally also caused by the horseless carriage.
This from http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/quikscat-20071001.html
"Nghiem said the rapid decline in winter perennial ice the past two years was caused by unusual winds. "Unusual atmospheric conditions set up wind patterns that compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of the Arctic," he said. When that sea ice reached lower latitudes, it rapidly melted in the warmer waters. " Sorry, kids, no global warming.
Can I tattoo this on Sen. Inhofe's forehead?
.......... s'not
Just s'not :(
Stories like these want to make me have more than a few beer and not in a celebrating a good event kind of way :(
JSDreyer, it's not as if the presidential election was irrelevant to the subject. Obama is not my hero (nor Hillary), but he will reverse our current policy while a McCain presidency would be set us back another four years. And at some point, perhaps already, perhaps not, we are simply going to run out of time.
And guess what, without Hillary's supporters, Obama isn't going to make it.
Another way of looking at this:
Sea ice revoers after a couple of bad years. Predictions are for an early and very cold winter....
This winter will likely be both long and horribly cold.
Buy your woollies now folks.....
"As a commenter pointed out in my post on permafrost from yesterday, this is really the sort of news that should be on the front page of every newspaper, at the top of the broadcast of every nightly news service. I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment."
In that case, can you make sure it stays on the front page of treehugger for at least a week? It's not CNN or Fox, but it's still a big website. Maybe people will think of walking or biking for a while...
This news is really really depressing.
Don't worry! Tonight on Battleground Earth, Ludacris and Tommy Lee team up to cover the entire ice cap with organic hempcloth, bleached white by goat urine, then stage a massive Lat 90 party featuring locally grown, organic items... :P
So, let me get this straight, ice increases from last year (albeit a record low) by 28%, and that increase is further signal of a death spiral. Come on kids, when someone says "No matter where we stand at the end of the melt season it’s just reinforcing this notion that Arctic Ice is in its death spiral.", they are telling you to ignore the facts and continue to belch out the mantra.
Reports at the beginning of summer is that all arctic sea ice was to be melted THIS summer http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/03/arctic-ice-cap-gone.php . Didn't happen, quite the opposite.
THIS behavior is fear mongering.
Wait, we have 500k square miles more sea ice this year than last yet we've reached a tipping point??? I can't see the logic there....
Ok so this is the second highest meltback? Sounds to me like it is starting to go the other way. Until we get a few more years under our belt to see what it is doing we will never know. This past year we have seen more snow, rain and cooler weather than we have in years. Some places may be warmer but I can assure you Maine is not one of them. Maine is not the only place reporting this either. I see reports of the same trends in Europe and other places. As well as record snowfalls across the globe.
Meh, I'm a sociopath with a garden and a shotgun. Bring on the starving climate refugees.
@ Glenn
This feedback cycle where less ice reflects less heat causing the air and sea to warm resulting in less ice the next year and on and on? Yeah, that's called "global warming."Do you work for Exxon? A little disclosure would go a long way here. Wait, are you Glenn Beck?
At this point trying to deny anthropomorphic global warming is like denying the Earth is round. Could it be possible that wind change is caused by the increased entropy on the surface of the planet? After all, global temps on average are much higher than a century ago. From the same article:
@ Alonso
The US Presidential election is the most important variable in determining how global warming is addressed. My point is that the press is caught up trying to create narrative from petty non-issues like "Will Clinton supporters vote for Obama?" when polls clearly show over 80% of Clinton supporters support Obama. It's a petty non-issue, but the press exaggerates it b/c it fits their pre-determined narrative. A true independent media (not one beholden to corporate interests like our current media) that served the public would be pushing important issues into the national debate instead of pushing inane, meaningless flag pin, bowling, or he-said-she-said stories.
@ andrewksu
A single failed prediction doesn't mean the trend is incorrect. The trend, year over year, is a retreat of sea ice, whether caused by heat directly or wind changes initiated from increased surface heat. Since we've had the top 10 hottest years in recorded history in the last 15 years, that trend will obviously continue.
www.gfdl.noaa.gov/research/climate/highlights/GFDL_V1N1_gallery.html
JSDreyer,
Maunder minimum aka "little ice age", mid evil warm period, the 30's were hotter than today, and on and on. Climate is cyclical and our influence on CLIMATE is minuscule.
Look through history (600,000+ years) and you'll see a quite normal pattern where we are currently cooler than previous peaks and fits quite well with the normal swings. Anthropomorphic warming is arguably undetectable and is made irrelevant when considering the SUN and historical climate cycles.
Our impact on the environment is worth more concern, but that hasn't generated the buzz and fear that the climate catastrophe tripe has. Many people stand to profit monetarily and politically by pushing this junk. Notice you haven't heard much about ethanol lately, where 4 months ago that was all of the rage. People quickly realized that burning food for fuel was a rash and silly idea. Billions were wasted on that non sense.
We should and will switch to alternative energy when they are viable, but politicians can't will innovation, only hype and wasted dollars.
The only threat to the ongoing natural warming in the 1500 year climate fluctaation is a new little ice age, and it seems to be a very big threat! It's annoying that the ice loss isn't as large this year than last year. That indicate a phase shift towards coling. :-(
(Btw, AGW is the biggest scam in modern science history.)
I do not understand what makes humans think that they can just turn on and off mother nature. Mother nature has her own ideas. We should keep on the path of cleaning up the environment, food supply and reduce our need for non- renewable resources and forget sensationalizing climate change. The climate will change where we are here or not. It is becoming a bore and people are tired of hearing about it. Let us take a positive stance and say we want clean water, nourishing food and clean air for everyone on this planet and give mother nature her due.
The only threat to an ongoing antropogenic warming is a little ice age, and it seems to be a real threat! It's annoying that the ice loss isn't larger this year. There a risk for the important actions if we enter a phase of coling. :-(
(Btw, Skeptics are the scum of the world!)