Ice-Free Arctic by... This Summer?!
by greenz.jp, Tokyo, Japan on 06.28.08
First they said 2050, then 2013. And now, the latest forecasts suggest that there is a 50/50 chance we may see an ice-free Arctic Circle by the end of this summer, MSNBC reported today.
While a complete melt of all arctic ice will not lead to direct increases in sea level, unlike Greenland and the Antarctic, the flow-on effects could be dramatic.
With the white, reflective ice gone, and in its place dark absorbent sea surface, there will be a massive decrease in albedo (high albedo means more reflective). This means that more of the sun's radiation will be absorbed, and the Arctic Circle, which has already seen some of the highest temperature increases on the planet, will begin to heat up even faster.
Then there are immediate concerns for temperatures throughout the northern hemisphere. According to one of the scientists in the report, the north pole acts like a giant air-conditioner, cooling the northern half of the globe and maintaining air and water flows across the planet. Without this effect, it is impossible to know for sure what kind of dramatic changes might occur.
But, there may be a silver-ish lining to these storm clouds.
When the world hears that the North Pole has "melted away", it may just shock the planet into serious action.
Let's hope the world listens to the last gasps of our dying northern ice cap and works to stop global warming before Greenland and Antarctica follow suit.
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"When the world hears that the North Pole has "melted away", it may just shock the planet into serious action."
Something tells me it is just not going to happen. We will not wake up and say we have to do something.
Until some acid rain come down on our heads or something so direct that can not be ignored, we, they are not going to notice or pay attention....
...unfortunately it will be too late then.
I don't want to be a pessimist but that is what I feel is going to happen.
Vadim's pessimism is probably justified...on the lighter side, will there be polar cruises offered soom? Spitzbergen and Murmansk tourist destinations? DB
I agree with Vadim. The more likely (and ironic) outcome of a substantially ice free pole will be increased oil exploration in the newly accessible water.
There is no doubt in my mind that our current trajectory is leading us to a major catastrophic event. Although I can't quite find the words to aptly describe this phenomena; human beings when asked to 'do the right thing', won't, unless it affects them directly. We need to feel the pain ourselves before we will react appropriately.
I only hope that science holds the answer.
There is no doubt in my mind that our current trajectory is leading us to a major catastrophic event. Although I can't quite find the words to aptly describe this phenomena; human beings when asked to 'do the right thing', won't, unless it affects them directly. We need to feel the pain ourselves before we will react appropriately.
I only hope that science holds the answer.
I had heard we lost 50 % of surface cover
Now to find we lost 70% of ice mass ...
This is a disaster full blown. We don't need to wait till next year for the rest to melt till we declare there is a problem.
Just how bad does it need to get before people are willing to start changing?
How much of our world needs destroyed before people are willing to admit this is a problem?
I look at my children, and realize we are destroying the world they grow up in.
We should be ashamed of our choices, and change. Our children deserve better. So did the polar bears.
I had heard we lost 50 % of surface cover
Now to find we lost 70% of ice mass ...
This is a disaster full blown. We don't need to wait till next year for the rest to melt till we declare there is a problem.
Just how bad does it need to get before people are willing to start changing?
How much of our world needs destroyed before people are willing to admit this is a problem?
I look at my children, and realize we are destroying the world they grow up in.
We should be ashamed of our choices, and change. Our children deserve better. So did the polar bears.
My theory on melting arctic ice is an environmental conspiracy by a nefarious government & their corporate puppet masters!
What if the melting arctic is being caused intentionally by not only CO2 in the atmosphere but also by an artificial warming underneath the ocean by some form of nuclear radiation only detectable by a secretive government (call it Area 52)?
A deceitful & heinous act perpetrated to not only open the arctic to offshore drilling but also shipping lanes in the Northwest passage for "economic benefit"!!
A cynical theory perhaps, but who can really know what happens deep undersea in a world full of nuclear waste & a race to the bottom mentality of not only the oceans but the bottom line on the balance sheet!!
While this happens the politicians and business leaders sit on their hands. It makes me so angry that certain people will still not just ignore Global Warming but will actively campaign to stop the great work to highlight it, and work against it.
What will it take before governments take serious action? Do we all have to be flooded out of our homes? Does all life (that isn't human) need to be extinct before serious action is taken.
I lament humanity when I read about what we are doing to the earth, only will we be truly evolved when we can live in harmony with our home.
I hope the comments in the article are correct - that the world will wake up if the arctic melts soon. But I tend to agree with the previous comments. I have two brothers and a brother-in-law that laugh at global warming. Until it can proven without a doubt, such that even the skeptics would be ridiculed for doubting it, then I doubt the significant (not drastic) steps that need to be taken will be taken.
Not very good reporting... either by MSNBC, or you.
NO ONE (either in this video or anywhere else) is suggesting there's anything near a '50/50 chance we may see an ice-free Arctic Circle' this year... originally it was suggested it could happen as early as 2050, and that has been revised to 2013 - which is certainly serious enough! - but not THIS year!
What they DID say, was that the NORTH POLE (a tiny, tiny fraction of 'the Arctic Circle') has basically a 50/50 chance of being ice-free this year... but it's happened before, when wind pushes multi-year ice off the Pole itself, and it will happen again. It's really not all that unusual.
What IS more significant, is last year's shattering of the minimum Arctic sea ice and, moreover, the estimate that there is a 59% chance of it being a new record this year. With that in mind, an 'ice-free North Pole' may be one more symptom of the loss of ice in general, in the Arctic Circle, but by itself it's not all that significant.
As for MSNBC, to extrapolate all the dire warnings from the '50/50 chance of an ice-free North Pole' is really missing the point.
JP Rourke -
You are correct that there will probably not be a completely ice-free arctic for a long time to come.
What we should have said was the Arctic may be free of perennial ice (year-round ice) by the end of 2008.
Interested parties should check out http://www.enn.com/climate/article/23618 for more details on perennial sea-ice.
Sorry for the slip and thanks for pointing it out.
Just checked sat imagery. It's still there. In fact I compared it to imagery from this time last year and there is more ice. We need another line to scare the white people into joining our socialist dream.