Graphic Of The Day: The "Not Going To Happen" Scenario
by John Laumer, Philadelphia on 06.27.08
The US Energy Information Administration has just presented this graphic as part of "International Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030," available for download here as a pdf file. The dominant trend shown, obviously, is that China rockets out of control with coal consumption. That's the "business as usual" scenario, with China making cheap goods for the OECD nations and trashing the climate on their (our) behalf.
Other scenarios are equally plausible, involving certain overlooked freed-back loops and consumption drivers. For example:
* Escalating consumption of oil by China drives up the price of oil on world markets, slowing the US economy to an extent that OECD nation (US especially) consumers buy far fewer Chinese exports.
* Reduced OECD nation demand for made-in-China products slows the Chinese economy, which leads to reduced construction of coal-fired electrical generators there. And so on.
* The US actually takes climate action seriously.
Under the "Not Going To Happen" scenario, a predetermined outcome would certainly be reduced carbon emissions. People would be getting by with far less consumption. Reclamation and refurbishment of products would become major economic activities.
It's not all bad news for climate unless you subscribe to the one-and-only "official future."
Thirsty for more? Check out these related articles:
- US Chamber Of Commerce On The Inside Energy Policy Track
- Bush Administration Takes Another Last Minute Poke at the Environment: Approves Easier Coal Mine Waste Dumping in Streams
- Coal's Darkest Hour Comes Just Before EPAs New Dawn
- Quote of the Day: Don Blankenship on the Thin Edge of the Wedge
Wouldn't it be nice if we lived in a world where all the presidential candidates (read: ANY) took our environmental problems seriously?
Ah, we can dream though, we can dream.
Actually, it's you the AMERICANS who are making China like this. All of your polluting factories are in China because of cheap labour and no environmental laws. Also, all of your famous car companies (e.g. Ford) are moving to China to sell their products. You should restrain them!
How about, the price of oil makes shipping crap from China so expensive that it loses its price advantage? This will drastically slow down the Chinese economy. From Wikipedia:
"The cost of shipping a standard 40-foot container from East Asia to the US eastern seaboard has already tripled since 2000 and will double again as oil prices head towards $200 per barrel. At 2008 oil prices, every 10% increase in trip distance translates into a 4.5% increase in transport costs."
No more $25 DVD players! I think 'buy local' will soon be the obvious choice.
Samuel you should tell the Chinese government how you feel about this coal situation as it it the government who is allowing these "American" companies to do business in China. It's this thing called a global economy, you may have heard about it? The fact of the matter is that every country in this world needs to work together to free the world of it's dependence on fossil fuels for energy. Everyone and every country should take it's own part in this responsibility.
@Samuel
I honestly don't see China being this stupid. Look at the crap they're getting for their environment just from hosting the Olympics. I don't think restrain is the right word. I would like to see all goods imported into this country held up to the same standards as good made here. I don't think I could see China importing as much either if we refused entry of their product because it doesn't meet US standards. But what would be put in our happy meals?
Agreed big time with the author. That's always been my problem with these kinds of speculation. That nothing will change. I had a discussion one time with a friend about solar, who's entire argument was predicated on how inefficient solar panels are, and the weak storage of batteries. He just couldn't understand that these things are not static there are breakthroughs every day.
@Samuel
The American people are causing this? Trust me bud, we would much rather those companies stay in the U.S. so we would have more jobs. As for buying items made in China, it's kinda hard not to since almost all major products are made there.
Are we the only country that has products made there? I'd think as cheap as their labor is, a lot of other countries would be sending their stuff there to be made too.
Samuel, even European companies do the same thing. When you see many companies products that say "Made in Italy" or anywhere else, often than just means the parts are built in china and shipped to Europe where workers (often chinese or african immigrants, legal or otherwise) do the final assembly. Americans are by far the most polluting people on the planet (I am from the US, and I include myself in that for the first 20 years of my life), and we are responsible for much of the pollution in china, but we are not the only ones. China will control its pollution problems when they become economically impossible to ignore. And that day will come well before 2030.
Trust me Samuel, most American don't want their jobs going overseas or even to immigrants, they are rather picky about that type of thing here. As for factories, as said above, it's not my choice that they moved there, it's the company and China allowing them in (probably with some hefty bribes).
The only thing that could restrain capitalists in the US is a bullet in the head, and they kinda frown on that type of thing over here :p Anotherwords, we don't have laws that say a company can't leave the country. Global economy and freedom and all that.
Wish they wouldn't, but business men go where the labor is cheap and the laws are non-existent.
No country, even China, would be producing megatons of pollution to manufacture inventory for dollar stores and Wal-mart if people weren't buying this stuff. Sustainability for our planet means stop buying 'stuff' and if you absolutely must have something (and really, do you need that gadget?), ensure it will last.
Or buy secondhand :)
the buying of 'stuff' is a self-medication for a deficient lifestyle.