Arctic Ice Cap Could be Gone by the Summer
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 03. 2.08
Image courtesy of ashfay via flickr
How low will they go? Putting a date on the melting of the Arctic ice cap has been a popular prediction game among scientists of late; in recent months, we've heard estimates ranging from 2030 to as early as 2013. The latest salvo comes courtesy of Xinhua, which reports that Olav Orheim, the head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, is placing his money on this summer.
Noting that its ice sheet had reached a historical low of 3m sq. km last summer - it covered around 7.5m sq. km as recently as 2000 - Orheim told Xinhua that "if Norway's average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away."
Barring this disaster, Orheim predicted that excess carbon dioxide emissions and higher average temperatures would unpredictably alter the region's fragile ecosystems. On a separate note, he said that Asia would likely be hardest hit by rising sea levels, estimating that a one meter rise would affect "nearly 100 million people on an area of 800,000 square km in Asia and direct economic loss will amount to 400 billion U.S. dollars."
He urged developed nations to take the lead in significantly reducing GHG emissions and in crafting a post-Kyoto Protocol climate treaty framework. While his prediction may seem a bit outlandish, there's no denying it may very well come to pass; after all, it wasn't too long ago that climate scientists were confidently asserting that the Arctic ice cap wouldn't be melting until at least the second half of the century. If there's one thing scientists have learned over the past few years, it is that the effects of climate change are too variable and convoluted to make accurate predictions.
Via ::Xinhua: Expert: Arctic polar cap may disappear this summer (news website)
See also: ::Antarctic Ice Grows as Arctic Ice Declines, ::Just How Bad Was this Summer's Arctic Melting?
Maybe its like a bonfire. The more fuel the higher the temperature.
Sad :-(
Here's an interesting tidbit that noone seems to mention...pbs did one of their Nova specials on the changes in the magnetic forces of the Earth..a sort of polar shift being detected especially in the southern hemisphere between Africa and South America. It was somewhere around 2001 when it was being noticed. Supposedly every half a million years there is some sort of polar shift. If we are in the beginning stages of a shift and the magnetism of the Earth is weakening as it begins to "relocate" then we are seeing global temps rise not just because of "human influence" but because of natural causes as these now weaker magnetic forces are responsible for protecting the Earth from UV rays. just something to think on
It's probably important to make the distinction that what is being projected is the potential loss of all summer sea ice in the arctic. The loss of sea ice in itself does not contribute to a rise in sea levels, just as an ice cube melting in a glass of water doesn't raise the level. Though the decrease in average sea ice over the year and the corresponding decrease in arctic albedo (reflectivity of sunlight) could potentially increase the rate of glacier loss in Greenland, which would raise sea levels.
One wonders whether the arctic may be a place where some of the "geoengineering" solutions might be tried. Perhaps creating spring/summer cloud cover to try to prevent summer loss of sea ice... if atmospheric conditions would permit such a thing.
Not good at all.
This link is to animations of the Arctic Sea, especially Beaufort Sea. The images are updated regularly. It looks like the Arctic in a blender. Is this the 'tipping point'?
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/App/WsvPageDsp.cfm?Lang=eng&lnid=43&ScndLvl=no&ID=11892
there was that article recently with the year to year shots of the artic ice. and over the past few seasons it dropped some 40% opening up the northsea passage.
if the next season drops this by more again, considering the last melt was something like twice as bad as the previous (by recall, dont quote me) then the next really be enough to have it melt pass a limit to which the warm waters in the freeze season could finish it off. i recon 2013 is about on the mark if you look at the trend. but nature doesnt usually doesnt follow a trend as theres too many factors.
anyway, with peak oil and the ice cap, i think 2015 is going to be interesting.
i think it would be a real shame to see an earth without a north pole. im interested in theories on greenland with no northpole, would it melt faster or slower? as no north pole means europe into a ice age, whats the effects on greenland then? slight warmer and higher seas or not? would that require another tipping point before it goes? would be have another chance to fix things?
it might provide the shake up we need to begin fixing things seriously. governments need to commit to this like its WW3 or we are going to go the way of the aztecs
It's probably important to make the distinction that what is being projected is the potential loss of all summer sea ice in the arctic. The loss of sea ice in itself does not contribute to a rise in sea levels, just as an ice cube melting in a glass of water doesn't raise the level.
that's not completely true. thermal expansion causes warmer water to have a larger volume than colder water. it isn't as much as having land ice melt of course, but if the oceans warmed enough tomorrow to melt all floating sea ice you'd actually see a measurable rise in sea levels.
There's always that one (or more) person who will say at the end of an article like this one that this is not caused by humans. Who cares? This is something that we need to worry about, and the steps we must take to stop and hopefully reverse climate change will help more than just the environment. Think about the political effects of an end of the dependence on foreign oil. That's something to think about...
Thank goodness for mortality.
In the summer of 2007 an unprecedented 50% of Arctic ice melted, this was not covered by the news in the way you might think it should so most people arent aware of it. So one good thing is it will be a little hard to ignore when the arctic is no longer white for the first time in human history. Yes its true this will only raise sea level an inch or so because it is water not land based ice BUT there are two things to consider by the top of the world changing its albedo from light to dark we will see an unprecedented increase in absorbed solar heat causing a dramatic speeding up the of the global warming process. Also in 2007 the permafrost on the land ares around the arctic was melting at an alarming rate also something that has never happened before in human history, why is this important the permafrost has or had frozen methane in it which is being release at an alarming rate methane is 25 times more powerful a green house gas than co2. Again fueling warming even faster. And dont forget that Greenland ice shelf is also melting and this WILL raise the sea level by 23 ft and could happen suddenly not in a century or fifty years or even 10 but this year or very soon. And the Antarctic is also melting too.
And in reaction to those that may say this is not due to humans but a natural cycle. Yes there are cycles the earths orbit does change and is in fact changing right now to a more eliptical one this causes our global mean temperature to LOWER not rise! And so even tho we should be getting cooler were are not. And it matter little whether or not we did it the results will be the same and catastrophic. And I am afraid to say that even tho I am all for going green and do so myself realistically the whole world will not cut co2 overnight and even if we did the current co2 levels will not be absorbed for many decades, I am afraid there is no stopping or slowing it.
Let's not forget about that the predictions that all of England was supposed to be underwater by 2000 and that all aquatic life was supposed to be completely gone by 1980 (both predictions made by Paul Ehrlich, president of Stanford's Center for Conservation Biology) in 1969 and 70, respectively.
These predictions were made in reference to global cooling.
And Emily, that would make sense, considering that the STI (Solar Total Irradiance) has been increasing/decreasing in perfect proportion with the annual arctic-wide surface temperature anomalies for the past 120 years. (A boast that CO2 levels can most certainly not make.
If the Earth is experiencing magnetic polar shift, then that would certainly explain shifting STIs.
On the other subject brought up about the magnetic field issue. Yes some scientists think based on past record that we could experience a magnetic pole flip and subsequent temporary (how long no one knows) loss or weaking of the magnetic field and also the magnetic field has been weaking about 10% over the last century. Keep in mind that the earths magnetic field keeps out radiation NOT heat and its loss could mean lethal amounts of radiation could get thru to the surface in fact mass extinctions may have correlations with this event in the past. The date this is most likely to happen based on the earths position relative to our galactic plane is Dec 21 2012. This has nothing to do with global warming however.
There has been an avalanche of snow and ice on mars as caugth on one of their space probe photos. What caused the avalanche on MArs. If it was because of a gradual warming of Mars as well, then the CME's on the sun may be warming up the Solar system.The earth could handle it but pollution in our atmosphere (CO2) is capturing the extra heat instead of the natural green plant systems protecting the planet. So if the Magnetic field is also failing then the earth will heat up and radiation will bombard everyone. This means many plagues are about to hit the earth of unprecedented types.
Its's time for everyone to repent and go to church and not just whitewash (or greenwash) their lives with profit based solutions. Electric cars will be OK to slow the disaster down but the problem is much bigger than that.
I don't think most people understand how dire the situation is at the polar ice caps. If anything the IPCC reports are underestimating the pace at which climate change is effecting the world around us. In order to prevent a cataclysmic environmental disaster, we need to move as quickly as possible to having near zero emissions. That is the conclusion of a new paper in Geophysical Research Letters (subs. req’d) co-authored by climate scientist Ken Caldeira.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2007GL032388.shtml
Alarmist.
Too much ice melted last summer for the remaining pack to be stable. The storms have broke it loose and are churning it like a blender.
I sent this link to Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground and asked him if what is happening means we will experience more melt this summer than last.
He sent me a reply that said YES.
No matter what you think the reason for the melt, global warming, natural cycles, or religion, the simple fadt is that this is happening. It's not something that will maybe be a problem in 50 years. It's a problem NOW.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/App/WsvPageDsp.cfmLang=eng&lnid=43&ScndLvl=no&ID=11892
my freezer is defrosting was this caused by my dog farting close by or did al gore have something to do with it..
I believe the Polar Ice has re-established far beyond last year's coverage and shows added thickness over much of the area. This is consistent with a growing number of scientists who claim the Earth is heading into a 50 year period of declining temperatures and then should remain "relatively cool" for the next 100 years.
Since my comment is neutral and suggests a reasonable "wait and see" approach, sharply at odds with any Global Warming trend that makes this site look a bit off the mark, I suspect it will not make the posting. Still, I thought i would try...
Reading the "doomsday" comments that are here......It makes me wonder what happened to common sense. The ice caps are GROWING at record rates. There are satellite images to prove it. Ice cap "shifting" isn't the same as MELTING. There is far more proof to debunk global warming than there is to support it. You believe what people "tell" you rather investigate all subject matter on this issue. I once believed in global warming and I felt completely stupid once I compared all of the information once I had researched it. Just because Al Gore made a doc doesn't mean its is truth. A lot of people have been fooled. Al Gore stands to make a LOT of $$$ if he can get this "global warming" ball rolling. This is completely out of hand and its embarrassing to see generally logical people sound like they have steped off into the deep end of the "uninformed" pool. Please research and hear ALL THE information before you take a position. Listening to only one side leaves you lop sided and ill informed.
one large volcano can put more greenhouse gases in the air in a week than we could in a hundred years. get a clue people, the earth is in constant change and thru real science we know the earth has spent more time without ice than with ice by millions of times. warm periods made it possible for life to grow on this planet. as someone here as already stated, dont worry about warming, worry about what comes after it, when to sea current stops the ice caps will come back with a furry. glacial periods dont take a thousand years to take over, it can happen in a year, look at the records fro the 1600's. melting snow or the flow of fresh water into to ocean stops the current that brings warmth to the north and south poles, stop the current and instant ice age. no doom or gloom, just the facts. we have contributed to this trend but it would have happened anyway, its earths little population control mechanism.
to read these last few comments. Basic earth science demonstrates that humans have been releasing more carbon into the atmosphere over the last hundred years than about 100 volcanoes erupting... yet these guys continue to say "Not Me! Not Me!"
Sorry to burst your bubble, like US fiat currency, or Enron, or Fannie Mae. Sometimes no matter how much you want/need/have faith something is true (or false, as the case may be) your comments on this post will merely be evidence of your irrational attachment to being "right" that you willingly distort facts... in other words tell big lies about volcanoes and the ice caps a growing. Lies.
http://gristmill.grist.org/skeptics...
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/17/223957/72 where even one of your own denied the denial before the cock clucked thrice:
"I have never heard a skeptic making that ridiculous claim [about volcanoes]. It seems you are putting up a straw man in order to be able to kick it. The skeptics are not that dumb"