Fuzzy Math Leads to a (Serious) Reevaluation of Shipping's Climate Impact
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 02.14.08
Image courtesy of tinou bao via flickr
The Guardian's John Vidal has the scoop on a leaked UN study that reveals the extent to which previous estimates have low-balled - by almost two-thirds - the amount of emissions produced by the world's shipping fleet. Annual carbon dioxide emissions have now reached a whopping 1.12b tons - almost 4.5% of all global carbon dioxide emissions - a far cry from the 400m tons figure the IPCC had previously pegged.
In what must surely come as a slap to EU nations - which do not take these into account when calculating their emissions targets - the study suggests that shipping emissions will continue their meteoric rise - surging another 30% by 2020 - joining vehicles, housing and industry as one of the largest single sources of anthropogenic GHG emissions. To obtain these new figures, a team of international researchers, tasked by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), crunched the numbers collected from the oil and shipping industries. The results weren't pretty.
The scientists hope the study will prompt EU nations, which have consistently downplayed the contribution of their merchant fleets to climate change and refused to include them in their national emissions estimates, to incorporate shipping emissions into the next UN climate treaty - at the very least.
The study also found that other shipping-related pollutants, including sulphur and soot, were on the rise; these harmful emissions, which are known to cause lung cancer and various respiratory diseases - another study found they contributed to over 60,000 deaths a year - are projected to increase by over 30% in the next 12 years.
While it's encouraging to see some companies taking the initiative in switching over to cleaner (and innovative) technologies, pressure - in the form of new regulations and incentives - will need to be placed on all parties to ensure large-scale reform and the adoption of better practices. Given the heavy pressure that the aviation industry has been under to reform its ways - its annual emissions, around 650m tons, (almost) pale by comparison - it seems only fair, and necessary, that governments start cracking down on the shipping industry as well.
Via ::The Guardian: True scale of C02 emissions from shipping revealed (news website)
See also: ::First Transatlantic Voyage of Kite-powered Ship, ::EPA Petitioned to Limited CO2 Emissions from Ships
Why did anyone think otherwise? Under sail, water transport is the most efficient and eco-sensitive ... no wonder sail craft are an ancient technology.
Speed is the primary issue. The faster the speed (ok, velocity), the disproportionate increase in power required, by orders of magnitude.
Ever been swimming? Ever walked on the pool deck alongside a swimmer? Notice the difference in effort required?
This was not 'low-balled' by a third, but rather by almost two-thirds.
the aviation industry doesn't "pale" by comparison. Per ton shipped Aviation is much much much higher.
Boats are by far the most efficient method of large scale transportation available (maybe not compared to trains...but trains don't go on water). But it could always become more efficient :-)
Why not make the ships electric hybrids? They already use electric engines right? Strap some solar panels to the top deck, put a sail or two or three up (the newer turbo sails like that on Jacques Cousteau's boats) and you've probably just saved yourself tons of emissions and fuel costs!
Theo... some ships are hybrids in the sense of having diesel engines generate electricity that is then used to power electric drive motors. However the primary advantage of hybrids for cars is regenerative braking which wouldn't work on a ship that basically only starts and stops once per thousand mile trip. Solar panels would create significant problems for loading of container ships and wouldn't at all be economical. As for sails, you might google skysails.
For those interested in this topic check out
http://www.oceana.org/climate/solutions/oceana/no-more-free-ride/
Here is some info from their page (though also a bit outdated).
* Only six countries in the world release more carbon dioxide than the global fleet of marine vessels.
* This fleet releases between 600 and 900 million metric tons of carbon dioxide each year, an amount equivalent to emissions from at least 130 million cars -- about the number of cars operated in the United States.
* A single container ship emits more global warming pollution than 2,000 diesel trucks.
* By 2020, these emissions could double 2002 levels, and they could be triple those levels by 2030.
* Ships also are major releasers of nitrogen oxides – contributing nearly 30% of the world’s releases. This amount too is expected to triple by 2030.
* Another pollutant released by ships, black carbon, or soot, can warm the air hundreds of thousands of times more than the same amount of carbon dioxide. Black carbon may be responsible for as much as 25% of observed global warming.
"Strap some solar panels to the top deck, put a sail or two or three up (the newer turbo sails like that on Jacques Cousteau's boats) and you've probably just saved yourself tons of emissions and fuel costs!"
Unfortunately at $4/watt and efficiencies of ~15%, no way solar photo voltaic will save much fuel. It may however be a good way to reduce the fuel used to generate electricity for the crews quarters.
Out of curiosity once I did the math on covering the entire roof of an RV with solar panels, and it came out to about 6kW (750W=one horsepower) so would generate a whopping 8 HP for a 50 foot long by 8 foot wide vehicle.
Solar has useful applications, but I would think that using the wind to reduce fuel use in a ship is a much more cost effective idea.
Re: shipping "equals almost 4.5% of all global greenhouse gas emissions."
Actually if you read the article, it is 4.5% of CO2 emissions, not all gases. Still, it amounts to a lot!
John Vidal posted a related article later in the day at:
Shipping boom fuels rising tide of global CO2 emissions.
Same URL but with a 1 at the end.
The article explains why ships are so incredibly polluting:
Ships exploit a ready supply of the world's cheapest, most polluting "bunker" fuel. Marine heavy fuel oil, which is burned by all large ships, is the residue of the world's oil refineries. It is as think as tar.
The industry has grown so rapidly - it now carries more than 90% of the world's trade by volume, and has tripled its tonnage carried since 1970. And cargoes have to travel further due to a shift of production away from the US and Europe to China and south Asia.
Eat and shop local!
Paul and SteveL: thanks for the helpful comments; the appropriate corrections have now been made.
the new sky sails that were launched on a boat recently seems to be the most promising though it only reduces emissions by 10% or so - I wonder if a 10 times bigger sail could reduce the cost by 5-10 times more??
"I wonder if a 10 times bigger sail could reduce the cost by 5-10 times more??"
The size may be limited by practical aspects of operation. It is already 5000 square feet. Kites of similar size weigh hundreds of pounds without the lines. , It is probably farily combersome to unfurl and launch as is.
I'm sure the manufacturer spent some time optimizing the design and is probably continuing to develop it to improve its effectiveness.