Sea Level Rises and Ocean Temperatures: 50 Percent Higher than Previously Expected
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 06.19.08
Image from dsearls
It's worse than we thought. In a new study published in the latest issue of Nature, a group of international researchers has determined that sea level rise and ocean temperature trends for 1961 - 2003 are 50 percent larger than previously estimated by the IPCC -- though also 40 percent smaller for 1993 - 2003. Sea levels rose by about 1.5 mm per year during the 42 year span, adding up to a 6.3 cm (or 2.5 in) overall gain.
So the ocean isn't cooling?
These findings rebuke the claims made by some global warming skeptics who have pointed to transitory evidence suggesting oceans might actually be cooling. As Andy Revkin astutely put it in his blog: "The formula holds: more CO2 = warming world = less ice + higher seas + lots of changing climate patterns."
Image from dsearls
"Positive bias as a result of instrumental errors"
The scientists blamed the discrepancies on a "positive bias as a result of instrumental errors" in a measuring device, the bathythermograph, used by submarines and other vessels. In the past, researchers have used it to find particular thermoclines, the depth at which cold and warm water ocean layers meet; the problem was that they had been comparing the readings taken year after year. As Revkin explains, the bathythermograph is only able to take single snapshots of water temperature and thus wasn't the appropriate device to use for these measurements.
After reviewing the millions of readings taken over the last 4 decades and correcting for the systematic biases, the scientists found previous estimates had significantly lowballed the extent of ocean thermal expansion and sea level rises. The study also helped reinforce scientists' confidence in the ability of climate models to deliver results that matched past observations, Peter Gleckler, a climate scientist with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory explained.
Biopact has more background on the study and some nice figures that show the steady rise in sea levels over the past 4 decades.
Via ::Dot Earth: Seas Rising and Warming Faster Than Realized (blog), ::Biopact: Ocean temperatures and sea level increases 50 percent higher than previously estimated (blog)
More about Sea Level Rises
::See For Yourself: Interactive Sea Level Rise Explorer
::Sea Level Rise this Century Higher than Previously Thought
::Rising Seas, Falling Villas
Warming Oceans
::Indian Ocean Shows Signs of Global Warming
::Antarctic Icebergs Creating New Ecosystems
To dispute the quote "more CO2 = warming world = less ice + higher seas + lots of changing climate patterns."
Pre-industrial amount of CO2: 0.027%
Current amount of CO2: 0.038%
CO2 is such a very small part of our atmosphere. How can it really affect the warming of the earth that much? Water vapor is a much more potent greenhouse gas and there is a lot more of it. I think we are misinforming people by saying CO2 is the culprit for the warming trend we are seeing. Most skeptics don't dispute the fact that the Earth is warming or that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. They only dispute the role that CO2 is playing in the current warming trend that we are seeing.
CO2 is such a very small part of our atmosphere. How can it really affect the warming of the earth that much?
Chad, that's simply not a tenable scientific argument - small changes to specific variables have massive effects in all sorts of physical and chemical situations.
"How can it really affect the warming of the earth that much?".
Well, CO2 counts for between 9% and 30% of the overall warming effect. The percentage depends on where on the planet you are, and what the other gases, etc in the air are.
Water Vapor, when it gets too humid will rain/snow/precipitate out of the atmosphere. CO2 won't. However, as it is getting warmer globally, actually, more water vapor can be held in the air, thereby *further* increasing the greenhouse effect.
So while the additional water vapor is causing increasing warming, that additional water vapor comes from the excess CO2. Additional water vapor is an *effect* of the CO2 increase and yes, they both contribute to the overal warming.
Chad, you really need to read this:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=220
I like the sentence: "But you will never find a peer-reviewed rebuttal of such a bizarre line of reasoning as we are dealing with here - basically because such a line of reasoning is highly unlikely to make it past peer-review itself."
Chad,
It's like this:
Testosterone is a very small part of your blood volume, how can it really affect the functioning of your body that much?
Other hormones are far more potent, etc....
/analogy
-Jon