Climate Change Causing Malaria in Papua New Guinea Every Year, Says Expert
by Eliza Barclay, Nomad on 12.18.07
Malaria epidemics in the highlands of Papua New Guinea are "now basically happening every year" as a result of global warming, Ivo Mueller, a scientist at the Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research, recently told the Associated Press. The World Health Organization recorded 4,986 malaria cases in the country's Western Highlands province in 2005, compared with 638 cases in 2000. About 40% of Papua New Guineans live in the highlands, where there used to be "no malaria or low epidemic outbreaks," Mueller said.
Mueller added that if predictions of temperature increases of three to five degrees Fahrenheit prove true, "perhaps two million people would go from a low- or no-risk area to considerable risk." Malaria parasites need at least 64 degrees Fahrenheit to develop, but scientists have found that a small rise in temperature can increase significantly the size of mosquito populations.
Population movement, deforestation, inadequate health care systems and other factors can influence the spread of malaria. This year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found in its annual report that "despite the known causal links between climate and malaria transmission dynamics, there is still much uncertainty about the potential impact of climate change on malaria at local and global scales." However, there is "no question ... if you put climate change into the equation and the climate change becomes more favorable, the mosquitoes' numbers go up, and you're going to have more and more transmission," Mueller said. ::Via AP
That's a pretty weakly supported statement, global temperature increase causes significantly higher malaria infection rates because of an increase in mosquito populations.
I'd love to see some studies showing a direct correlation between Malaria infection rates and mosquito populations, mosquito populations and temperature and then temperature and Malaria infection rates. Especially if they've been controlled for moisture, region and human and animal populations, not to mention time as well.
Heck I'd love to see a study that can even accurately count mosquito populations in traditionally mosquito intense regions.