Survey: How Will $10 per Gallon Gas Affect You?
by Lloyd Alter, Toronto on 04.25.08

We asked in a recent survey if you thought you would be driving in thirty years; now economist Jeff Rubin thinks gas prices could be $7 to $10 per gallon in just four years, and that this is going to cause massive changes in the way we live and work.

















WVO - about 85% of the fuel I use is nearly free!! $10 a gallon fuel...oh well, force everyone else to be more efficient and possibly trend to buying smaller vehicles. I say good!
It will effect everyone, not only because driving will become more expensive, but because everything you can think of will get more expensive.
We are almost paying $10 a gallon here in Europe already ($9.33 a gallon in The Netherlands atm).
Nozzie
I'd probably have to cut back to make sure we can afford food, but my spending for gasoline is really low already. 5 gallons lasts me about two weeks, and soon I'll be down to about 2 gallons a week as I start riding my scooter more.
$10/gallon?
"other": I'm screwed.
My daily commute would be okay but travelling to see family members would be difficult. I predict people won't want to spread out quite so much from their loved ones when travel gets prohibitively expensive.
WVO may be free now, but I would expect it to cost money once the restaurants know they can turn a profit from it
This is only a little more than many Europeans are paying today, and they manage to survive albeit in a society built around considerably less use of gas.
If the auto manufacturers havent introduced electric cars by then, I will be cycling a load more, and attempting to build my own electric car.
It's already almost $9 here so I don't think it'll affect me too much… but for those in North America, even if you are biking everywhere, surely it would affect you since stuff you buy gets transported via methods other than bicycle.
I already am moving to an urban environment and plan to live close enough that I can walk to work and to the store. As for a car, as a graduate this may, i'm debating whether its even worth it to buy one!
The thing that I think most people don't get is that the food you eat gets delivered to the grocery store in a truck (and unloaded from a plane just prior in most cases); both of these use gas as fuel.
Everyone will be much more drastically affected my food price increases due to gas price increases than filling up their autos.
I recently sold my 2007 Yaris and moved to New York City. I travel exclusively by foot and subway...so the only way this would affect me is through the pricing of everyday goods. Food is already way more expensive than I was expecting...but luckily some of the uber-healthy foods also seem to be foods nobody else wants!
It would destroy the way we live in the US. Even now when it's not even $4 a gallon yet we're having a large amount of people start to struggle in their daily lives. $10 would shoot the price of everything up over 3x what it is now. A $70k job would barely make ends meet. The dollar would have huge issues. Getting food would start to become a real problem.
Myself, I would make the hard, but doable, move to a country side house and start up a green community in which to live. It's a long term plan of mine anyway, but I would do it earlier if need be. I already have the knowledge to live self-sufficiently and only need to execute it.
WVO may be free now, but I would expect it to cost money once the restaurants know they can turn a profit from it.
More incentive to finish (or um start) my EV conversion.
$10/Gallon oil will impact the cost of plastic, food production and manufacturing. It's not as simple as saying, "Oh, I'll just cough up extra when I fill up the car and combine my shopping trips."
People are smart, and the future isn't all gloom and doom. I suspect we'll see a resurgence of local manufacturing in North America as it become increasingly less attractive to ship wooden spoons half way around the world. Electronic gadgets will become more expensive, and people will buy fewer of them - again, a good thing. Small cars will suddenly become trending in North America (my neighbour was shocked to pay $113 to fill her massive diesel truck yesterday). We'll start paying attention to *real* energy conservation and start clamoring for human scale neighbourhoods. McMansions will become costly white elephants, and so on.
We waste so much fuel in this country it isn't funny. $10 gasoline will do little to curb consumption, IMO.
Gas will not get that high here. We have enough oil in North America to be self-sufficient already. We would open up fields in Alaska and off-shore that are currently being protected. If oil simply stays as high as it is now, these fields will be opened and it will be economically feasible to get oil from the tar sands in Canada (which is bigger than all the oil in Saudi Arabia). Companies are ramping up to produce Ethanol from cellulose for $1.00 a gallon now. $7 a gallon oil will not happen here.
The big issue here is our refinery capacity. It takes 6 years to open a new refinery. Congress should have already done something to help in this area, but are being short-sighted, as usual. Therefore, the ethanol solution or something similar will have to be a stop-gap measure. If it gets bad enough, Congress will drop the tax on gas and will subsidize the price for a while. Otherwise, we would be looking at an economic disaster (short-term).
I ride by about 7 gas stations on my bike to work. They are all around $4.00 for regular. Shell is way higher and people will still buy gas there.
If gas hits $10.00 in four years I believe a huge amount of jobs will be created to start manufacturing goods here in the USA again. It'll be cheaper to make everything here. Shipping goods around the world will be worthless. Not sure if $10.00 is the magic number, but I couldn't imagine people where I work paying over $150-$300 on gas a week. Some commute by automobile as far as 60-80 miles one way and going to job sites all over California.
My commute price is pretty stable in terms of dollars, but with a spike I could see an increase too (I ride BART for about 1 hour to get close enough to bike). We will all see an increase even if you don't drive an automobile.
My commute isn't long enough for me to give up my (fuel-efficient) motorcycle and my car (for the winter months). But I'll probably start taking the bus to the mountains to go skiing instead of my car, and I probably won't drive 6 hours round-trip to race my bicycles anymore.
I'll definitely sell my Trans Am: 20mpg - 15 gal tank - $60 to fill up at $4/gal hi test. Or $150 at 10/gal. Even my Honda will get less use if I can bike around town, but work is just on the edge of "too far to bike" most times. And in the NE winters are cold so I'll need a car Nov - April.
Increasing gas prices are a good thing because it will force us to fix the problem. And that's happening. It may be a bit painful for awhile, but technology and common sense will win this battle. China and India will be hurt the most since their appetite for oil is increasing exponentially. Middle East princes see the writing on the wall.
Collectively we in the US can solve this problem and we will.
I think I'd be in the screwed area :D
I'm a grad student and tutor kids for my part time jobs during off school hours and it requires me to drive to their places. With classes ending at 6 and tutoring starting at 6:15 or 6:30 or so LA's public transportation system wouldn't work, and I certainly couldn't bike that fast. With prices as they are now and since I doubt I'll be tutoring kids over the summer I figure to ditch the car for commuting to school, the gym, and the grocery store and resort to a combo of my bike and the gold line to take care of that stuff.
I bike almost everywhere and live in a big city. What is sad is that the people most profoundly affected will be poor people. People who can afford it will move to cities and walkable communities. Those that can't, won't. They'll be stuck in the burbs with no infrastructure for biking and walking - all the places with no sidewalks and only 4 lane busy roads. And the tax base won't be there to get these things on board. I would like the federal government to take some stands on mandating the 'safe streets' stuff which would mean all new roads need to account for bikes and pedestrians. But of course- everything in the burbs is so far away. Whats the solution to that?
I bike almost everywhere and live in a big city. What is sad is that the people most profoundly affected will be poor people. People who can afford it will move to cities and walkable communities. Those that can't, won't. They'll be stuck in the burbs with no infrastructure for biking and walking - all the places with no sidewalks and only 4 lane busy roads. And the tax base won't be there to get these things on board. I would like the federal government to take some stands on mandating the 'safe streets' stuff which would mean all new roads need to account for bikes and pedestrians. But of course- everything in the burbs is so far away. Whats the solution to that?
I bike almost everywhere and live in a big city. What is sad is that the people most profoundly affected will be poor people. People who can afford it will move to cities and walkable communities. Those that can't, won't. They'll be stuck in the burbs with no infrastructure for biking and walking - all the places with no sidewalks and only 4 lane busy roads. And the tax base won't be there to get these things on board. I would like the federal government to take some stands on mandating the 'safe streets' stuff which would mean all new roads need to account for bikes and pedestrians. But of course- everything in the burbs is so far away. Whats the solution to that?
I bike almost everywhere and live in a big city. What is sad is that the people most profoundly affected will be poor people. People who can afford it will move to cities and walkable communities. Those that can't, won't. They'll be stuck in the burbs with no infrastructure for biking and walking - all the places with no sidewalks and only 4 lane busy roads. And the tax base won't be there to get these things on board. I would like the federal government to take some stands on mandating the 'safe streets' stuff which would mean all new roads need to account for bikes and pedestrians. But of course- everything in the burbs is so far away. Whats the solution to that?
That much money for fuel, particularly diesel (since America has such a poor rail system) means that inflation will likely be as bad as it was in the 70's. For those to young to remember the seventies, congratulations, ask you parents.
I'm stepping into a life where money and jobs will probably have minimal effects, so hopefully by the time it gets that high I won't be affected at all.
I am already moving to help with the $4 a gallon price. If gas prices increase to $10 I would imagine many US families would be forced into bankruptcy.
I'm stepping into a life where money and jobs will probably have minimal effects, so hopefully by the time it gets that high I won't be affected at all.
I'm stepping into a life where money and jobs will probably have minimal effects, so hopefully by the time it gets that high I won't be affected at all.
i think it would have devastating effects on our economy, i mean look at whats going on now and thats only at $4/gallon. I feel bad for the middle class and lower classes, its going to effect them the most. i hope it does not come to this.
Forget gas. Feed your addiction while you still have the means. If food and water security at the local level aren't on the table right now with your government, however, then everyone suffers in the long run. What if your water were $10 a gallon? Does that seem implausible?
As far as getting around is concerned, I get around by bike with little trouble except for the really bad and heavy snowstorms and their aftermath (such as we had every 2-3 weeks all winter here in Montreal), but as others have already pointed out, our entire transportation system -- apart from rail --, over which food and other goods are carried, is heavily dependent on petroleum-derived fuels. As fuel prices climb, this is inevitably going to be reflected in the prices of (non-local) food and other goods.
The saddest thing is that Jim Kunstler and others were pointing out CLOSE TO TEN YEARS AGO that this is what would inevitably happen! Even now, those who "lead" us still seem to be in denial mode: just witness the proliferation of car-centred development outside and inside cities, as if the happy mooring orgy will still be going on twenty years from now...
Now is the time we need to be seriously cutting down on car use and immediately putting in place the alternative carfree infrastructures, especially for city dwellers, where there is no plausible justification for relying on space- and resource-hogging private automobiles to get around.
And things will not improve one whit if, in the true spirit of greenwashing, car drivers -- while conserving energy slightly by replacing incandescent lightbulbs with compact fluorescent or LEDs --, nonetheless insist on pumping up electricity consumption exponentially by switching to electric cars en masse just so they can continue the unjustifiable luxury of driving everywhere.
We need to collectively make the change NOW to human-powered individual transit and limit externally-powered transit to public transport within and between cities, leaving individual automobiles to rural areas where there is no practical alternative. Now is the time to begin the change, not sometime later.
Yes! Jack those prices!
Make gas expensive enough that air, hydrogen and electric vehicles make it to market and survive. Thrive even!
Imagine... a zero emission world? If ONLY coal would become horribly expensive too....
$10 a gallon is a good thing. At that cost it will force a major rethink and ultimately redenition of life and in my opinion a better quality of life for many. Right now suburbia exists because of cheap gas, but if the reason it was able to exist goes out of reach then life will readjust and people will move back to the cities, demand public transportation, better fuel efficient cars will be demanded too. Communities where biking and walking are a part of the transportation scheme will become the norm. The wastefulness of our society will change, because everything becomes much more expensive to make. I bet a lot more indivdual gardens would appear too.
There will be pain, but in the end it will be a good thing and ultimately better quality of life for us.
We're smart people. Economies will adjust. Hopefully businesses will start to localize and communities tighten up. Too much farmland has already been lost due to unnecessary sprawl.
I suggest taking a look at how the majority carry their usual activities; quietly slipping into a bike-walking model is simply undoable as the dangers, distances and other adverse conditions multiply. Any shift from our "free" and wasteful model will surely bring unrest and the goverment, backed by public disconfort will take the "necessary" measures to procure the resources.
In fact, its just what's going on at this very moment.
We DO need to change to a lower consumption model, but the tools, technological and socially engineered must SOMEHOW happen before the gallon hits that number. Will it happen? My fingers are crossed bacause I don't have much faith in the mass.
I suggest taking a look at how the majority carry their usual activities; quietly slipping into a bike-walking model is simply undoable as the dangers, distances and other adverse conditions multiply. Any shift from our "free" and wasteful model will surely bring unrest and the goverment, backed by public disconfort will take the "necessary" measures to procure the resources.
In fact, its just what's going on at this very moment.
We DO need to change to a lower consumption model, but the tools, technological and socially engineered must SOMEHOW happen before the gallon hits that number. Will it happen? My fingers are crossed bacause I don't have much faith in the mass.
I don't like the high price of gas, however I hope it continues to rise. The more costly gas gets the more consumers will switch to alternatives... and the faster it rises the more quickly the switch will occur.
It would destroy the way we live in the US."
Cybercat
This is not necessarily a bad thing. Maybe we need a new way of living.
As for me it won't effect me too much since i vowed to never drive a car, and we will be getting alot of our food from our garden and also making our own food like bread, ice cream and sodas. I'm also planning on greatly reducing my purchases so as to reduce my waste. And I try to make all my purchases as local as possible. So hopefully, if there is a hike in price that big it won't hit me too hard. Either way, it will be interesting to see what happens.
I have rode upon a Honda Ruckus for my 32km commute everyday since 2006 after concluding that paying $1/L was bad enough, and only going to get worse. Even at $3/L I'm laughing.
Several coworkers - many who live much closer - are taking notice, and one who lives the same distance away as myself, but drives a truck might show up on Monday on top of a new scooter as well.
Sure, it's not a bike, or electric, but compared to the disturbing sight of seeing so many single occupants in large pickup trucks used for their daily commute, my 90 MPG ride is a sound intermediate solution - and cheaper than buss fare (which is prohibitively useless where I live).
GOOD! Bring it on! I've been petrol-independent for years with a combo of WVO and home-grown oil-sunflower fuel, as well as other alternatives [I'm well schooled in wood-gasifacation, compost/manure-methane, plug-in EV conversions, off-grid living, etc...] So let it get REALLY ROUGH out there for the gluttonous consumption-class Joe-average Americans! Since most people WON'T change their behavior until their habits become too uncomfortable to maintain, I gladly WELCOME $10 gas! [and $15 diesel for that matter!] Infact, let's tax the hell out of it ON TOP of the escalating production costs! The sooner we get the costs up, the sooner change will occur, IMHO...
I live in Northern Virginia and work downtown DC. If gas ends up costing that much, I'll just have to start taking the bus and metro more.
In this area, it's just about changing one's attitude of convenience vs. planning. There's a bus stop that goes directly to the Pentagon Metro Station just a block from my house. There's maybe 10 people in my neighborhood (out of thousands) that use it daily.
In other words, the mass transit infrastructure is there (buses) - most people just don't use it. Now the DC metro trains... that's a different story (packed cars and high volume!!!)
I voted Other.
We are already paying $4.84 / U.S. gallon so we don't drive much; driving is a luxury item for us. We walk or ride an electric disability scooter. Bus transportation is readily available too.
Find ways to adjust; $10 / gallon is inevitable, probably within two years. We are competing with the emerging auto ownership of China and India for limited supplies.
I'd be screwed. We can't afford to live in the town where my husband works, and there are no jobs in the town we live in that pay as much as he makes. (Which still isn't much.) We'd never get to see family members, who live a minimum of 25 miles away. We could still bike to the grocery store and stuff (which we plan to do as soon as we get bikes and trailers to carry kids/groceries) but our town is not set up for biking. There is NO public transportation in our town.
And that's just the driving aspect. Then we'd have to consider the cos