most popular:
Global Warming and War?



planet green: Home Improvement


most popular:
Un-TreeHugger Products


Why the Arctic Won’t Keep Our Cars Running: Arctic Oil Reserve Potential a Quarter of Previous Estimates

by Matthew McDermott, New York, NY on 07.24.08
Science & Technology

arctic spring ice melting
photo by Baine via flickr

A couple of months ago we reported on how the Las Vegas firm Arctic Oil & Gas announced that the Arctic could contain 400 billion barrels of oil, a figure that would be more than double the largest conventional oil field in the world, Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar—an oil field, which, despite Saudi claims to the contrary, is likely in terminal decline.

Oil Potential in Arctic Revised Downward
Well, not so fast: According new(er) data from the US Geological Survey, that 400 billion barrel figure is a little bit high. The USGS estimates that the Arctic probably contains only 90 billion barrels of oil. Certainly nothing to sneeze at—it’s equal to Russia’s total known reserves—and an amount that could still easily lead to boundary disputes in the region as nations try to take what they think is their fair share.

How Long Would 90 Billion Barrels Last?
The question I asked when I first saw the 400 billion barrel figure was ‘how many years at current consumption levels will this oil last?’. Obviously it would take time to extract all that oil, so the oil will last longer than my basic calculation indicates, but it’s a useful exercise to put it all in perspective.

The answer for the 90 billion barrels the USGS thinks the oil contains: Just about 3 years of current world demand. Or about 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil, again according to USGS estimates.

So, for those people out there hoping for a bit of petroleum deus ex machina, some vast new undiscovered oil field just revealing itself in the nick of time, the Artic isn’t it.

via :: BBC News

Oil
Arctic Could Contain 400 Billion Barrels of Oil
World Oil Demand Growth to Outpace Non-Opec Supply Growth: IEA
Hidden Oil Subsidies: We Need to END Them

Comments (7)

I stand by the notion that oil should be for emergencies. Power is down, we temporarily aren't getting energy from a source we usually use and so we use a little bit of oil to get us back on our feet and fix the problem. Drilling for oil cannot and probably will not be the solution to lowering all around energy and food costs. We've come too far to get away from using oil to just give up this easily. I also think that we are going to really have to support the cause of "no more drilling for the wrong reasons"because there are so many people who are "hurting" right now that need fuel prices to come down. we can't let this happen

Sean Keller
Associate Editor
Green Collar Economy

jump to top Sean Keller says:

I'm against drilling. TreeHugger, though, responds to the question of drilling in a way that is absurd. 3 years of the world's total oil demand; world demand is 86 Million barrels a day. This is not 3 years supply, because you're not going to supplant the entire world's demand with oil from the arctic. Even if you supplant 20% of the world's supply, that's 15 years.

But that's not all. The article also points out that the Arctic holds 30% of the world's natural gas - three times the amount of oil the region holds.

I'm sorry, but you just sound ridiculous always answering any claim of discovered oil with a hemming and hawing "no, it's not really *that* much, actually." I'm against the drilling because dropping the price of oil means the death of the solar industry, which is the cleanest and most sustainable energery source. And, more oil = more pollutants. That's why I'm against drilling, not because "it's really not worth all the enviro damage because there's not actually any oil up there."

------
Author response: I agree entirely that the reason not to drill in the Arctic is not because there's not that much there but because of the pollution from fossil fuels. The point of the post was to point out that, despite claims/hopes to the contrary from some quarters, there isn't a great wellspring of fossil fuels under the ice and that whether if you view the situation from one of pollution or resource scarcity, we need to move beyond fossil fuels.

jump to top Bill S. says:

Hmm, and how much will the rest of the reserves last?

America needs to stay FOCUSED, AWARE and EDUCATED.

History reminds us that every time oil prices peak and the North American market/consumers start to discuss alternative energy sources, the oil exporting countries start to trim down their prices. History also tells us that the oil exporting nations have been very successful in the past and in fact, we have lost our enthusiasm and dropped many of our alternative energy initiatives after oil prices are reduced.

WE need to stay focused this time.

1) Al Gore and his energy initiative is on course.
2) T. Boone Pickens and his wind power initiative is on course.
3) BG Automotive Group’s mass production electric vehicle program is on
course.
4) The Gas Reduction Act of 2008 might not be the most environmentally sound
solution, but yet it shows that Congress has finally realized that we have an
energy crisis (again), and a real threat to our national security.

The continued dependence on foreign oil is a threat to our long term democratic values. We must become an energy independent nation, and with this, some sacrifices will have to be made by the American consumer.

Be aware!!
We are exporting approximately USD $700 Billion dollars per year of U.S. currency. The majority of this money is being transferred to the Trillion dollar “sovereign wealth funds”. This is USD $700 Billion not being spent on America’s educational system, health care and security.

The “sovereign wealth funds” are directly buying major interests (large blocks of stock) in U.S. companies, including most of the major banks. Also, billions of dollars of “sovereign wealth fund” money is being invested in our hedge funds, private equity firms, and the investment banking industry. A few of these firms are directly and indirectly investing large sums of money into our “gas combustion” automobile industry. Do we want our auto industry in the direct or indirect control of the firms that are supplying us oil? This is an interesting topic for an investigative reporter.

There are automotive consulting companies in Michigan (heart of our auto industry), lobbying States and our Federal Government, NOT to subsidize the Electric Vehicle industry. The latter seems to be contradictory to what the American public would like to see from our automobile industry. After the billions (excess of $20 billion) the automotive companies have lost in the past 6 months producing gas combustion vehicles, you would think they too would change course. Changing course is not adding 2-4 miles per gallon w/Hybrids. Drastic measures in our auto industry must take place and NOW!

Do not let the temporary reduction in oil prices push us of course….AGAIN.

Read, Read, Read- Stay on top of the issues. Let’s not be fooled again.

STAY FOCUSED, AWARE and EDUCATED!

jump to top BEGREEN says:

From a very quick look at some of the USGS website presentations, I wouldn't expect much oil from the arctic offshore for a long time, even if there were no objections at all...They are estimates, nothing actually found, based on the best information so far available. They are for "technically recoverable in the absence of sea ice" deposits. Economic recoverability isn't a consideration....DB

jump to top Dan Brockman says:

I think we need to explore these oil reserves and get them ready so we can start drilling in a jiffy if needed. It would only take a few disruptions in our current supply to bring great pain and ultimately anarchy.

You might not care now because you have a sustainable garden but you might when a crowd of hungry people raid your food.

jump to top eric says:

Everybody keeps talking about this 90 billion barrels as if it actually exists. From "Rolling the Dice on the last untruned stone of World Oil and Gas Resources" by J. David Hughes, as found in Aug. 4 issue of Peak Oil Review:

"For all 7 [of the total 25] geological provinces for which these more detailed data are provided there is a total of 3 billion barrels of oil at the 95% confidence level, 11.8 billion barrels at the 50% confidence level and 96.7 billion barrels at the 5% confidence level, and the USGS reports a “mean” estimate of 28.9 billion barrels"

I wouldn't bet 20 bucks on 50% odds, and here we're betting national energy policy on it?

And that is the oil that is technically recoverable *absent sea ice*. I'd wager that if you include the known facts that this potential oil is in areas known to have sea ice (at least for the time being) then it is not technically recoverable (since that means recoverable using currently existing technologies and equipment).

jump to top DaveK says:

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)




th top picks