Why Peak Oil is Like a Cool Beer
by Lloyd Alter, Toronto on 06.14.07
BP is no longer Beyond Petroleum, but firmly back in the camp. Its Statistical Review of World Energy predicts that there are enough proven reserves in the world to last another forty years at current rates, which is a lot longer than most Peak Oil experts have said. Others disagree; according to the Independent:
Scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline, which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives.
According to "peak oil" theory our consumption of oil will catch, then outstrip our discovery of new reserves and we will begin to deplete known reserves. Colin Campbell, the head of the depletion centre, said:
"It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone."
::Independent via ::Environmental Economics
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Depletion rate estimates for oil will vary because second level oil extraction will come into play. This means that as oil fields become depleteted and prices rise substantially, then oil tar sands (Canada), oil shale rock (US) and deep oil will then be considered part of the reserve.
The term "peak oil" is presently being aplied to oil extracted from drilled wells. Future use of this term will probably apply to all forms of recoverable oil.
adrianakau2aol.com
Forty years of oil left. Gas prices have gone up 50% in the past year due to the countdown? If the trend continues , Gold would be a much cheaper fuel to put in your tank. There is time to still drag out that bike from under the porch or out of the basement. Reddit.com showed lots of people doing it, young and old, male and female in Amsterdam .
I think the beer-drinker analogy is incorrect. In this case, it costs the same money / effort / time to take the 1st half of the beer in the glass as the last half.
Look at it like this:
The barman charges standard rate of 10c a sip for the 1st half of the glass, afterwhich the price is doubled for every sip taken after the halfway point (20c, 40c, 80c, $1.60... etc)
Now THAT explains peak oil to a beer drinker!
I can live without oil, but I cannot live without sweet, sweet beer.
I remember the article about shortage of ingredients for beer. Are we talking about peak-beer in the near future?
That would get even the most stubborn climate change denier's attention:)