Climate Change Expected to Drastically Alter California
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 01. 2.08
Image courtesy of Californian Em
Droughts and wildfires may well turn out to be the least of Californians' worries if some scientists' projections of what climate change-induced effects will befall the state's landscape come to fruition. First to fall victim will likely be California's (already short) ski season; a shorter snowy season - with snow that will melt much faster - will reduce the ski season by a month in some areas and, in others, end it entirely. Battered by a string of wildfires and water shortages, Southern California's sky season has already begun to suffer.
While opinions differ among scientists over the specific changes global warming will effect, the general consensus is that temperatures will rise 3 - 10°F statewide by century's end, potentially leading to a drop in rainfall across Southern California; this would put at great risk a variety of animal and plant species that live in the deserts east of Los Angeles. In an effort to save the iconic Joshua trees from uncertain doom, scientists are already considering relocating their seedlings to areas where the plants might endure.
Image courtesy of Omar Omar
Another concern is that warmer temperatures and more rain in the north could drastically reduce the Sierra snowpack, which typically stores 35% of the state's annual water supply. The loss of such a significant source of water could imperil the state's $30 billion agriculture industry and spark costly water disputes between urban and rural residents. As in other alpine regions around the world, the Sierra's has already started to recede, putting different plant species - including the giant sequoias - under stress and altering the region's long-established flora.
"I suspect as things get warmer, we'll start seeing sequoias just die on their feet where their foliage turns brown. Even if they don't die of drought stress, just think of the wildfires. If you dry out that vegetation, they're going to be so much more flammable," said Nate Stephenson, a USGS ecologist who is studying the impact of climate change in the Sierra Nevada.
Perhaps the most worrying unknown is what will occur along the state's coast when the world's glaciers and ice sheets melt; a particularly gloomy scenario has predicted that the sea level could rise by more than 20 ft, potentially inundating the busy ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles. That's not to say what will befall California's marine residents: A weakening of the upwelling season, during which nutrient-rich deep water is brought to the surface, could starve the sea lions, fish and other organisms that depend on this source of food.
If the above scenarios don't provide the necessary impetus for some change - particularly in Southern California where residents continue wasting gallons upon gallons of water (amongst other resources) every day - we really don't know what will.
Via ::Associated Press: Global warming to alter Calif. landscape (news website)
See also: ::Global Warming or Not: The Debate Over California's Wildfires, ::California Says Sprawl Causes Global Warming, ::Global Warming Will Worsen West's Water Crisis in Coming Years
eric y and jay whitlow heard from a friend near tahoe, whitlow reports they are expecting 5-8 feet with wind gusts over 130 mph! this may or may not be related to climate change but it's certainly phenomenal!
eric y and jay whitlow
What I wonder is, how will peak oil affect global climate change, presupposing that the peak has/will occur between 2006-10?
Does anyone do their climate change models with a sharp dropoff in oil production and consumption in the next 30 years?
I assume someone has done that sort of modelling, but maybe based upon a voluntary reduction in consumption of oil rather than a forced reduction due to reaching peak oil production.
My understanding is that "Peak Oil" means that the production of oil, the amount of oil we can pump out of the ground worldwide, has peaked. We've reached a maximum. It will be many years before that amount is significantly reduced, however. Much of that oil is used for fuel and so releases a lot of carbon. Without dramatic change (which seems unlikely) the amount of carbon we pump into the biosphere probably will not change for many years.
We will see shortages of oil and higher prices because Indian and Chinese and other "third world" economies are booming. So now they want as much oil for their industries as is used in the West. Since the world cannot increase the amount of oil "produced," this increase in demand is going to dramatically increase the cost of oil.
I'm no expert, but based on my reading that's my understanding of some of our problems in connection with peak oil.
Yes and no, Foraker, on your understanding of Peak Oil production.
If the demand for oil continues to increase, and assuming we've reached the peak, oil supplies will disappear and production will drop off very quickly.
As an example, say you're lost in the desert with 3 people. You have 3 gallons of water. Your party is then joined by 2 more people lost in the desert. Do you think the water will last more or less time now that you've been joined by more people and everyone consumes at the same rate, or greater than before the 2 people joined? (wow, a rhetorical word problem)
Essentially, we have a set limit of oil left, but with population gain and futher industrialization of the "third-world" the demand for oil will increase.
So, we might burn more fossil fuels in the next 10 years than we have the last 30, but the oil might be "gone" in 20 years.
Also consider that much of the new oil resources being developed, tar sands and oil shale, have much higher CO2 emissions during their extraction and processing. So even though oil my plateau and then start declining, the CO2 released from the production and use of oil my still continue to climb for some time after the peak.