Cities of the Future, the Coming End of the Car Age and Suburbia's Demise: James Kunstler Talks

In Baltimore at least, suburbs will do just fine. Suburban living, with its better behaved citizenry, nicer communities, and superior schools will last past $4 and I'll bet even $5-8 gallon gas.

Not to mention that Baltimore, and a lot of other cities, are just sterile areas filled with row after row of cookie cutter style homes.

Like our existing suburban sprawl or not, it exists, and millions of homeowners are NOT going to abandon their investments and their way of life.

Electric plug-in's, plug-in hybrids, and even hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are coming. Couple all of that with increases in renewable energy (wind, and much, much more solar), and I suspect that automobiles are here to stay.

Existing vehicles are already being supplanted with more efficient cars and trucks. And as those vehicles grow older and are replaced they'll be replaced in turn with even more efficient vehicles, including rechargable "smart" cars, electric bikes, and so on.

And far from "exhausting and bankrupting our society", those changes will generate massive amounts of income and profits. All of those solar plants and wind farms and new and exciting vehicle technologies have to be developed, manufactured, installed, and maintained.

To suggest that we tuck our tails between our legs and retreat back into cities is to suggest that we forgo all of that development and opportunity.

Like our existing suburban sprawl or not, it exists, and millions of homeowners are NOT going to abandon their investments and their way of life.

Electric plug-in's, plug-in hybrids, and even hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are coming. Couple all of that with increases in renewable energy (wind, and much, much more solar), and I suspect that automobiles are here to stay.

Existing vehicles are already being supplanted with more efficient cars and trucks. And as those vehicles grow older and are replaced they'll be replaced in turn with even more efficient vehicles, including rechargable "smart" cars, electric bikes, and so on.

And far from "exhausting and bankrupting our society", those changes will generate massive amounts of income and profits. All of those solar plants and wind farms and new and exciting vehicle technologies have to be developed, manufactured, installed, and maintained.

To suggest that we tuck our tails between our legs and retreat back into cities is to suggest that we forgo all of that development and opportunity.

Hi,

Very good post i like it.

He's not realizing that work has moved to the suburbs as well. I just moved to the suburb myself and can now walk to work. There were no jobs anywhere comparable to where I'm at now within the city so I was commuting 20 miles each way from the city to the suburb to work.

Kunstler has found a number of truths about towns, society and energy. But he has managed to inflate these very real issues into an armageddon of an outcome, and his success story reads like Swiss Family Robinson, but with more hugs.

The reality is somewhere between disaster and polyanna, and the outcome is not likely to be very much like Kunstler's utopian fantasy. Yes, oil will run down before it runs out, and it will become quite expensive as it does so, unless supplanted by other fuels and energy sources, and/or by other transport options.

Yes, towns and cities are likely to repopulate and develop more localized focus. Yes many suburbs and unsustainable locales will face declines and great hardship. And yes, we will have more community.

We have been seeing some of these trends for a decade, as population concentrates on the coasts and around cities.

But although we may have more decentralized agriculture developing near cities, we won't go back to an agrarian society where everything is handmade in small amounts, mainly for the locals. What we will do is become much more efficient and judicious about how we use our time and resources, so that we maximize value and minimize fuel and material inputs.

Kunstler's a smart fellow. He really should challenge himself more and try to stretch a little.

@ I am so wise

"In Baltimore at least, suburbs will do just fine. Suburban living, with its better behaved citizenry, nicer communities, and superior schools will last past $4 and I'll bet even $5-8 gallon gas"

Sure most suburbs will survive $8 gas. But how about $12? $20? $35? What? You don't believe gas could ever cost $35/gallon? Tell that to all of the gas stations with pumps that won't pump more than $100 worth of gas. Or that can't charge more than $3.99 per gallon because their pumps won't go that high. I remember when my father got his first Suburban, and complained about it costing him $35 to fill up both tanks inside. Now it cost me nearly $50 to fill up my Malibu.

Check out the gas prices over time. They have been in exponential growth for some time now with the interest rate of about 15-20% growth. That means we will reach your threshold of $8/gallon in less than 4 years. In 6 years we'll see my price of $12. Do you think we can redesign our entire society in 6 years?

It's taken decades to build the Super-Suburbs we have now, but will take less than 5 years to desert them. Or turn them into slums.

This passed Friday in Southern Ontario there was a news highlight on the food crisis and how it relates to the suburbs.
In the 1980's Toronto residents received 80% of their fruits and vegetables from regional sources, now that has been reduced to only 20%. Currently our food is sourced from other countries including the US and other South American Countries.
But what happened to all that land that was once farm country? It is now our great suburbs surrounding Toronto, which include Mississauga, Oakville, Pickering, Whitby, etc..
The suburbs may have a chance to survive, perhaps as a suburban ghetto, but the ability to revitalize the land as farmland has passed.

Being an American ex-pat living in the UK, I think that more Americans need to look to Europe for examples about how to live in a completely different manner to they are used to and for examples of how cities should be built. The worst cities that I have seen in the UK are those that were built after the invention of the car (for a perfect example, see Milton Keynes), while some of the greatest have limited vehicular access. When I move back to the USA, I am going to try to live someplace where I can cycle to most of my daily needs (work, food, and social - aka a good pub/bar and some decent shops).

My mom, after traveling to the UK and seeing how I live now, has started to understand the different way that I live here - and how much better it is in so many ways!

JK is taking the long view. Probably a 20 to 40 year horizon. Most of us are accustomed to thinking no more than 1 to 4 years ahead, adapting to linear change.

There will be surprises along the way. But even if he is only 20% right in his vision, it will be a comparatively radical transformation, sometimes more like bumping down and icy stairwell than a graceful descent.

If all the geopolitics line up badly for oil importing nations, it could be quite disruptive and sudden.

Kunstler is right: suburbia is done for. I realize that's hard to believe for the suburbanites who've read this piece, and for those who've responded, but it's reality: the single greatest misuse of resources in human history has finally--and rightly--taken a bullet to the head.

Suburbanites won't give up their homes? They'll be forced to, simply by the realities of the day: hyperexpensive gasoline alone will do it. And that is most assuredly on the way, possibly in a year, certainly in two. Denial ... it ain't just a river in Egypt.

Too, the suburban philosophy of life is endangered: that of shallowism, consumption, status-seeking, gluttony, and sloth. This is a very good thing, and I for one am looking forward to it.

People don't want to face the fact that the days of their greed and gluttony are numbered. Or, if not numbered, then closely circumscribed by a low energy future. Such individuals are insane. Unfortunately, they also make up more than 90 percent of the populace.

Oh come on. Suburbs can't die because there's nowhere else to move. Cities are already full and can't support a sudden increase from all the ex-suburbanites. People aren't stupid and helpless. They will find a way to make their surroundings work rather than just give up. Suburbs will become mini cities!

I am so wise said:

"Suburban living, with its better behaved citizenry, nicer communities, and superior schools"

Hahahahahaha.

Better behaved citizenry. That's rich.

How about "proliferation of bored teenagers". When I go to the suburbs, I see more 17 year old boys driving around in cars their daddy bought them, who are dedicating all their time to being more badass than the next guy. If I take a bus from the city to the farthest burbs, I notice a huge difference in attitude the farther out I go. There's more kids with meaner attitudes and more recreational phamaceuticals out there than there are downtown.

People have seen the suburbs as this kind of utopia where it's "a quiet place to raise kids", and so lots of kids live there. And then they make trouble because they have nothing else to do.

I am so wise said:

"Suburban living, with its better behaved citizenry, nicer communities, and superior schools"

Hahahahahaha.

Better behaved citizenry. That's rich.

How about "proliferation of bored teenagers". When I go to the suburbs, I see more 17 year old boys driving around in cars their daddy bought them, who are dedicating all their time to being more badass than the next guy. If I take a bus from the city to the farthest burbs, I notice a huge difference in attitude the farther out I go. There's more kids with meaner attitudes and more recreational phamaceuticals out there than there are downtown.

People have seen the suburbs as this kind of utopia where it's "a quiet place to raise kids", and so lots of kids live there. And then they make trouble because they have nothing else to do.

@Shawn

"Too, the suburban philosophy of life is endangered: that of shallowism, consumption, status-seeking, gluttony, and sloth. This is a very good thing, and I for one am looking forward to it."

I agree that suburbia is done for, and agree that we'll have ex-burb ghost towns within 5 years. But Shallowism, consumption, status-seeking, gluttony, and sloth are not limited to the suburbs. Those are deep human traits that will take generations to remove from the gene pool, if ever.

"Sure most suburbs will survive $8 gas. But how about $12? $20? $35? ... It's taken decades to build the Super-Suburbs we have now, but will take less than 5 years to desert them."

And the first plug-in hybrids are due in 2010, just two years out. With more following after that.

Further, suburban homeowners are among the more affluent in our society. If anyone has the funds to replace vehicles and adapt to changing circumstances, it's them.

Besides, gas at $20 or $35 will have just as much impact on cities. Fleets of existing taxicabs and buses will have to be scrapped and replaced. Legions of trucks, needed to get food and supplies into cities will have to be replaced as well.

And suburbs, should it come to that, at least have space for individual gardens and for growing plants and vegatables. Unlike the denizens of the cities who'll need to huddle together, awaiting the next delivery truck.

I think you need to look at the impact of your assumptions on BOTH sides of the fence...

Look, I am sure you've run into bad suburbanites. I don't deny they exist. But, at least in the Baltimore metro area, the suburbs produce vastly less crime, the schools produce superior students, and have far more trees than the city.

Anyway, many of the suburbs you bash have survived for decades, even a few centuries, so I doubt they'll die any time soon.

Kunstler is the best, he's way ahead of his time.
Ignore this man at your peril.
I don't think that ALL suburbia is going to die but SOME is sure to.
Kunstler makes a statement something to this effect, MacMansions in the farthest flung asteroid belt of suburbia will have multiple families living in them with crops growing in the front yard and livestock corralled in the back yard.

Great post--I think we'll continue to see points like this being made as the gas crisis goes on and walkable/bike-able cities with good public transportation start looking more and more appealing.

For updates on this and other critical issues, check out our Eco-Compass Blog: blog.islandpress.org, featuring blogs by such experts as Chris Leinberger, author of The Option of Urbanism: Investing in a New American Dream and green development expert/walkable urbanism proponent.

This article may or may not be an accurate prediction of the fate of suburban America. If it is indicative of suburbia's future it paints a dire picture for the forgotten people certain to be displaced while the rich relocate again to the cities.

The massive displacement that will occur within underpriviledged communities will be horrendous, far more so than the affects felt today in the urban ghettos of America's great cities.

Gone will be public transportation and access to many resources. More than ever the poor will be isolated from the eyes of the "haves" and turning a blind eye to the human element will become more comfortable than ever before.

Access to any work at all will become a great struggle. Schools will be overcrowded as 3500sf homes become 3 or 4 flats.

The long term impact on the environment will quickly pale in light of the immediate human need that will be created through displacement.

Our care for the environment is rooted in a care for ourselves, our futures and the betterment of life.