Graphic Of The Day: Historical Water Use And Scheduled Depletions Of The Colorado River System
by John Laumer, Philadelphia on 04.22.08
There's not enough time and money to build a Great Lakes pipeline; nor will there be enough water in the Great Lakes to sustain Lake Mead (Colorado River System). If the climate coin flips the wrong way - there's an estimated 50% chance that "live storage" in the major reservoirs will be gone inside of 14 years, as discussed in the following abstract - those with enough money will be moving to Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc. And poor Mexico...
See also::Jeremy's coverage of this in "Las Vegas Strip Could Run Dry by 2021" AND for further background see Tim's "Water Weirding: American Southwest on Uncertain Ground" AND for some good news see " Upper Colorado River Basin Flows Projected Best In A Decade"
Abstract of the paper "When will Lake Mead go dry?" follows:
[1] A water budget analysis shows that under current conditions there is a 10% chance that live storage in Lakes Mead and Powell will be gone by about 2013 and a 50% chance that it will be gone by 2021 if no changes in water allocation from the Colorado River system are made. This startling result is driven by climate change associated with global warming, the effects of natural climate variability, and the current operating status of the reservoir system. Minimum power pool levels in both Lake Mead and Lake Powell will be reached under current conditions by 2017 with 50% probability. While these dates are subject to some uncertainty, they all point to a major and immediate water supply problem on the Colorado system. The solutions to this water shortage problem must be time-dependent to match the time-varying, human-induced decreases in future river flow.
Tim P. Barnett1 and David W. Pierce1 Received 27 November 2007; revised 22 January 2008; accepted 5 February 2008; published 29 March 2008.
Wondering what happens to the coal fired generation capacities that have to be abandoned in the worst-case scenario (50% chance)?
Via::: Barnett, T. P., and D. W. Pierce (2008), When will Lake Mead go dry?, Water Resources. Research., 44, W03201, doi:10.1029/2007WR006704. By subscription.
Thirsty for more? Check out these related articles:
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It is amazing. I believe it to be true although at times it does seem quite unbelievable. I live in Page, AZ. The town right next to Lake Powell. We will be having an awesome spring run off this year. But I predict that next year we will have one of the most devestating drought years to come. Every year after that could be very dry according to climate conditions.
Most people here are oppotimisitc. I am not. Although, I think that even with money I will stay. I love the desert I live in. If I have to collect rain water or travel hundreds of miles to get water I will. I am part of the red sand stone that makes up this area. I would never be able to leave it, even if it meant risking dehydration.
I am not a lake enthusiast, I am a desert rat.
I blogged on Tim and David's piece when it came out.
Because they are scientists, not economists, they did not consider the impact of behavioral change. (They used business as usual scenarios.) I suggested that one way to PREVENT their scenario is to increase the price of water by $10/AF for each foot that Mead drops. After awhile, it will be too expensive to use that water and it will NEVER dry up.
Read my blog for more on water and economics (and humans!)
I blogged on Tim and David's piece when it came out.
Because they are scientists, not economists, they did not consider the impact of behavioral change. (They used business as usual scenarios.) I suggested that one way to PREVENT their scenario is to charge $10/AF for each foot that Mead drops. After awhile, it will be too expensive to use that water and it will NEVER dry up.
Read my blog for more on water and economics (and humans!)
I blogged on Tim and David's piece when it came out.
Because they are scientists, not economists, they did not consider the impact of behavioral change. (They used business as usual scenarios.) I suggested that one way to PREVENT their scenario is to charge $10/AF for each foot that Mead drops. After awhile, it will be too expensive to use that water and it will NEVER dry up.
Read my blog for more on water and economics (and humans!)