Time for Plan B: Cutting Carbon Emissions 80 Percent by 2020
by Lester Brown, Washington, D.C on 07.16.08
Lester Brown
Since releasing Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, my colleagues at Earth Policy Institute and I have been trying to work out how to draw attention to the plan we developed for cutting carbon emissions 80 percent by 2020. Today we released a report that contains the key elements of this plan. It is called Time for Plan B.
When political leaders look at the need to cut carbon dioxide emissions to curb global warming, they ask the question: How much of a cut is politically feasible? At the Earth Policy Institute we ask a different question: How much of a cut is necessary to avoid the most dangerous effects of climate change?
By burning fossil fuels and destroying forests, we are releasing greenhouse gases, importantly carbon dioxide (CO2), into the atmosphere. These heat-trapping gases are warming the planet, setting in motion changes that are taking us outside the climate bounds within which civilization developed.
We cannot afford to let the planet get much hotter. At today’s already elevated temperatures, the massive Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets—which together contain enough water to raise sea level by 12 meters (39 feet)—are melting at accelerating rates. Glaciers around the world are shrinking and at risk of disappearing, including those in the mountains of Asia whose ice melt feeds the continent’s major rivers during the dry season.
Delaying action will only lead to greater damage. It’s time for Plan B.
The alternative to business as usual, Plan B calls for cutting net carbon dioxide emissions 80 percent by 2020. This will allow us to prevent the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, already at 384 parts per million (ppm), from exceeding 400 ppm, thus keeping future global temperature rise to a minimum.
Cutting CO2 emissions 80 percent by 2020 will take a worldwide mobilization at wartime speed. First, investing in energy efficiency will allow us to keep global energy demand from increasing. Then we can cut carbon emissions by one third by replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources for electricity and heat production. A further 14 percent drop comes from restructuring our transportation systems and reducing coal and oil use in industry. Ending net deforestation worldwide can cut CO2 emissions another 16 percent. Last, planting trees and managing soils to sequester carbon can absorb 17 percent of our current emissions.
None of these initiatives depends on new technologies. We know what needs to be done to reduce CO2 emissions 80 percent by 2020. All that is needed now is leadership.
The full 8-page report is available in pdf. For the research-minded, a footnoted edition is also available. The report pulls together information found in chapters 11 and 12 in releasing Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization available for free downloading at www.earthpolicy.org.
Can it be done? Absolutely. Technologically, even financially, it would be easy and leave us all much wealthier than we are now.
Do I believe it will actually happen? Not a chance. Short-sightedness of elected officials and those in the general population not already familiar with the technology will not let people believe it can be done. I hope I'm wrong, and I 'm going to work for this kind of result anyway, but I expect it will take quite a bit longer, and quite a bit more catastrophe.
Where I stopped reading was "investing in energy efficiency." I could use a 30 cu ft *Energy Star* fridge, or I could use a regular 10 cu ft one. I could make a LEED Platinum mansion and live like Al Gore, or I could be content with a 500sq ft apartment. It's not technology and investing that we need, it's learning how to stop being so wasteful.