Electric Car Rollout Hits Road Bumps
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles 
on 04. 6.08
Image courtesy of Fisker Automotive
It's easy to get caught up with the glamour and hype associated with the latest high-wattage EV rollout - heck, just take a look at some of our own breathless coverage (though, to be fair, we've also been skeptical of some of their loftier claims); yet, when it comes time to crunch the numbers and view them in perspective, it becomes much more difficult to see a viable, long-term future for many of these new start-ups. Few articles that we've seen have laid it out in such stark contrast as this recent LAT piece by Ken Bensinger.
For a slight taste of what's to come, you need only read the following:
"What he [Elon Musk] didn't mention was that Tesla's Roadster had arrived months behind schedule with an improvised transmission that reduced acceleration by 40%. Or that the San Carlos, Calif.-based company's visionary co-founder had been abruptly ousted months before. Or that Tesla plans to make fewer than 1,000 of the cars this year -- and sell them for $100,000 apiece."
Though the article centers on the fate of California-based startups Tesla and Fisker Automotive, Bensinger explains some of the headaches in store for all the recent automotive newbies: lack of financial and technical know-how, leadership deficiencies, competition from their larger (and much better capitalized) competitors and market potential. Indeed, as much as we like to gush about these sleek cars, how many of us will really be willing - and able - to lay down the cold, hard cash (roughly $100,000) to get them?
As with most start-ups, there is always the worry of under-delivering - the perfect example of this being Zap, which Wired recently took to task for consistently overhyping products that failed to materialize. Even as companies like Tesla begin production of their first vehicles, one has to wonder how they will be able to quickly streamline the manufacturing process, fulfill their requests and broaden the vehicles' appeal to the mainstream. CARB's decision to cut the number of zero emission vehicles it will require automakers to sell in the coming years certainly won't help either.
That's not to say that they won't manage to quiet the critics and eventually establish a foothold in the eco-enthusiast market. With Tesla recently announcing its plans to bring the Roadster to the European market, in an effort to capitalize on the weak dollar, time will only tell how successful their long-term operations will be.
Via ::Los Angeles Times: Road for electric car makers full of potholes (newspaper)
See also: ::Tesla Motors Starts "Regular Production" of Electric Roadster, ::Yet Another Of Ann Coulter's Dislikes: Electric Cars
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The fact that electric cars are going to be expensive at first is not really such a big deal to me.
Think how expensive computers used to be. The price eventually came down, and now lots of people have them and they are mainstream. That's how it goes for most new tech.
What is frustrating to me is that they don't exist at all, and you can't buy one at any price. (One that isn't a low speed vehicle, I mean.)
$100K for a Tesla? Well, a lot of people ponied up some big non-refundable deposits, and you still can't actually own one yet.
I test drove a prototype Phoenix Motorcars electric pickup more than a year ago, and you still can't buy those either. "Next year" they'll be available, you keep hearing.
I'm willing to spend $60K right now for an electric car that will go at least 70 mph and will travel at least 50 miles on a charge.
I've got my wallet out, and I'm ready to write a check as soon as something exists that meets those specs or better.
Will that be in 2009? 2010? 2011? I guess we'll find out, eventually.
What about everyone else?
How much would you pay, and how fast would it have to be capable of, and how far would it have to go on a charge? How long before they're as cheap as a Civic?
I put a deposit on a Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid. I think Fisker's taking the opposite approach to what Tesla did, with all the hype they generated expectations that wound up disappointing a lot of people. Well, some people, anyway.
By contrast, almost nothing is known about whether or not Fisker will actually deliver cars at the end of 2009 or not, and if they do, whether they're going to be anywhere close to the $80,000 base price they announced. But, hey, we can all wait and see.
And quite honestly, by the time my Fisker arrives in 2010 or 2011, or 2012, gasoline will be $5.50 a gallon here in the US, and $80,000 for a car with an electric range that can get me almost anywhere I want to go on a daily basis is going to look like a bargain. And I'm probably going to be driving my 48 mpg 2004 Honda Hybrid Civic up until the Fisker comes -- and that's going to "save" me money while I wait, thereby making the Fisker (sort of) affordable from a dollar cost averaging perspective.
Ie., 2004 -- I spend $18,600 on the Hybrid Civic, keep it for six years. 2010 -- I spend $80,000 on the Fisker Karma, keep it for five years. That's about $700 a month on car payments over that 11 years, or about the car payment on a typical luxury car or SUV.
In Cleveland Ohio you can drive a past and old factory that once housed ancient automotive manufacturers such as White Motors, Peerless, Winton, Baker, Stearns Chandler...
In the early 1900s Some 70 automotive manufacturers began in the city alone in the age of the "horseless buggy". Some were even electric powered. Over 1000 nationwide.
It all whittled down to what the gas powered cars we drive today. It's not surprising that "alternative fuel" car companies today are struggling.
To coin Battlestar Galactica phrase: "all of this this has all happened before, and it will all happen again. ...
BTW The Crawford Auto Museum houses all of these former companies' cars
More like "Electric Car Rollout Hits Dead End".
There are already EV's that hundreds of millions of people are using everyday. Trains, bicycles and trolly buses.
Give up on the fantasy of the electric car. It is not a solution to our environmental issues. More likely, it will simply create a bunch more. Don't forget that the automobile was the answer to the environmental and health problems created by the horse. We all know how well that worked. Thankfully, the age of the automobile is over.
Time to move on and get excited about real solutions including high-speed rail, mass transit, and electric bikes.
Here is some good news on high-speed rail:
http://www.paloaltodailynews.com/article/2008-4-6-bullet-train
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News_by_Industry/Speed_machines_13_states_want_Bullet_Train/articleshow/2929820.cms
All these news make me feel glad about the Aptera. Those guys have been doing R&D consistently on schedule, proving their wise management and commitment.
If your ready to own an electric car, well why not make one? All you need to do is some study on electrics and go buy your needed electrics (motor, controler, batery, etc. *if thats not all, lol)
With them $60K (US or CDN) for sure you'll be able to get 70 mph+, you just need the right car with smooth curves (or not).
I'm presently a student, but eventualy (if the right plug-in EV isn't out) I'm going to make one and get it licensed.
Wish you good luck on the project! Hopefully ;)
Cell phones were expensive bricks that didn't work very well in the 80s.. I guess they should have abandoned then.
The more investments in EVs the more likely a significant breakthrough will emerge. There will be some big winners.
People have been trying for free energy for years as well and trying to turn lead into gold. That doesn't mean it is possible.
Regarding cell phones and electronics. They become more powerful and energy efficient the smaller they are. This only applies to cars up until a certain point. They have to be large enough to fit people in them. After that, you can't make them any smaller and have them be of any use. A certain amount of energy is required to move a vehicle and its occupants around. That is why you can't compare advances in electronics to developments in the automobile.
There aren't enough resources on the planet for every one to have a car, electric or not. It is not sustainable. No amount of research and development is going to change that. Its like hoping for a miracle. Don't bet the future on something that is not very certain.
"Time to move on and get excited about real solutions including high-speed rail, mass transit, and electric bikes."
Ha ha -- clearly Richard doesn't live in Los Angeles.
Lars,
The Think! City (http://www.think.no) does 60 MPH with a range of 124 miles. Not quite your 70 MPH spec, but it appears to be a serious car, if a bit small. It's supposed to go on sale this spring for approximately 20K Euros (about 32K US).
Will it? I don't know, but it seems more reachable than a Tesla. The Think OX is larger and more attractive, but is only a prototype now. If the City does well, the OX might follow.
There aren't enough resources on the planet for every one to have a car, electric or not. It is not sustainable. No amount of research and development is going to change that. Its like hoping for a miracle. Don't bet the future on something that is not very certain.
Unless you have a crystal ball, I don't know how you can say that. We already have over 600 million vehicles in the world, one for every 10 humans. If you assume that 50% of those are privately owned cars, that's 1 for every 20 humans. Now let's define "everyone", as every household, and assign four people per household, on average. This would require 1200 million cars.
1200 million electric vehicles would use less energy than our current fleet of 300 million internal combustion cars, because electric motors are far, far more efficient. Still, this would only be sustainable if the vehicles themselves had long lives and were fully recycleable at the end of them.
Hard to envision perhaps, but by no means impossible.
In any case, in densely populated countries and regions cars are not practical. If you live in Manhattan you are likely not to own a car, regardless of your income or how green you are. The key is density, public transport, and car-based alternatives when required (cabs, rentals). In our increasingly urbanized world, many people will opt out of owning cars so long as they have access to them when needed. We will never have 1200 million cars, even if every household could afford one. More like 600 million.
And I do believe that technology can make 600 million cars environmentally sustainable, probably even today. The problem is that this would break the oil business model, and there is too much power behind it.
Ay yiy yiy!
The anti-electric car wing-nuts just won't STFU. Look, wackos, put the tinfoil hat back on and get lost. We're done with you.
I only wish that it were possible to actually identify these loop jobs. Then, in 2012, when Volts, PHEV Prius, Tesla Whitestars, etc. are all over the place, we could publicly shame these people. So much so that they would be pointed at and jeered when they walk down the street. You know, like when the vice squad prints the mug shots of johns in the local paper.
Oh well, guess that'll never happen. This lot will continue to do their best to stifle progress in anonymity.
I find it rather ironic that the one device that almost everyone believed wouldn't work (EEStor's super capacitor) is obviously working quite well, since it's schedule to begin production this year. Sounds like this device will make all currently devloping EV and plug-in technologies immediately obsolete.
Also sounds like the media, inclduing this one, will e caught unawares. If the folks at Treehugger had a brain, they would round up a Corolla and contact ZENN Motors to get on the conversion list. But they won't. And they'll be surprised yet
again. So what else is new?
I'm rooting for the coming of the affordable EV, but not holding my breath. Since I don't have Tesla money, it may be a while before something is introduced that you can actually buy.
I'm not sure I want to get a Th!nk EV, but please see the reason why: they are planning to sell the car, but LEASE the battery pack. The article I read said something to the order of 200 pounds/month. When you look at the exchange rate, that shows leasing the battery pack for ~ $400/mo. I don't lease (long-term rent) my car, if I'm paying for it, I plan to keep it after the payments run their course.
This puts me in the same boat as GaBio above. I'm saving up to do a conversion.
Starting ANY company is no small feat. But Zap has certainly had it's fair share of abuse over the last few weeks (like the article from Wired and the review from Truth About Cars).
On the whole, it seems like Tesla's been doing a little bit better as their Roadster has finally made it into regular production. But all those delays certainly didn't help. I've seen a few Tesla Roadster prototypes driving around the SF Bay Area which is definitely exciting. I hope that once a few of them make it out of a 10 mile radius of the Tesla headquarters, people might believe that electric cars aren't just a pipe dream.
keep in mind GM made the EV-1 and it was wonderful! the 3rd gen had a range of nearly 300 miles, and it was capable of being very fast.
The oil companies didnt like the competition, and although there was not 1 cent spent on advertising for the EV-1 there were over 50,000 people on the waiting list to get one when GM recalled them all, took them out into the desert and crushed them.
We have the technology, TESLA is a great car, and part of the reason it is so expensive is because they start with a Lotus Elise and convert it. The eBox is the same thing, but nearly half the price because it uses a more affordable Scion to begin with.
I think Phoenix SUV/SUT is on the right track, building from the ground up, designing it the right way, similar to the Tango and the RAV4-EV, however the costs are high because all of the parts are one off, and are made with expensive CNC machines, one at a time. with more capital it is easier to purchase machines that stamp out the pieces, not only faster, but the metal stock is less costly. (think sheets, as opposed to blocks of material) This is why Phoenix is selling to fleet and government only at this point. They make more capital up front with someone like PG&E ordering 10,000 vehicles, and handing them a check, than selling 50 per day to the public. They have the trucks now, they are just really expensive. When the vehicle is using less expensive parts, the price will drop as well, as did with cell phones and computers, and ...
Tesla is not a converted Elise, it is an Elise derivative, and the Elise is such a great success because it is in fact one of the most economical ways ever conceived to build a low volume car of that caliber. It's a no frills simple car built on the equivalent of a lego chassis. They do not buy an Elise and strip it down, they just use the Elise chassis concept, and suspension bits.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7072924456318931568
The reason the tesla costs a fortune is that it's an electric car, and it's low volume, both of those factors demand a premium, put them together and you're talking a fair bit of coin. Batteries are expensive and will likely always be that way. Look at mass produced batteries, for the power they offer laptop and standard cell rechargable batteries (9V, AA, car batteries) do not come cheap. Like it or not we are already mass producing batteries, and the materials involved are expensive (when compared to a fuel tank and cheap gas motor).
As for EEStor, a lot of very qualified scientists hope that it works but wouldn't invest their own money. Their claims are based on extrapolated data from 20 year old work that didn't lead anywhere. Not to mention that as one person pointed out, capacitors tend to explode, and at the energy storage they claimed we're talking about enough "boom" to level large buildings. Car problems could now qualify as full on disasters. It would be the equivalent of pressurizing your gas tank with pure oxygen.
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?ch=specialsections&sc=batteries&id=18086&a=
As for the "coming soon" claims, I hope so, but their methods reek of snake oil salesmen.
Like it or not electric cars aren't going to come in the form of a tidal wave, they will trickle in as low mile commuters for quite a while. The best compromise we're likely to see are plug in hybrids. And even then if you're getting your juice from coal, you aren't really helping the problem (22% efficient compared to say 30% for diesel).
Sorry to rain on the parade but realism is the only way we are going to get things done, blind faith won't fix the problems.
I don't think we have to give up on the idea of electric cars, just on the idea that we can have cheap electric cars that are also sleek and fast.
Check out Aptera. 26k USD for Californians for all electric - 120 mile charge from 110VAC plug in 2-4 hours.
Emerging technology will always meet road bumps, some because the technology is evolving and some that may be placed artificially. ZAP has faced a lot of ire from forums like Wired, but the fact is that it is the only company delivering road worthy EVs right now, and people should appreciate the work they are doing is against pretty stiff odds
Mass transit, biking, walking is all fine for commuting to and from work or school or traveling within a large metropolitan area.
But what about when you need to go shopping for a piece of furniture, large amount of groceries or need to go with your whole family (ie. babies, children, pets) out somewhere? Or you live outside of a large city and buses/trains come by once every few hours?
Yes the ideal world would be one where no one would need a personal car, but it is far from that and a lot will have to change to make owning a car a thing of the past.