Beijing To Drive One Million Cars Off the Road Next Month
by Alex Pasternack, Beijing, China on 07. 5.07
Beijing will ban one million cars—a third of its autos—for a two-week test of its smog-control measures in August, a year before it hosts the summer Olympics. The most polluted June in seven years--due largely, experts have said, to automobile exhaust and farmers burning crops outside the city--underscored the challenge facing the city ahead of the Games. Already Beijing has banned coal-burning furnaces, relocated power plants outside of downtown and spent billions to move a large steel mill to a man-made island off the shore of northern China's Hebei Province. By June, Beijing had registered three million vehicles, up from 2.88 million last year and only 1.34 million five years ago, a rise that has helped make the country the world's second-largest vehicle market by sales after the U.S.
The 1,000 new cars that hit the streets every day are a sign not only of rising incomes but of the city’s weak public transportation network. As Shai Oster points out in the Wall Street Journal cars here "are crossing the line from a luxury of the rich to a commuting necessity for the middle class.” This isn't the first time Beijing has done this...
The last time the Beijing government did this, during last year’s African summit--by ordering government vehicles off the road and enlisting local car clubs to reduce driving--it only targeted a quarter of a million cars and for just two days.
Car population control is clearly not a sustainable option for improving traffic and cutting pollution, given the growing obsession with the car and the government's stake in the booming auto industry, But for the Olympics, Beijing has little choice. Cars have helped drive levels of nitrogen dioxide in the city over the World Health Organization's clean-air guidelines by at least 78%. By next year’s "Green" Games, Beijing has promised to reduce concentrations of dangerous pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitrous dioxide and ozone to within levels accepted by the WHO, and to keep concentrations of particulate matter, a component of smog, down to levels similar to major cities in developed countries.
This isn’t just a matter of saving face. A recent report by the World Bank and China's State Environmental Protection Agency estimated that approximately 394,000 deaths occurred in 2003 from outdoor air pollution in China. The report said the approximate monetary cost of "excess deaths" from such air pollution was 394 billion yuan, or around $52 billion, assuming the value of a "statistical life" to be one million yuan. Unfortunately—and despite an apparent openness in state-run media regarding environmental problems—the report’s biggest findings were cut under pressure from the Chinese.
Scientists from around China and the world have been enlisted to help reduce other sources of pollution from outside the city, and to study the impact of Beijing's plan to impose tougher fuel and automobile-emission standards next year.
See also coverage on Beijing's "Green" Olympics, the sticky parking situation in the city, the threat of cars in China, and the previous "No Car" Days.
Associated Press via IHT
Well, if they had a better public transportation system, and would stop having tons of babies, then that kind of problem wouldn't exist.
I hope they're commited to being green, and not doing it for show, just for the Olympics.
A decade ago, China was a country entirely on bicycle. It wouldn't be a huge psychological jump for them to get back on them. It just requries some adjustment. They have to be seen as hip and modern, not a relic of the past.
I have a creepy feeling that none of these changes is going to stick once the Olympics have passed through.
They are indeed committed to lowering the birth rate and have some of the strictest population controls in place of any country. Far stricter than in the west I might add.
Also, their public transportation system is lacking but again, same for a lot of western cities. Been to LA lately?
The problem is the massive growth they are experiencing. It's very similar to the West's own industrial revolution (which was quite dirty if you recall). They're now trying to cope with this and not doing a very good job.
quikboy,
Do you know anything of Beijing's public transporation system, or its birth rate, or China's "commitment to green"? Probably not, otherwise you wouldn't have posted such a trite comment.
Beijing's subway is not extensive for a city of its size, and is heavily overutilized. The argument can easily be made that the combination of poor planning and explosive growth have resulted in a subway system that while funtional cannot meet the demands of such a large city. I have heard the Beijing subway experience described to me as literally shoving your way into a mass of humanity while boarding. Then, if you have not been pressed too far away from the doors to reach them at your stop, you shove your way off. So, yes, they need a better mass transit system.
But can we sit here and blame them? Beijing is the center, or one of the centers, of economic growth in China. If we assume that economic activity in Beijing has increased at or near the roughly 8% annual rate that the entire country has, then this is a whole lot of new business and residential traffic to handle. Beijing is also "burdened", though less so than less centrally-planned countries, by an architectural heritage from a less mechanized era with a no less dense population than today. The result is that its communities, streets, and landmarks were built around foot and cart traffic.
In such places, new subway lines can be very expensive to run, though Beijing is attempting to catch up. The size of the system will double in the next few years, and further growth will no doubt follow.
On to your point about population, Beijing's natural birthrate is actually low even by Western standards, though it varies by socioeconomic class. The expansion of the city is because of the massive influx of migrant labor, which is very tightly controlled. The Chinese countryside still contains some 750 million permanent rural residents--many of whom desperately desire to migrate to cities where the industries are primarily located. The government limits the number of labor permits it awards partly in an attempt to control the growth of these cities.
Beijing is growing faster than its public transportation not solely because of poor planning. Instead, it's because the government has succeeded in creating an enormous economic growth rate that it can just barely contain by authoritarian measures. The majority of the Chinese people have yet to partake in this new wealth, and their migration to cities and then to the middle class makes them new car buyers.
And, as far as them being "committed to green", the central government appears to be just that. However, the massive Communist Party hierarchy is not easily controlled, and it is failure of enforcement at local and provincial levels that causes much of the environmental damage we see in China today. Granted, the central government could crack down on this, but doing so may endanger the solid economic growth that country experiences. That, in turn, may jeopardize the stability of the government, and by extension the nation. While that might seem a good thing, turning China into a democracy, with so many people, and so much economic influence on the world, that transition has to be controlled and orderly. The effect on the environment, let alone China's people, would be drastic otherwise.
So, you see though I'm by no means an expert, even I can tell that the issues facing Beijing and its car problem are neither simple nor easy to address. Perhaps an expert might be able to tell if they are addressing them quickly enough, but from my perspective they certainly are making real improvements.
China has a fairly low birth rate of 1.75 children per woman, below baseline for replacement of 2, not including childhood mortalities. For reference, the US has 2.09, and the EU 1.50.
So, they are pretty much on level with the industrialized world, and far below the total world rate of 2.59.
@anthonares:
Ok, your comment seems to be pretty valid, and I would agree with that.
So you're basically saying that China is working hard, and that there's just lots of tough issues that China has to go through, to be more greener.
I would agree with that. That was a pretty good comment, and to me, you sound like an expert.
People follow the Money. The Government messed up by redesigned major cities around auto infrastructure rather then people. WIthout the infrastructure there is no problem. China needs to put a moratorium on Road building and start building transit. Urban form will then follow the investment. Invest in roads you get sprawl and traffic, invest in Transit you get compact communities and walkable neighborhoods.