Food Shortages Drive Global Prices to Record Highs
by Lester Brown, Washington, D.C on 04.23.08
A fast-unfolding food shortage is engulfing the entire world, driving food prices to record highs. (Check out the full report or podcast.) Over the past 50 years grain prices have occasionally spiked due to weather-related events -- such as the 1972 Soviet crop failure that led to a doubling of world wheat, rice, and corn prices. The situation today is entirely different, however. The current doubling of grain prices is trend-driven, the cumulative effect of some trends that are accelerating growth in demand and other trends that are slowing the growth in supply.
The world has not experienced anything quite like this before. In the face of rising food prices and spreading hunger, the social order is beginning to break down in some countries. In several provinces in Thailand, for instance, rustlers steal rice by harvesting fields during the night. In response, Thai villagers with distant fields have taken to guarding ripe rice fields with loaded shotguns.
In Sudan, the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP), the organization responsible for supplying grain to two million people in Darfur refugee camps, is facing a difficult mission to say the least. During the first three months of this year, 56 grain-laden trucks were hijacked. Thus far, only 20 of the trucks have been recovered and some 24 drivers are still unaccounted for. This threat to U.N.-supplied food to the Darfur camps has reduced the flow of food into the region by half, raising the specter of starvation if supply lines cannot be secured.
Food riots are now becoming commonplace in Egypt, Yemen, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Haiti, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, and Senegal. (Examples of food price unrest.)
Even prosperous Japan is not immune from food shortages.
Around the world, a politics of food scarcity is emerging. Most fundamentally, it involves the restriction of grain exports by countries that want to check the rise in their domestic food prices. Russia, the Ukraine, and Argentina are among the governments that are currently restricting wheat exports. Countries restricting rice exports include Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Egypt. These export restrictions simply drive prices higher in the world market.
The chronically tight food supply the world is now facing is driven by the cumulative effect of several well-established trends that are affecting both global demand and supply. On the demand side, the trends include the continuing addition of 70 million people per year to the earth’s population, the desire of some four billion people to move up the food chain and consume more grain-intensive livestock products, and the recent sharp acceleration in the U.S. use of grain to produce ethanol for cars. Since 2005, this last source of demand has raised the annual growth in world grain consumption from roughly 20 million tons to 50 million tons.
Meanwhile, on the supply side, there is little new land to be brought under the plow unless it comes from clearing tropical rainforests in the Amazon and Congo basins and in Indonesia, or from clearing land in the Brazilian cerrado, a savanna-like region south of the Amazon rainforest. Unfortunately, this has heavy environmental costs: the release of sequestered carbon, the loss of plant and animal species, and increased rainfall runoff and soil erosion. And in scores of countries prime cropland is being lost to both industrial and residential construction and to the paving of land for roads, highways, and parking lots for fast-growing automobile fleets.
New sources of irrigation water are even more scarce than new land to plow. Meanwhile, the backlog of agricultural technology that can be used to raise cropland productivity is dwindling. And the rising price of oil is boosting the costs of both food production and transport while at the same time making it more profitable to convert grain into fuel for cars.
Beyond this, climate change presents new risks. Crop-withering heat waves, increasingly destructive storms, and the melting of the Asian mountain glaciers that sustain the dry-season flow of that region’s major rivers are combining to make harvest expansion more difficult. In the past the negative effect of unusual weather events was always temporary; within a year or two things would return to normal. But with climate in flux, there is no norm to return to.
The collective effect of these trends makes it more and more difficult for farmers to keep pace with the growth in demand. With grain stocks at an all-time low, the world is only one poor harvest away from total chaos in world grain markets.
Business-as-usual is no longer a viable option. Food security will deteriorate further unless leading countries can collectively mobilize to stabilize population, restrict the use of grain to produce automotive fuel, stabilize climate, stabilize water tables and aquifers, protect cropland, and conserve soils. Stabilizing population is not simply a matter of providing reproductive health care and family planning services. It requires a worldwide effort to eradicate poverty. Eliminating water shortages depends on a global attempt to raise water productivity similar to the effort launched a half-century ago to raise land productivity, an initiative that has nearly tripled the world grain yield per hectare. None of these goals can be achieved quickly, but progress toward all is essential to restoring a semblance of food security.
This troubling situation is unlike any the world has faced before. The challenge is not simply to deal with a temporary rise in grain prices, as in the past, but rather to quickly alter those trends whose cumulative effects collectively threaten the food security that is a hallmark of civilization. If food security cannot be restored quickly, social unrest and political instability will spread and the number of failing states will likely increase dramatically, threatening the very stability of civilization itself.
(Full report or podcast of press teleconference.) More on the food crisis ::UK Chief Scientist: Food Crisis Will Bite Before Climate Change ::Food Prices Dominate News: Now it's Pizza Time ::Food Prices, Food Eaters Run Riot ::Global Warming Melting Glaciers, Shrinking Harvests in China and India
Lester Brown is founder and director of the Earth Policy Institute and a regular contributor to TreeHugger. Learn more about alternative energy and solutions for a sustainable future in his previous columns or read a review of and download Plan B 3.0.
Photo top: Courtesy of Getty Images. Photo bottom courtesy of Andy Sacks/Getty Images.
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The corn needed for a tank of biofuel would feed someone for a year. While we rush towards this or that solution to the carbon issue, we are inadvertently starving out the third world. Algal biofuel does not impact the foodstream, can be harvested year round, and harnesses the fastest growing plants in the world. So why are we using food? Between 25 and 30% of the current price increases can be attributed to fuel production. Let's step away from the pantry when trying to make fuels as we create an immediate and dire issue...
Scott
90% of corn is feed to cows.
The mash left from making ethanol is better feed for cows than the corn itself.
Let's look at ethanol as a by-product from making better cattle feed.
All of a sudden, we can make food and fuel.
It works in India, they grow energy crops, make ethanol, use the remaining mash in an anaerobic digester and get all of the methane needed to run the still. They bubble the co2 rich methane through water to extract the co2 and use the co2 rich water to grow algae...which is feed to fish...which are sold and then the fish emulsions fertilize the next energy corp.
Biofuels should not be produced from farm land. However, there are opportunities to create biofuels from residential waste. We may as well use it if it's available.
As an aside, years ago, in the 60's and 70's many of us were calling for population control. Some, like Barry Commoner, were calling us arrogant. Some, like Jerry Falwell. were calling us evil. But we were right. Now more people are suffering and dying. Meanwhile, the wealthy, along with the same religious zealots who fought to end birth control, are trying to takeover the environmental movement as theirs, while denying that they are responsible for much of the problem in the first place. Tree Hugger is just as guilty in promoting companies like WalMart, the kings of environmental destruction. The problems we face will take a lot of money. In the United States, the money exists. It is in the hands of the wealthy (yes Bono and Oprah, that includes you too). They need to give back. Oprah should give $100 million, at least. The Waltons should give $100 billion. And Bono, what you raised in your Red campaign is chump change for you (although, to your credit, you did raise some awareness). All of you wealthy should start giving it back. If you don't give it we should just take it.
How much has international hoarding and stockpiling of foodstuffs contributed to this problem? Are speculators making a killing in grains as they do in oil? The poor and starving of the world are not of interest to the commodities traders, are they? I fear that greed and corruption now, and waste and spoilage in the months down the road will be revealled as important factors as profits soar on these markets.
How much of the price increase in food crops is really due to "food for fuel" and how much is due to currency inflation?
ALL commodities are going up in price, and we're not using copper (or any other commodity) to make fuel.
I see the United States is being used as the usual whipping boy because of the push for biofuels. Aargh. I hope our politicians are paying attention and just drop CORN ethanol already.
At least other problems are being outlined. So many essays I've seen on the current situation seem to want to blame JUST the United States. Indeed, also blame climate change, fuel supplies which seem to be diminishing (with no readily-available alternatives) a more affluent population too used to good times, agriculture until recently in decline in some countries, and a still-exploding (debatable, given current problems) human population.
When my fellow countrymen think that the United States is in a world of hurt because the bottom fell out of the higher-end housing market, I have trouble maintaining my temper. We in America could be helping the world, but instead we're dealing with a financial crisis made by the people moaning about it, at a time when the world needs help the most and the countries that are supposedly "more powerful" and "richer" than we are aren't doing much of anything to help, but rather are hording food (not that we don't in America, but things like meat just aren't easily made a multinational good.) Despite usual American hatred, the world will figure out that we weren't such bad folks, I fear. And honest, guys, at least here in the Midwest, most of us are losing weight, finally. Real shame it took having food being prohibitively expensive to make that happen.
Lacking here are real solutions to adapting to the current situation...not surprising because I've seen so few solutions other than "make less babies" and "stop turning food into fuel." Not turning food into fuel won't fix some countries, like England and Japan, dependence on imports for 60% of their food, it won't fix imbalances between different parts of the world, and it won't fix the fact that in some countries, grain stores are at times as high as 50% waste. Nevermind that this won't fix subsidies and deliberate food waste (as in, throwing food away) just to drive up prices. It doesn't address using arable cropland for things like tobacco--what was the statistic, 1 in 4 Indian children are smokers? And it doesn't address non-traditional food sources being explored right now, and even in some cases used successfully, such as Spirulina.
No, I guess America is unlucky in that we chose to ramp up production of a poor source of ethanol at a time when droughts have been on the rise. Oopsie. Maybe we'll move on to algal (there's that algae again!) fuels, in conjunction with not driving so dadgum much.
I suppose it will be clear soon enough that we're not going to be able to keep eating cheeseburgers and havin' babies. I'm not making light! I for one would be just fine with eating more of a heart-healthy diet. McDonalds, are you paying attention? Your ways aren't sustainable, and your business model is a destructive one! Am I the only one who thinks they could make a ton more cash selling salads and mushrooms? :-)
More on the UN's efforts in using Spirulina to fight malnutrition: http://www.pomun.org/pilot.htm
It's really quite astounding stuff, if even half the claims are true. Here in the U.S. it's seen mainly as a dietary supplement. I have some here at the house, after reading up on the stuff, to see if the supplements have any beneficial effects; too soon to tell. Yet it's apparently so easy to grow and so jampacked with nutrients that it has the potential to be a major boon to the world's poor and malnourished.
When I read about what "we' should do; I stop to wonder what THAT person is doing to improve the situation.
Forget trying to solve a global problem and focus on your immediate community. When your immediate community is well, then your community can help the next larger system, and so on and so forth.
Lead by example
A healthy family/community is better equipped to help the next.
higher fuel and food prices? we spend time in Europe each year and observe their less selfish means of feeding their people and supplying transportation. No system in the world is perfect, but we are, by and large, the most selfish, self-serving nation on the face of the earth. As long as WE have our SUV tanks filled to make many unnecessary trips to useless places, as long as WE can dine out several times a week and don't consume the overabundance of food on our plates, as long as WE get every single need met, we can blame the rest of the world for its woes. Sick, isn't it. I love reading all the sane alternatives in this site, but sadly, we are too selfish to do anything about it unless it hits OUR pockets. Finally, we are seeing and feeling how the rest of the world is coping. This has been coming down the pike for at least 25 years - gee, let's wait a bit longer and see how it plays out!
Maybe it is time for countries to start paying serious attention to its rural residents. They are in a position to aid with food security for each nation. In most nations around the world, agriculture (especially peasant agriculture) is treated with disdain. Chronically depressed farmgate prices over the last century has led to a flight of people to urban areas. With it has gone all the expertise in growing crops in various climatic conditions, never to return. This loss of expertise in return increases the likelyhood of crop failures under challenging conditions and eventually leads to food shortages.
The reason North American and European farmers have pushed so hard for bio-fuels is to improve their net returns from farming by diversifying the outlets for their crops. This was a natural reaction to their economic plight, not some massive conspiracy. When oil prices started going up, they saw it as an opportunity to finally make some money from farming without waiting for government hand-outs in the form of export subsidies.
Contrary to popular belief, it is not genetic engineering or bringing more land into production that is going to solve the shortages. It is politics, plain and simple. Most countries have had a cheap food policy for way too long, this has led to massive losses of agronomic expertise by depressing farm gate prices all over the world. If we want to stem the tide, we need to pay enough for locally grown food crops to give a proper rate of return on investment to the people growing the crops. If policy is made around this principle, we may be able to stave off the next famine. If not we are sitting ducks. The vast majority of us don't have a clue how to feed ourselves including most, if not all politicians.
"90% of corn is feed to cows."
so you argue to feed the "mash" byproduct of ethanol to cows?
What about the option of not raising so much cattle? The beef industry in the US is gigantic and subsequently causing strain on both the land and the economic situation of farming throughout the nation.
If more of you (the you who are not vegetarian/vegan) stopped consuming as much (or any!) meat, there would be more corn to feed PEOPLE. After all, aren't all of our efforts in support of the human race?
kendra, allthough i see your point and do not dismis others opinions, i simply like meat to much to give it up entirly, now cutting back, ya that i can do. but a good BBQ can never be ignored or refused
kendra & chris-
You can both win: cows should not be eating corn (or corn mash) in the first place. They can't digest it properly. Cows are perfectly adapted to eat grass, which happens to grow on a huge swath of American soil that can't support crops. We stopped letting cattle graze on the range freely because it was more convenient and cheaper to keep them in one place. And also because our insane farm policies created a glut of cheap corn. That cheap corn has now found a more profitable (if equally insane) use in the creation of ethanol, so maybe we'll see a corresponding return to grass fed beef...
With all this talk of how to further increase the SUPPLY, I see no one offering suggestions on how to decrease the DEMAND.
Six and Three Quarters BILLION is more than enough. The planet Can NOT sustain this burden.
There has never been a more critical time to focus on reducing global reproduction.
Let's take care of all the children in need who are already here, before we make any more.
A generation ago there was much interest in eco-systems and eco-balance. But not now. There is just self interest and personal agendas. Since we are often considered the bread basket of the World, the obvious thing to do is to reduce the cost of production. Solution: Food for Oil. This approach would reduce the cost of food grains and increase the supply. And it would bring stability and reality back to the price of Oil. Further it would reduce the cost of delivering food to the needy.
People here in Yemen are suffering of FOOD high prices. Very soon ( may be within this year), TERROR will be more than ever.
Yemeny people are very poor,not because of the NATIONAL INCOME SHORTAGE, but because of the OFFICIAL SYSTEM's CORRUPTION.
So which strong country will stop this -system ?????
Sana'a, Yemen.
Thanks a lot for this info. I am writin a geog report and this stuff rocks. I just wish these murderers biofuel business men stop and go to heaven bb. :)
Thanks a lot global-warming cultists. The push to use food crops for automobile food was the initiating event in the collapse of the food supply chain.