Last Ice Cube Floating
by John Laumer, Philadelphia on 10.12.06
You’d set your ice-cold lemonade on the picnic table and now, on returning, you see only a few floating bits of ice left. Not to worry, the lemonade is still cool, and more ice cubes are on hand. That’s been the attitude of climate change “denialists” up until now, claiming some glaciers are growing while others are visibly melting away. The Guardian of October 11, 2006 has reviewed a recently published glacial mass balance study performed by actual glaciologists (instead of Think Tank ‘experts’); and, it now looks as if the ‘denialists’ have lost another tool for public delusion. From the Guardian: - “The world's glaciers and ice caps are now in terminal decline because of global warming, scientists have discovered. A survey has revealed that the rate of melting across the world has sharply accelerated in recent years, (‘99.99% of all glaciers are shrinking’) placing even previously stable glaciers in jeopardy. The loss of glaciers in South America and Asia will threaten the water supplies of millions of people within a few decades, the experts warn”. Note: non-members of AGU may purchase the full research publication for $9.00.
Unless there has really been a monumental change since 2004, then 99.99% is a significant exageration.
From 1970 to 2004, 83% of glaciers decreased in size. The worst single year was 2003, during which 96% loss mass.
Map of glacial changes
Global trend in glacial changes
==== author's reponse follows ====
I suspect that the critical difference comes from the number of glacial inventories "sampled", This was a "mass balance" trend study, and refers to percent of glaciers trending toward the "melt" condition over long periods of time. Having not read the entire peer reviewed article myself, I'll wait until the folks at Real Climate offer some insight before pursuing.
They are looking at much of the same data I've looked at, and the 99.99% figure is no where in the paper. (Which shouldn't be surprising since we don't really have good measurement histories on 10000 glaciers anyway.) Assumming the quote in the news story is accurate, I believe the author was just exagerrating for effect.
The accelerating declines in 80+% of glaciers is still a significant concern, however.