Five Reasons Why Environmentalists Aren't Blaming Global Warming For Recent Weather
by Christine Lepisto, Berlin 
on 06.15.08
In the aftermath of 500-year floods in America's heartland, the disappearance of tourist-beloved Lake Delton (WI) and a heat wave that delivered temperatures a full four degrees above previous records in New York state, the question has started circulating among bloggists: where are the environmentalists? Why is the media not seizing this opportunity to drive home the point that these severe weather events are exactly as predicted by Global Warming models? We can't know for sure what the reasoning is at the groups being called-out by Open Left or Grist, but we can think of 5 possible reasons they aren't all pointing to these recent weather events as proof of Global Warming.
(1) I told you so?
One obvious explanation springs to mind: it's no fun saying "I told you so." But seriously, there are better reasons.
(2) Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
The people who really understand Global Warming know that it is impossible to draw conclusions from any single weather event. The science of global warming can be confusing. But most people can see that screaming "global warming" after a single weather event would be akin to the story of the two statisticians who went deer hunting. One statistician shot 50 yards wide to the right and the other missed by 50 yards to the left of the deer. Returning from the hunt, they declared "We got one!"
(3) Miss Science Manners
Proper manners in science dictate that hypotheses should be subject to peer review and continual objectivity in the collection of further data and proofs. Especially in a field as complex as climate change, where models process huge data sets and scientists are desperately struggling to learn more fast, few scientists wish to contend that they have a lock on prophesizing the future of specific weather patterns. Science repeatedly gets burned by early reports in the mass media about preliminary results that later prove to be unfounded. Adversaries love to throw those "false claims" in the face of new reports which suggest results they prefer not to believe. You need only read some of the comments to the Grist article as evidence.
(4) Psychological Twist
An added twist: most scientists are aware of the psycho-social phenomenon that people will remember or give weight to anecdotal evidence that supports their beliefs while (unintentionally, even subconsciously) ignoring evidence contrary to their cause. Scientists fight this inherent lack of objectivity constantly, striving after the Truth, not just proof of their side of the story.
(5) You Already Know
But the best reason may be: It doesn't need to be said anymore. You already know that climate change needs to be taken seriously. Even significant skeptics have accepted the reality of climate change, with a small percentage of holdouts fighting a losing battle. Instead, the modern environmentalist prefers to think positive. This means
- taking away the lessons learned from floods as well as ways to live green without giving up your personal style.
- keeping you informed on valid presentations of the data from reliable sources like IPCC Chairman Pachauri, public information campaigns such as Al Gore's sequel to An Inconvenient Truth and arguments that can be used in debunking global warming skeptics;
- pointing out the positive side of events: probably every SUV that sank in the floods will be replaced by a more environmentally friendly car!
This piece was inspired by the questions being asked by:
Open Left: The Environmental Response: What Floods?
Grist: Still, Waters Run Deep
Follow @TreeHugger on Twitter & get our headlines with @TH_rss!
Thirsty for more? Check out these related articles:
- Got Guts? Stand Up to Summer Heat Without Air Conditioning
- Surf Green with Eco-Friendly Surf Gear
- 5 Ways Climate Change Will Affect Your Health, Plus How to Cope
- Focus Earth: June 13, 2009: Everglades Nevermore and Snake Invaders
- Preserving the Harvest: Strawberry Balsamic Jam
- How to Use a Solar Cooker: What Works and What Doesn't
The 33rd coldest winter on record in Wisconsin may be a part of it to. The tornadoes (that are caused by colder than normal temperatures) may also be part of it. The ∆(t) of -.77C for the last 16 months, as large as the entire global warming trend, may be part of it.
And this inconvenient coincidence is certainly part of it:
www.spaceweather.com
It's actually "Lake Delton"
==auth. note==
Apologies for the typo, it has been corrected.
This is a good list. Our best reason would be a combination of them all. As you say, we can't point to a single weather event and say, "Aha! It was caused by global warming." The facts just aren't there. You can certainly speculate...warmer water makes stronger hurricanes...but it's not scientifically sufficient. Instead, we rely on the science to make the case that global warming is real, and we stick to what we know based on empirical evidence and hard data.
And though we can't make a scientific connection from global warming to individual weather events, there is still that logical connection. And making that connection on one's will come about organically, which is to say people will discover it for themselves. So this is the best reason in our opinion. Because discovering the truth--those personal, aha moments--is much more powerful and lasting than being told the truth.
MaxGladwell.com
I would have claimed that it was because they were not completely foolish. But after checking the article, that's just not the case. Go back to any point in history that you like, and the recent weather events look positively hum-drum.
I would have though it was because that no matter what we do these events will happen, and the public knows it. The AGW alarmists are waiting for something scarier than some flooding that happens regularly to blast the public with for a right good round of green-washing.
Bravo Ms.L., for pointing out that how we communicate risk is as important as what we communicate.
I would argue that the reason our weather events look ho-hum is that for the first time we have the means to deal with them. In the old days if a big storm washed your home and crops away, you died. Or at least had a near fatal period of famine. Now you can be removed to a place of safety while you rebuild your home, hopefully using money from insurance. Food and water can be flown and driven in as needed in the meantime.
Notice the difference when environmental disasters strike less developed countries around the world, or even rapidly developing China. Their brutal winter storms in the south paralyzed the country for many days because there was insufficient infrastructure to deal with it.
How many disasters go unreported in the news these days?
100 years ago a tornado wouldn't be known about world wide.
200 years ago, how many tornadoes and hurricanes hit absolutely nothing and nobody noticed?
With advances in radar, more and more tornadoes are being tracked and studied, so do we have an accurate count of how many there actually were 50 or 100 years ago? doubtful.
6) It cuts both ways. If scientists or environmentalists were to start publicly ascribing these recent events to climate change and then we had a year or two of mild coolish weather, their credibility would be lost.
It would be hard to relate it to warming, when it has cooled. Look at the NOAA data:
The average temperature in May 2008 was 60.3 F. This was -0.7 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average, the 35th coolest May in 114 years.
"Five Reasons Why Environmentalists Shouldn't Be Blaming Global Warming For Recent Weather" might be a better title. Just because someone shouldn't do something doesn't mean he or she won't do it. The main reason for this, in my opinion, is that Reason #1 is just plain wrong. I know several self-proclaimed climate change "experts" that consider saying "I told you so" to be great fun. Unfortunately, it doesn't make them persuasive, just annoying. They forget the classic definition of a fanatic... someone who can't change his mind, and won't change the subject.
I live near Cedar Rapids and I've been helping out the area. The flooding is massive and just insane with the causes that it can and will have on all of the lives. I am just curious...I would like to start a business...That I could help with the benefit fulltime without sacrificing my home and bills.
Lake Delton is a huge loss. Awesome Vacation Spot. WOW!
TheDude said:
"The 33rd coldest winter on record in Wisconsin may be a part of it to."
Global warming can cause colder weather in winter (or summer) locally just as well. The fact is that with more energy in any given area of low pressure, if that low passes to the south of you, it's going to bring you more and colder air from the north. If it passes to the north, then it brings warmer and wetter weather. But the fact remains that they will be stronger, more energetic, and more disastrous regardless of what actual temperatures they bring *you*.
Sometimes, things in life don't have an explanation. They just happen.
Bad Weather is part of this 4 billion year old planet and more often than not it strikes without any good reason what so ever.
It would be nice if we could have something to blame for every disaster out there (like Global Warming!) and it would be even nicer to be able to do something about it, like reducing emissions.
Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. Even if Global Warming is true, and even if we could do something about it, bad weather will always be a part of life.
It's called chaos and applies specifically to weather patterns. It makes predictions of even two days ahead already extremely shaky, let alone global patterns.
Sometimes it just happens for no reason at all.
Sometimes, things in life don't have an explanation. They just happen.
Bad Weather is part of this 4 billion year old planet and more often than not it strikes without any good reason what so ever.
It would be nice if we could have something to blame for every disaster out there (like Global Warming!) and it would be even nicer to be able to do something about it, like reducing emissions.
Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. Even if Global Warming is true, and even if we could do something about it, bad weather will always be a part of life.
It's called chaos and applies specifically to weather patterns. It makes predictions of even two days ahead already extremely shaky, let alone global patterns.
Sometimes it just happens for no reason at all.
There have been so many bogus and knee jerk reactions that blame every conceivable event on global warming that perhaps those who are yelling the sky is falling realize they hurt their cause with such tripe and unsubstantiated claims.
If global warming is happening, it could much to the dismay of the extremists be due to non human reason like sunspots and natural climactic changes. Why for instance is the climate of Mars undergoing similar and measurable changes as the earth? Don't those Martians understand Carbon Footprints?
Global warming really translates to more energy in the atmosphere, which really translates to more extreme weather patterns. Just because its way colder sometimes does not negate anything. Things are just going to be more severe, not necessarily warmer.
Weather or not climate change is caused by us, changes in the sun, or a combination of both is up for debate. I dont think I will waste my time debating it though. There are numerous other reasons to change my ways that are easily proven. Pollution, Gas prices, Being less wasteful to name a few.
Do you really want to keep giving your hard earned money to foreign countries and oil executives?
Do you really want your kids to have asthma?, not knowing what breathing fresh air feels like?
You guys are running a teaser graphic for this story that says:
Most Popular: Why recent weather isn't due to global warming.
Um... It isn't? That's not the theme of the story. It's "Why experts crying 'GLOBAL WARMING!'" not that global warming isn't to blame.