Quote of the Day: Carl Sagan on the World Population Crisis
by Jasmin Malik Chua, Jersey City, USA on 09.17.07
There is a well-documented correlation between poverty and high birthrates. In little countries and big countries, capitalist countries and communist countries, Catholic countries and Moslem countries, Western countries and Eastern countries—in almost all these cases, exponential population growth slows down or stops when grinding poverty disappears. This is called demographic transition. It is in the urgent long-term interest of the human species that every place on Earth achieves this demographic transition. This is why helping other countries become self-sufficient is not only elementary human decency, but is also in the interest of those richer nations able to help. One of the central issues in the world population crisis is poverty.
The exceptions to the demographic transition are interesting. Some nations with high per capita incomes still have high birthrates. But in them, contraceptives are sparsely available, and/or women lack any effective political power. It is not hard to understand the connection.
At present there are about 6 billion humans. In 40 years, if the doubling time stays constant, there will be 12 billion; in 80 years, 24 billion; in 120 years, 48 billion. ... But few believe the Earth can support so many people. Because of the power of this exponential increase, dealing with global poverty now will be much cheaper and much more humane, it seems, than whatever solutions will be available to us many decades hence. Our job is to bring about a worldwide demographic transition and flatten out that exponential curve—by eliminating grinding poverty, making safe and effective birth control methods widely available, and extending real political power (executive, legislative, judicial, military, and in institutions influencing public opinion) to women. If we fail, some other process, less under out control, will do it for us."
—Carl Sagan, Billions & Billions: Thoughts on Life and Death at the Brink of the Millennium (1998, Ballantine Books)
I was always suspicious of the old "demographic transition" mumbo jumbo when I took demographics back in the 1970's. Never seemed like they had causation right. Sure the correlation is there but that proves nothing of causation.
Take Saudi Arabia for a contradiction, where there is an inverse relationship between education and income. My gut instinct was and remains that the better correlation is between family size and education.
Take Saudi Arabia for a contradiction, where there is an inverse relationship between education and income.
The smartest people are the poorest and the dumbest are the richest in SA? Beyond doubtful.
Having an education doesn't make you "smart". It makes you educated.
Having an education doesn't make you "smart". It makes you educated.
I'm sorry, did I ruffle your feathers?
Care to correlate intelligence with educational attainment level? Want to bet how that plays out?
What happens when poverty is eliminated?
Check out the Ted Talk by Professor Hans Rosling on poverty, birth rates and sustainability based on animated statistics - one of the most entertaining lectures you'll ever get.
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/140
/Marcus
How about wiping out malaria, which kills 3,000 children per day in Africa? Or dehydration, which kills 30,000 chilldren annually? If children in poor countries had a better outlook for surviving their first five years, maybe women wouldn't have to keep replacing them.
http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0042-96862003000600029
www.savethechildren.net/nepal/key_work/crc_nepal.pdf
Is there 1 anonymous here?....or 2....or 3??
We would be locked in the stone age without the notion of poverty. Humans' prime directive is procreation (genetic survival), which has developed into a function of male status and the promise of wealth (men no longer need to club sabre-toothed cats). Wealth by definition requires poverty. Incredible wealth requires incredible poverty.
However, the drive for wealth attainment, which is essentially competitiveness for mating resources, spurs innovation. For instance, wars are fought for resources (wealth attainment). Military-derived technology is infused in practically everything we do or own.
Ahh Yes, "locked in the stone age". Check out; http://daflikkers.blogspot.com/
scroll down to sidebar link about 'Oetzi The Iceman'. Some things never change, only the 'Economy of Scale' due to population growth.
You guys are right.