Government Study Claims Twenty Percent Of US Power From Wind By 2030
by John Laumer, Philadelphia on 05.15.08
A study sponsored by the US Department of Energy, and overseen by a board of outside advisers from the wind power industry, projects that it is possible to expand the average national output of wind generated electricity from the present 1.0+%- to the 20%-level over the next 22 years: an order of magnitude more wind power in the USA, in two decades.
The study presumes that demand for electricity will continue to grow throughout the period of projection. Imagine what the percentage would be under a scenario of reduced demand growth!
Wind power is capable of becoming a major contributor to America’s electricity supply over the next three decades, according to a report by the U.S. Department of Energy. The groundbreaking report, 20% Wind Energy by 2030: Increasing Wind Energy’s Contribution to U.S. Electricity Supply, looks closely at one scenario for reaching 20% wind energy by 2030 and contrasts it to a scenario of no new U.S. wind power capacity.Project details are presented here, on a dedicated project website. The full report can be downloaded here.
Although the study is for a single scenario, it identifies what would be the potential roadblocks and constraints under any reasonable growth scenario, some of which can be overcome by investment, some by public policy, and some by attitude.
More than 300 gigawatts of wind power capacity would be needed to meet the DOE's 20 percent scenario, up from 11.6 gigawatts in mid-2007. Wind turbines currently generate a little more than 1 percent of the country's total capacity. One gigawatt is enough to power roughly 650,000 homes..To reach that level, the wind industry would have to quicken its pace of installations more than fivefold by 2018, to 16 gigawatts a year, up from 3 gigawatts a year today, and then sustain that pace through 2030.
It won't be easy. To reach that level would require improved turbine technology, significant changes in transmission systems to deliver power through the electrical grid, and larger expanded markets to buy the power, the report says
Helping to add credibility to the study results, is the fact that the board of advisers for the study apparently included no one with direct interest in the coal fired power industry.
Members of the following advisory group supplied strategic guidance:
Rashid Abdul Mitsubishi Power Systems
Stan Calvert U.S. Department of Energy
Edgar DeMeo* Renewable Energy Consulting Services, Inc.
Robert Gates Clipper Windpower
Robert Gramlich American Wind Energy Association
Thomas O. Gray American Wind Energy Association
Steven Lindenberg U.S. Department of Energy
James Lyons GE Global Research
Brian McNiff McNiff Light Industries
Bentham Paulos Energy Foundation
Bonnie Ram* Energetics Incorporated
Janet Sawin Worldwatch Institute
Brian Smith National Renewable Energy Laboratory
J. Charles Smith Utility Wind Integration Group
Randall Swisher American Wind Energy Association
Robert Thresher National Renewable Energy Laboratory
James Walker enXco
Comments: the US increased it's wind power an order of magnitude in the preceding two decades. A continuation of that level of growth would therefore seam reasonable. Caveat: if the NIMBY effect can be overcome.
Moreover, although one of the growth limiting factors is the need to construct transmission lines from areas where wind power potential is highest to where demand currently exists, that need is not uniform, and will be addressed in step with other resource and policy factors. For example, we can imagine a city such as Buffalo New York taking a regional economic development policy line that, hypothetically, would amount to: "we've got the housing stock, a bounty of clean water, massive amounts of clean hydroelectric power, and we've made adding wind power a top priority." The net effect being an impetus to move the jobs to Buffalo instead of the power to other areas.
Now scale this idea up to the state level (per the graphic depicting projected wind power additions by state) and think of it in context of a carbon cap and trade program making it more expensive to do business in highly coal dependent areas. Depending on how the interplay of cap and trade and wind power additions are synchronized and who provides the funding, the lobbying battles may be intense.
Incidentals: What's up with North Dakota? So windy there that it pops the buttons off of one's shirt if you face the wrong direction.
What happens in tornado alley...in the coastal zones where tropical storms are expected to be more frequent/intense? Are those really good places for wind power investment?
Via::Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal, DOE report: Wind power may provide 20% of power needs by 2030 Image credit:: USDOE Report
OOOH, we want a windmill!!! Have the perfect conditions for one, winds right off Lake Huron.
Super post!!!
JJ :D
I am all for wind generated power. I'm no expert here, but I'd think that wind farms are a lot less costly and less dangerous than building a Nuclear plant. Wind farms will need more room, but there would be NO pollution whatsoever generated from them. Now, if we can convince ourselves to consume less power, the percentage can climb even faster.
your headline for this item is misleading and inaccurate..
20% of electricity production is not 20% of us power.
regards
A goal of 20% electricity from wind is certainly reasonable, especially if the Production Tax Credit (PTC), which is set to expire at the end of this year, is renewed. Despite policy uncertainty, investors and financiers have increased their focus on renewables, devoting more and more resources to developing renewable energy projects.
If you're interested in learning more about wind energy development in the United States, you should attend the Renewable Energy Finance Forum-Wall Street (www.REFFWallStreet.com), held June 18-19 in New York City. One of the official event sessions will feature representatives from GE, NordBank, and JPMorgan in a discussion about the future of the wind industry, as well as the economic and policy factors fueling growth and development.
How ironic is it that the areas with the lowest average of wind power experience the nations highest wind speeds during hurricane season.
What we need is a wind generator capable of withstanding Category 5 hurricanes (wind speed greater than 155mph). It would certainly be within reason since the space shuttle, the fastest vehicle on Earth, travels 17,000+ mph.
Wind power is great in theory but currently not viable as a large portion of our electric generation. What they don't tell you is that for every MW of wind there is a MW of "other" generation (usually coal) running and doing nothing just in case the wind dies down. Power plants are not able to turn on and off or ramp up output fast enough to cover wind fluctuations, which is why this "spinning reserve" is necessary.
Until we find a storage method for wind it will never live up to it's potential. Whether it be large-scale batteries (not viable with current tech), wind to hydrogen fuel cell (possible), a PHEV "smart grid", etc we need something. Without storage wind is not really saving any emissions due to the backup plants.
Flywheel batteries would be my choice for storing wind energy from a hurricane.
It's a kinetic form of energy storage vs. a typical chemical battery. A flywheel battery is basically a cylindrical mass that rotates at high RPM's inside of a sealed vacuum container. It is coupled to a generator inside of the casing as well.
With no load on it, the flywheel spins freely and since it is in a vacuum, there's no friction to slow it down. It can take a charge faster than a typical chemical battery which would make it ideal to accept lightening as a source of energy as well.
I imagine a farm of flywheel batteries surrounding a hurricane wind generator. The flywheels would be able to be charged all during a storm and would be a great source of electricity if there were an auxiliary grid for them because it's typical that the grid is interrupted due to storm damage.
References:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html
http://www.beaconpower.com/products/EnergyStorageSystems/index.htm
Not to sound dickish, but I find the idea of generating electricity from hurricanes astronomical. This is not to say that we could not benefit from a hurricane's winds, but planning wind farms solely for hurricanes is simply unfeasible. Assuming that we could design a windmill that could sustain winds of 155 MPH+ (Which is no easy task, I might add), hurricanes do not hit the U.S. with enough frequency (5+ years in the most active regions) for this option to become viable. In addition, the damage to electrical infrastructure might render these wind farms useless.
17000 mph space shuttle doesn't do it near the earth's surface, but in the higher atmosphere. Also, it's trying to cut the wind, not capture it. We could build a wind generator that could handle hurricane winds but it would be so overbuilt it would be inefficient(or useless) in average winds.
Lightning and hurricanes are short term events and we are years away from harnessing them. Humans have used windmills for centuries because they make sense.
Wind power works. Anyone who says it isn't perfect is correct, but no power generation is perfect, and we still use them all.
I'm in the US, and we have SO MUCH land, and SO MUCH wind, and SO MUCH sunshine, we would be stupid not to use them all to produce power.
To think that today, the fact that a small country like Germany produces more power from wind than the United States, makes the US a laughingstock. We have the resources, we have the capability, but we lag behind.
The US has so much land, so much wind, so much sunshine, we COULD be exporting power to our neighbors, today, for a profit, if we had started 30 years ago like we should have. When oil was cheap, it made "economic" sense to use oil instead of developing our wind and solar, so we did not develop our wind and solar, and now we are paying the price.
A full scale effort to produce renewable power with wind and solar, begun now, similar to the effort to win WWII, would start paying dividends immediately, and forever. More jobs right away, eventually turn the trade deficit into a surplus by exporting electricity, reduce or eliminate oil imports, cleaner air. MORE POWER.
Nanosolar, in their California plant, is producing solar panels to sell at $1 per watt, incredibly inexpensive. At present, Nanosolar is selling their entire output, to Germany. Germany? Yes, Germany is leading in using inexhaustable energy sources. They have brains over there, and they see the writing on the wall. Energy is worth money, lot's of money.
Do you want your country to be an energy exporter, or an energy importer? Stupid question, you want to be an exporter, of course. The United States has a HUGE advantage, in land area, wind potential, and technology, but we lack the will, the desire, the determination, to take advantage of it.
It is time for the United States to stand up again, and produce for the benefit of Earth. It is time to stand up for what is RIGHT, and to hell with the monetary cost. Do what is RIGHT. Let us work together, not just for the United States, but for Earth.
2030 will be to LATE, We need to start NOW.
"...This is not to say that we could not benefit from a hurricane's winds, but planning wind farms solely for hurricanes is simply unfeasible."
-Matt
I'm not implying that a wind farm would be designed soley for hurricanes. With *today's* technology, we could design a wind farm that could harness wind that moves at speeds from 1mph to 200mph. Currently, MW wind generators cut out at 40mph or so. I just have to ask why stop harnessing that energy?
Additionally, a wind generator that could withstand hurricane speeds could also have some capacity to harness solar energy as well. Its typical to be very sunny after a storm.
"Lightning and hurricanes are short term events and we are years away from harnessing them."
-Griffin
You may feel that lightning and hurricanes are short-term events but this does not discount the fact that they possess a great volume of energy. And the value of such harnessed energy would offset the traditional polluting methods it would take to match it.
Additionally, Florida is home to the most lighting strikes in the world. So any product development towards a system that could harness lightning would have the potential for an unlimited supply of organic electricity.