Higher Number of Atlantic Storms Linked to Global Warming
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 07.30.07
In another sign of global warming's growing influence on weather patterns around the world, a team of climate scientists have found that the number of storms in the Atlantic has dramatically increased over the past century. They attribute this upswing — a doubling in the average number of yearly storms since 1905 — to a rise in sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic (0.7°C over the past century).
Greg Holland, a climate scientist of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and one the lead authors on the study with Georgia Institute of Technology's Peter Webster, identified three separate climate regimes in the last century: the first, extending from 1905 to 1930, had an average of 6 storms each year (4 of which were hurricanes); the second, from 1931 to 1994, had a higher average of 10 storms (5 of which were hurricanes); the third, from 1995 to 2005, had a record average of 15 annual storms (8 of which were hurricanes). Holland and his colleagues believe this average number could still rise further within this century.
"These numbers are a strong indication that climate change is a major factor in the increasing number of Atlantic hurricanes," said Holland. "We are of the strong and considered opinion that data errors alone cannot explain the sharp, high-amplitude transitions between the climatic regimes, each with an increase of around 50 percent in cyclone and hurricane numbers, and their close relationship with SSTs."
While the ratio of hurricanes to all Atlantic tropical cyclones has remained mostly unchanged over the last few decades — accounting for close to 55% of all cyclones — the ratio of major hurricanes (with maximum sustained winds of at least 110 mph) to weaker hurricanes and storms has risen significantly in recent years.
Though there remain some prominent detractors, notably Colorado State University's meteorologist William Gray, climate science is slowly but surely moving towards a new consensus in the hurricane-climate debate, with global warming being increasingly blamed for some of the unprecedented weather patterns we've witnessed over the last few years. Greg Holland, a former student of Gray's and once global warming skeptic, has evidently changed his views quite a bit since his graduate days.
Via ::Guardian Unlimited: Big rise in number of Atlantic storms blamed on global warming (blog), ::UCAR: Frequency of Atlantic Hurricanes Doubled Over Last Century; Climate Change Suspected (press release)
See also: ::Recreating a Hurricane in Your Own Backyard, ::Hurricane Damages SOAR to New Levels, ::2006 Hurricane Forecast Exceeds Average
Image courtesy of pingnews via flickr
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Its amazing but we did not have a storm at all last year and if the trend continues this year, no storms again, it is going to shoot a big hole in their math. Take that time frame of 1995-2005 and include 2006 and guess what, the number drops to 7 hurriicanes a year. If 2007 continues like it is we may not have a hurrcane at all and then the numbers are back down to the same numbers we have had for over 100 years. If it were not for one crazy year of hurricanes we would actually have less hurricanse in that region in the last 10 years. Bad Science and bad Math do not convice the world there is a problem with Global Warming. During the dustbowl era of the 1930's if hotter climate were the true source of global warming we would have seen many more storms then they ever list above. All the climatologsts predicted lots of storms for 2006 and none, nada, zero hurricans occured. Why are we looking at them as a source for any facts. They can't even get the job right that they are hired for. I still want facts and not fiction.
meh--- you can say that (bad science and bad math) Foosfan-- but i am willing to bet Holland (who, BTW was a climate skeptic-- student of Bill Grey-- until he tried to disprove earlier claims and then found them to be correct) i bet his math is better than yours. YOUR math, by the way, is mistaking hurricanes for storms. And you obviously aren't taking into account tropical depressions, tropical storms....
Add to that the problem with both your theorum (and Holland's) that you can't really separate hurricanes from cyclones, and your numbers get even more scrambled. You say there were no hurricanes last year (tell that to the people in NC but are you including 2006's 25 pacific hurricanes and p. tropical storms? 23 pacific typhoons? North Indian Ocean cyclones? sure Holland doesn't either, but your dismissal of the GhG/Climate theorum ought to include those.. you cant just say "well we (USA) had it easy last year, so global warming is bunk" i mean, you can, but you'd be wrong!
If hurricanes over the Atlantic are increasing in number, the opposite may be happening in the Pacific. In Asia, the months of June to November are when typhoons come, but there seems to be a dry spell. Reservoirs are now at critically low levels and faucets are already trickling. A friend of mine has commented that it's possible fewer typhoons will form over the Pacific but they may have the combined intensity of many. Is that possible? I'm not sure, but it's troubling.
Here's a link to TheNewsRoom about the shortage of water in the Philippines: http://www.thenewsroom.com/details/529758?c_id=wom-bc-ar
There's plenty more such news on global warming in TheNewsRoom that you can use. You can email jtowns@voxant.com for details. TheNewsRoom will be glad to hear from you.
- Alvin from TheScienceDesk at TheNewsRoom.com