Russia Joins Global League of Climate Obstructionists, Putting Future U.N. Treaty in Doubt
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 05. 9.08
Image courtesy of JackVersloot via flickr
When in Rome: Joining its fellow top polluters -- China, India and the U.S. -- Russia has signaled it would rebuff the imposition of tougher emission standards, casting doubt on the prospects for a future U.N.-mediated climate treaty, reports Reuters' Alister Doyle. Government officials said last week that the country wouldn't accept binding caps under a new deal to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, set to expire by the end of 2012.
This follows the debacle that was last year's Bali climate talks, in which the U.S. delegation was (rightly) criticized for its meek -- if not non-existent -- "leadership" role in pushing for ambitious new targets. It also neatly falls into line with President Bush's recent speech on climate change, which, as was noted here and many other sites, kicked the can down the road again.
The Russians argued that mandating cuts would harm the country's "emerging" middle class and impose an unnecessary burden on its energy companies. Some are claiming that its position could yet be open to negotiation -- assuming the incentives are there. As Nick Mabey, an environmental think tanker cited in the article, explains, its statement should be taken with a "grain of salt" as the country has "a lot of potential for energy savings."
Indeed, because its emissions -- estimated to lie around 2.13b tons in 2005 -- are still comfortably within Kyoto standards (roughly 28.7% below the 1990 baseline), Russia would like to keep the requirements loose so it can continue to expand at a fast clip over the next few years. A U.N. scenario to reduce emissions to 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 would crimp its ambitious growth plans, officials fear.
A post-Bush presidency will need to muster all its bargaining chips and influence to press for a climate treaty that imposes stringent standards while accommodating other emitters' economic development. Saving the next U.N. treaty will be a challenge, but one that all world leaders will have to commit to in order to improve on Kyoto's meek accomplishments.
Via ::Climate Change Blog: Russia Joins World's Top Polluters Obstructing International Carbon Cuts (blog)
See also: ::Global Warming is Good for Russia, ::China, Russia, & Cuba Seem To Agree With Competitive Enterprise Institute
Russia is joining the United States, China and India in their train of thought. Many in the environmental community are seeing this as a massive wrench in the gears of a follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol. While it is not good news it does not spell out the end, there are alternatives. The most obvious of those is to forge ahead not only without these countries but to ban them from the next protocol.
If we eliminate the main speed bumps the vehicle that is a carbon emissions treaty will travel more smoothly and come about with much more success. Albeit they will be missing a large portion of the emitters but the majority of the world will set an example of a clean economy and in essence a stronger economy that is built upon a stable setting of renewable resources.
Of course this will take incredible discipline and strength and require other countries like Australia, Germany, Japan and Canada too take the lead and set the example of the developed countries, something they have been more than reluctant to do in the recent past. They will have to be patient and understand that they are not equals with the United States, China, India and Russia in economic standards and no deal will put them there, so it is best for them to agree to terms with an economic plan that gives then sustainability for the future in their own right.
If a treaty as such is reached that will mean control of more than half of the carbon emissions around the planet. Getting this percentage reduced and eliminated will have a greater impact on the planet and future policy formation than a weak and broken treaty involving the four ignorant emitters ever would. . It has been a mistake to believe that the countries that created an oil dependent economy will be the ones to pull us out of it. It’s beyond time to stop expecting these countries to take the lead simply because they are the worst offenders and look for leadership in more appropriate areas, allow these countries to then enter as followers because there actions have exhausted any hope of them being anything different.
This is not a crisis, nor a cause for hysteria. The model is not the climate. Repeat: "the model is not the climate."
This is a problem for a lot of people but it is the truth. Pay more attention to what is actually happening. Not to what some vested interest claims will happen in the next hundred years, after you are long dead.
HInt: they don't know either.