Peak Oil + Peak Money = McMansion Meltdown
by Lloyd Alter, Toronto on 02. 1.08
Now there are websites that help you walk away from your mortgage, using the same stock photos that used to adorn the mortgage company websites. And where are they walking away from? Triple Pundit notes that the areas hardest hit by the subprime meltdown are:
Subdivisions built on the edges of urban areas where once arable land is bulldozed to make way for over-sized, energy-intensive houses, with landscaping consisting of grassy yards adorned with non-native species of trees and shrubs, the whole lot of it out of character with the natural surroundings and located so that most residents are forced to drive miles and miles to get to work, for too often there is no public transportation available."
-Houses that need too much energy to heat or cool, too much gas to get to, and too much money to pay for. No wonder people are walking away. ::Triple Pundit and ::Atlantic
James Howard Kunstler predicted this at TED four years ago.
Thanks for this post,
In the four years of studying Urban Planning in the late 80's early 90's - not once did anyone ever raise the issue - "What if people cannot afford to commute?" Sustainable Development, Transportation Planning, Livable Cities, Urban Renewal, Urban Design, Social Planning - we thought of impacts on each other and the environment - but not once did we ever take into account "What happens when the price of oil is too high and the price of commuting is a barrier?".
I hope now it is discussed in the classroom - this is going to be the largest issue facing urban planners for the next few decades. Thanks Lloyd for posting this and the clip from Kunstler at TED.
Cheers - Eric
www.pickuppal.com
Just been looking at the You Walk Away website ... and it is not a scam, but it nothing more than an information service. In short, as they say on their website, they are not a real estate broker, lawyer, or investor ... instead, they charge you $1000 for information that you can get for free (or much cheaper) from other sources.
This type of service will be snapped up by the same people who snapped up the large mortgages without doing the research first.
Also, they are telling people that they can live in the home for 8 months ... and telling them that it may be two years until they can purchase again ... so, where are they going to live in between? Rental? But where are the rental properties?
typo: to(o) much energy to ...
From the clip: "Forget the hydrogen economy."
Ad at the end of the clip: BMW Hydrogen 7...
Hey, why don't people who read Kunstler do what he really wants and give up and just commit suicide. Seriously, if apathy is your only angle, just give up and give the next person in line a shot.
And Lloyd? How much do you get for posting Kunstler clips?
This issue is discussed heavily in the classroom and is definitely a top priority when designing. Designing for this is easy, it's selling this to the public that is hard. It can be and will be a tough gig. I never thought coming in as a first year student that I could be trying to sell something as if I were a used car salesman. Unfortunately for many Americans, the hard reality of economics is doing the selling.
Graduate Student, Landscape Architecture: Ball State University
Your home may have lost value today. But will it never be worth as much or more than when you purchased it? The same thing happened in the late 80's recession. Many homes have more than doubled in value since then.
Your house is an investment. Some investments rise and/or fall in value. Did someone ever promise you that the value of your house could not decline. Unless you're in a desperate situation, there's nothing worse (or stupider) than selling an asset when it's at it's lowest valuation in an investment cycle.
The point has been made that since many of these mortgages were zero-down and folks immediately took out equity loans, they have no 'skin in the game'. Their 'skin' is their credit rating and the revised bankruptcy regulations that make it far harder to write off your financial obligations.
Yeah, you can walk away from that house; but what happens when you want to buy another house or get a loan to buy a car or something else? Likely you will be denied, have to put up a very high down payment, or be stuck with far harsher loan terms and interest rates. This is an excellent way for many to move from the middle class into the working poor or poverty level.
Many people have chosen to purchase large isolated houses in exurbs. They have traded a longer commute in order to buy more house and some of the advantages of semi-rural living. Fuel costs more now, so the variables in this equation have changed. In a shrinking economy it can cause real pain to be married to high fuel and heating costs.
The problem is we have the main people who design and build homes[the tract builders]who have no motivation to promote sustainable design.They build real junk,meeting minimum energy codes and,built to fall apart in about 25 years.The average consumer has no idea what they are getting and what the real costs are.It is not dificult to build a reasonably sized zero energy home,as I tell clients "you can pay me a littlre more now,or the utility allot more for the rest of your life."Just simple proper building orientation can create a much more efficient home.The savings in energy and construction costs will prevent the "meltdown"