Honey I Shrunk The Cars: Climate As Style Changer
by John Laumer, Philadelphia on 01.24.07
The time is right to extrapolate from Lloyd's post on Seth Godin's "Small Is The New Big," with climate science denialist walls a-crumbling and Detroit-based car makers fumbling. Subtitle this one The Next Big Thing Has A Shorter Wheel Base. Small cars are about to become fashionable, and not just because CAFE standards may change.
US consumers will want to "do something" about climate change, to visibly redeem themselves. They are absolutely going to buy great looking small cars and flaunt them the way many people flaunt SUV’s as symbols of power and wealth. That's the zone where marketing does its magic. The result will be demand growth for smaller cars and trucks. The politics are interesting too. By taking personal responsibility for climate, consumers can show that government need not mandate re-designs.
This conjecture seems oddly reminiscent of 1983; the year Chrysler's Lee Iacocca first brought the minivan to the US. If you had been globetrotting years before that date, you'd indeed have seen relatively small minivans. In their Infinite Wisdom Detroit "knew," until 1983, that Americans didn't want minivans. Within a year of Chrysler's introduction, there were US mini-van model designs galore, scaled up to meet the appetite for "big". Rinse and repeat with the Jeep, and SUVs become the "next big, big thing"
Twenty some years later, conventional wisdom is that Americans won't buy small cars in large numbers because they're too dangerous or just not befitting 'the American lifestyle,' (which presumes to be primarily suburban or rural in character). But change is afoot. We think, a combination of energy sercurity awareness and climate guilt now favor small car purchases, starting in America's cities, where trailer pulling and four wheel drive are largely unnecessary. College graduates will be wanting what for their first new car: an SUV? Doubt it.
Déjà vue, the late 70's, when Japanese makers unexpectedly won over large numbers of US consumers with attractive, smaller, high quality, cars. Detroit had to race to offer comparable models. Their first response? Buy time with lobbyists, sent to Washington to push for an import car tax.
Our supposed blossoming of 'conspicuous conservation' in transportation, a large scale trend foreshadowed by broad popularity of the Prius, will allow TV pundits to ask: "Who'd have thought that US citizens would be driving cars that look European?" Like the 67 HP Peugeot 107, the "City Car" pictured above. Perhaps the more important question is, will Detroit be ready?
Style is the focus of this post. But, if we could be permitted one technical footnote it would be this. For decades, North Americans have responded to more horsepower piled on year after year. We surely liked it; but, we don't need it. A hundred HP is more than enough for even a mid-size car. In victory over energy tyrants, and over the climate tyrany produced by our own excess, small is the next big thing.
Aside: we looked for a photo of a handsome male stylishly posed by small car but could find none. Nominations welcomed.
Image credit: Pugeot.
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Small-car culture has been percolating for years. First in Europe, with the Mini clubs, and later in the US, in urban areas, where first-time-owner Latino kids would tweak and tune small imports. Often these cultures were built around more urban car ownership (never a great idea) and racing (which meant more fuel consumption, not less) but it has made small cars cool and acceptable to young people. They now overwhelmingly prefer agile Ford Focuses and Mitsubishi Lancers to fat, clumsy Corvettes.
I don't think size is really the issue here. The dimensions of the car are not as important as the weight and fuel source.
In Europe we have small cars because fuel is expensive and the roads are narrower than in the US. Cars like the Peugeot 107 and Mercedes SMART are ideal because they don't take up much space and are easy to drive and park in small city streets. In the US there isn't that need.
I think there is room for a new type of car which is ethical but still spacious and comfortable. A car designed specifically for the US market rather than an import which is created for the lifestyle of a different country.
This also needs to be supported by publicity showing that non-fossil fueled cars can have high performance to help reduce the stigma attached to electric cars. Tesla and Venturi are both developing electric sports cars which could help to make low carbon fuels a more aspirational concept.
My research and math seem to indicate that (at least the Citroen version of this) gets 44MPG for the Deisel. Since that's what my VW Jetta TDI gets, I'm not impressed. The VW Jetta is available in the US and Canada and still has a very nice sized trunk.
I'd like to echo that size isn't necessarily linked to mileage.
I drive a 1995 mazda miata, 1.8 liter engine, 2400lbs and due to gearing, aerodynamics, and a generally uninspiring engine, I never get over 27mpg. On the highway, doing 75mph I only get 23mpg.
I have a 2003 Accord 4cl. Driving from Boston to DC with a bit of traffic through NYC and averaging 75mph I got about 34mpg.
The Accord is now a mid-sized car with reasonable power.
=== author's response =====
The mysteries of mileage can be easily overcome with basic physics. Calculate your horsepower to weight ratio: the correlations will be amazingly good with mileage, within a single vehicle category. Sure, there are breakthrough engine designs and so on, but basically it comes down to HP and weight. An especially light car with relatively high HP/wt ratio will be the winner.