Future Food Production Could Be Severely Constrained by a Lack of Phosphorus
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 06.25.08
We've all heard of "peak oil" before. But "peak phosphorus"? Buffeted by soaring global demand and rising commodity prices, scientists are sounding the alarm that we may begin to run out of the precious element, which lacks a synthetic alternative and is essential to modern agriculture, in 30 years, reports The Times' Leo Lewis.
Phosphorus levels worldwide at record lows
Phosphorus is being consumed, mined and wasted in quantities unheard of just a few years ago, say researchers from around the world. In countries like Brazil, where inefficient farming processes and heavy biofuel use have depleted phosphorus to record low levels, the problem has already become a crisis. The government is now discussing plans to nationalize remaining privately-held mines. India's factories are beginning to sputter as they run out of the precious element.
“Quite simply, without phosphorus we cannot produce food. At current rates, reserves will be depleted in the next 50 to 100 years," said Dana Cordell of Sydney's University of Technology. She questioned the narrow focus on water, warning that a concentrated global phosphorus supply made it a "much, much deeper concern."
Phosphorus: the next, next oil?
The price of phosphate rock has soared by a whopping 700 percent -- to more than $367 a ton -- in the past 14 months alone. Morocco currently holds 32 percent of the world's remaining proven reserves; South Africa, Jordan, Syria, Russia and Western Sahara also hold significant stakes. The concentration of supply could create a new phosphorus cartel rivalling OPEC in its size and influence.
Reconsidering "renewable" biofuel production - and other potential solutions
The larger concern is that resource-intensive biofuel production could speed up the crisis -- and make it much worse. The only solution, say experts, is to better manage existing reserves by reforming inefficient production methods, slow biofuel production and create an international agency tasked with the monitoring and recycling of the vital element.
Or, as Warren explored last year, extracting phosphorus from our urine, as the Swedes are doing right now. It may not sound very appealing, but it may be our only hope.
Via ::Times Online: Scientists warn of lack of vital phosphorus as biofuels raise demand (news website)
More about phosphorus
::P is for Phosphorus (As Well As Human Urine)
::Washington State Bans Phosphorus in Dishwasher Detergent
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"Quite simply, without phosphorus we cannot produce food."
Quite simply, that's rubbish. Healthy soil and compost has all the phosphorous plants need- if you need to add mined phosphorous, you're doing something wrong. We need to stop believing that farms are analogous to factories. Breaking agriculture down to a series of chemical inputs is a not going to be a viable way to grow food long term.
Given how little of the phosphorus we use actually makes it to our digestive tracts, I'm not too upbeat on the promise of phosphorus from water treatment plants 'saving' us.
We'll need to 1) stop runoff 2) switch to less fertilizer intensive practices (like organic), 3) recycle what we can
4) stop using it to clean our dishes. 5) Stop putting it into our sodas (rotting our teeth and aggravating arthritis in the process)
And then we'll still slowly run out, but there are low concentrations of phosphorous already in the sand in our fields, are there not? You could probably source the rest from green fertilizers (alfalfa) for the foreseeable future.
There go the fireworks ...
I guess if you live where there isn't any water, dirt, sunlight or wind, and you buy everything you consume, things are going to get pretty bad.
Here is the trick: everything that doesn't evaporate is, in principle, recyclable.
With enough (clean) energy, and the right research, we can reduce non-recyclable waste to 0. Yes, 0. Freshwater can be had through desalination. Runoff can instead be reprocessed, elements extracted and used. Phosphorous is stable physically. Matter, elements, are not going anywhere. They are all somewhere. We just need to eliminate this whole throw away mentality. To be sustainable, everything must become recyclable.
Perhaps this is a good time to start thinking about vertical farming, like the operations at Vertigro, this use significantly less water and fertilizer, no herbicides or pesticides!
How to dramatically cut your PO4 usage rapidly.
Step one: Eat less meat...especially beef.
Step two: Cut out crappy corn-based snacks and other nutritionally-worthless processed foods
Step three: Insist on buying only phosphate-free detergents.
Keep in mind that even if 'peak PO4' is an exaggeration, the ever-expanding coastal dead zones propagated by phosphates is not.
Let's not forget that people were farming long before chemical phosphorous was around.
True the yields may not have been as high, but what about more people growing their own food? Will this have an impact, of course it will we're too dependant on it at the moment for it not too. But it won't be the end of farming. And it's time to get re-acquainted with manure, with all the cattle we have there's lots around.
Not to mention the phosphorous run off is killing our natural estuaries and lakes. I live in Manitoba Canada and we have the world's 14th largest lake an hour away. Problem is it's succumbing to algae growth that is chocking out natural plant and aquatic life. And guess what's causing the problem? An over saturation of phosphorous run off into the rivers feeding the lake.
Maybe this is a good thing.