What's Next for the IPCC?
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 04.24.08
Image courtesy of the World Economic Forum via flickr
Topping a Nobel Peace Prize-winning performance won't be easy, but the IPCC is hoping to do just that with its next report, set to be released no later than 2013, by honing in on two key themes: practicality and precision. Meeting last week in Budapest, Hungary, the government delegates to the multilateral organization agreed to several procedural changes that would help streamline the process -- and ensure the next report is released on time.
Science's Eli Kintisch reports (sub. required) that the scientists agreed to focus on providing more information about the actual impacts of global warming and what can be done to reduce GHG emissions growth. In order to get the report out by 2013, within the usual 6-year time frame, they decided to omit several sections -- primarily the more data-heavy scenarios some researchers use to build their global warming models.
Image courtesy of UCAR
They also decided to push the concept of having the panel's three working groups develop their reports in parallel rather than sequentially; as Richard Moss, a scientist at the World Wildlife Fund, explained, the new cooperative mindset will "expedite and improve the process" by reducing uncertainty and providing governments with better policy prescriptions.
Significantly, for those (like us) who've criticized the IPCC for being too conservative or for employing outdated numbers, the panel sponsored a series of workshops to elaborate more timely emissions scenarios -- taking into account new statistics on energy use, population growth and emissions reductions technologies. Its members chose four to use in future models, the most pessimistic of which predicts atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could hit 1370 ppm by 2100; the most optimistic one predicts they will peak at 490 ppm before starting to fall.
The use of only 4 scenarios -- the previous report used over 40 different scenarios -- to build climate models is expected to lead to greater cooperation and consistency among the modeling community. By employing the same set of starting conditions, modelers will better be able to compare their findings and collaborate on developing more sophisticated models.
Rajendra Pachauri, the current chair, is widely expected to reprise his role when the IPCC's members meet this September in Geneva to elect their leaders.
Via ::Science: IPCC Tunes Up for Its Next Report Aiming for Better, Timely Results (journal, sub. required)
See also: ::Has the IPCC Outlived its Usefulness?, ::Al Gore And IPCC Panel Win The Nobel Prize
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Wow, you would think a science based institution would be able to swing one of the science prizes. I guess those are reserved for real scientists.
"practicality and precision."
Holy Moly, that's a huge swing from the ambiguity and make believe from their original reports. They must be getting funding from big oil now to do things like present facts and things of that nature.
" . . . the most pessimistic of which predicts atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could hit 1370 ppm [, just slightly over the ideal amount for food production] . . . "
I added something in there... can you see the difference?
"By employing the same set of starting conditions, [and way more play-doh] modelers will better be able to compare their [fantasies] and collaborate on developing more sophisticated [stories]."
You mean they aren't working from the same data now? Plus they are working with incomplete data since we have no clue at all how climate works? Wow, they must know EXACTLY what's going to happen in the next 100 years.