Water Crisis Scenarios For The US Southeast
by John Laumer, Philadelphia on 10.16.07
The water shortages in the US Southeast are serious now, as Lloyd's post of this morning well points out. Before you go read Lloyd and the New York Times, we suggest you do a little scenario thinking with us.
Here are two equally plausible scenarios for the next year. I named them to make for easy conversation. More scenarios are possible; but lets start with two. Which one do you think most resembles the future direction the Southeast is headed?
Springtime In Dixie
Real rain comes back in the winter and spring of 2008 - at least enough to pull back from the edge of a regional crisis - and life returns to "normal." More big houses get built. The landscape service trucks again block intersections every morning as usual. Power plant expansion plans go back in play. The cries of environmentalists for more water conservation measures fade into the din of traffic shuttling to and from the distant suburbs. Climate change is maybe not so real a threat after all.
Vote For Rain
Because of modest amounts of rain in winter and spring, immediate crisis is averted, even though the long term trend of serious drought remains. Vote for Rain represents a growing clash between the realities of rural and urban life and denial that nature itself has changed, masked by demands that "The Government" do something. Waiting for the government sustains a collective sense of denial that drastic changes in lifestyle are around the corner. The popular notion of individual responsibility does not encompass resource conservation (except for some silly Tree Hugger types).
By the late summer of 2008, city folks are unhappy, but getting by. However, the agriculture, forest product, and energy sectors are on in a near emergency state. Practical interdependencies of urban and rural life are spoken of now. Wild fire and brownouts are real risks.
By the 2008 election season, there are ballot measures to force closure of water intensive industries. Other proposed measures mandate changes to individual behaviors: lawn watering, car washing, water blasting decks, driveway washing, types of toilets permitted by zoning, and so on.
Gubernatorial candidates make a host of promises: pipelines from the Great Lakes; water desalination plants; return to public ownership of previously privatized water systems; bringing in experts from the US West, formation of water resources planning councils, and more. There is even talk of economic development zones based on development of water saving technology.
Candidates for Federal office promise "calling in the National Guard" to haul water and the Army Corps of Engineers to "do something."
Yet, by election day in November 2008, little has changed, as these are all long term solutions. Per capita water consumption, on a steady down slide for months has plateaued by end of summer. The obvious need for serious lifestyle and design changes are barely discussed in the news. There is a sense that things will get better next year.
Vote for Rain does have a good news component. It gets people talking and thinking about climate change. The linkage between per capita energy consumption and per capita water consumption and climate is made for some. Vote for rain marks a tipping point in public consciousness, then.
Image credit::WX-Man, Accuweather Forecast from 2005
I am sorry but I have to disagree with a pipeline from the great lakes for water intended for personal use. Water for farming is fine by me but if you CHOOSE to live in a place where water is naturally scarce then it is your problem. The great lakes region may not have the best weather in the country but some of that is down to the fact that we border the largest bodies of fresh water on the planet. If you want water move to where there is water. This site often talks about "buying local" but why doesn't that hold true when it comes to water.
Angry regionalist rant over
My future vision is tingling... the SE will recieve rain, and what appears to be drought relief. Enough water will flow to divert the headlines toward celebrity mis-doings, and projects previopusly put on hold will move forward. By early summer, some warning will start to pop up about "not being clear of the drought" but will be downplayed in order to keep industry rolling. And by this time next year, everyone will be in the same squeeze and the national guard will be trucking in water, after elderly already start dying. But until then, we are safe to ignore it and pretend it's not an issue.
Coming back now from the future...hmmm...am I back? It's hard to tell. Things seem to be similar, drought, doing little to nothing, OJ is in jail. What year is it?
Look mattyanks, we didn't choose to live in an area where water is naturally scarce. Water wasn't scarce. Hundreds of thousands of people have moved here in the last decade or two. Poor planning combined with over-consumption leaves us in this state. Nobody is talking about piping in water, thats asinine.
And yet we still have people watering their lawns every other day.
=== author's response follows ===
Actually, someone from Alabama is talking about it.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/09/how_long_until_1.php
It is not just a comment on this site, here is the governor of Nevada and presidential candidate talking about it
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=671644
Bill Richardson is our governor here in New Mexico, mattyanks.
I wish I could support Bill Richardson (of new mexico), because I like his stance on climate change, but he's boring and doesn't think on his feet. He's unelectable, and would crumble under the republican ass-hole machine. Too bad, because other than LGBT rights he looks the best by far on paper to me.
So, we get stuck with Hillary to face fascist Rudy.
(I use fascist in its true meaning [the Italian one], I'm not calling him an anti-Semite or a Nazi. militarism, totalitarianism, anti-communism, corporatism, etc, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism)
Stealing water from the great lakes is just about the worst solution there is for this problem. People are so eager to fix their own problems, they don't even look at the facts or consider other people before jumping to conclusions. The great lakes region has been in an extended drought for the last 7 years, and climate change is causing a sudden and alarming water level drop in lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan, the three largest lakes. Superior in particular is extremely low, and it just recently reached the lowest level on record, about two feet below the norm.
The point is, the southeast is not the only area suffering from drought, so deal with it locally and don't make other people's problems worse.
I don't know much about politics or government. I am just a housewife with some college education. What I do know is this. It seems to me that the government is doing nothing to solve this water crisis. Oh sure, they tell us on the news to conserve water usage and pose restrictions......but no one knows if their neighbor is watering the lawn @ 3 am while they are sleeping. People are going to wash their cars, and fill their pools , etc. without a second thought for the future. A human body can live a month without food......but it can only survive 3 days without water. The panic and devastation is imminent. If only someone with money and power would speak out. Bad things happen when good people do nothing. Where are the brains of this country? If we could get rid of the illegal aliens and stop housing murderers in prison we might just have enough water and other resources in America for the law abiding citizens that deserve their birth right to survive. America, wake up!