A Community Response to Peak Oil
by Treehugger Interns on 09. 9.06
Last week we reported on the greening of Chew Magna, now it looks like another small English community is mobilising for a more sustainable future, this time motivated by the threat/opportunity of peak oil. Peak oil, the idea that oil production will peak and thereafter begin an inexorable decline, is a controversial subject. Whilst nobody doubts that it will happen, there is a huge amount of debate as to when it will happen, and as to what the consequences will be. Treehugger has previously reported on the subject here, here and here, and we’ve posted the Grist interview with ex-US government energy advisor Mathew Simmons here. But what can ordinary citizens do to prepare for the peak?
Local groups, such as the Portland Peak Oil Group, are beginning to spring up around the world, educating the public on the issues, and exploring community responses to energy descent. One of the latest groups to emerge in the UK is Transition Town Totnes, based in the Southwest town of Totnes, in Devon. The group aims to develop “an Energy Descent Action Plan for Totnes, designing a positive way down from the oil peak… It will strive to be inclusive, imaginative, practical and fun.”
One of the key players behind this group is permaculture teacher and peak oil activist Rob Hopkins, creator of the Transition Culture website. Rob has already worked with the community of Kinsale in Ireland to develop a similar vision for a prosperous, post-peak community (the resulting report can be downloaded here). Whilst many in the peak oil community tend towards doom mongering (or "disasterbation", as I once heard it called), Rob Hopkins is intent on building positive, workable community solutions to create a post-oil society, as can be seen in his excellent essay "Why the Survivalists Have Got it Wrong”. Whether you believe the peak is imminent, has already past, or is still some way off, given the already pressing challenge of climate change, most of what Rob advocates just makes good, old-fashioned, tree-hugging sense. [Written by: Sami Grover]
I think I'll miss space exploration the most ;) (face it, it's tightly tied to the military-industrial complex, which will be straggling...and all that energy to lift free of the gravity well will doubtlessly be argued to be used for feeding hordes of the hungry, fuel agricultural machinery, etc). We'll lose a lot more, but space is pretty key.
Sorry, but that comment doesn't make that much sense.
First off, it's like saying 'I'll miss driving a car: face it, driving a car is tightly coupled with oil'. Sure it is - right now. But it doesn't have to be, because if you dig more, you'll see that first cars were electric anyways, and eventually they will all be. Think outside the box. Eventually, even the space vehicles will use some other form of fuel
2) Even if the oil peak was over, if we can convert the biggest poluters (all the cars), then we could always reserve oil derived products for such things as space explorations...one shuttle launch here and there pollutes far less then all the cars in north america every day.
But yeah, eventually we'll replace even that technology.
So your comment about space exploration dissapearing is way off - no offense.
I know I'm further dragging us off topic, but I miss space exploration NOW. Remember when we were all looking forward to lunar colonization and Mars Bases by 2010?
regards-
Armand
Glad you have your opinion that my opinion is way off. They are just that, opinions.
(I like the "way off...no offense", when you're obviously implying offense...what you meant was "in my eyes it's way off...").
You partially caught my mention of the fact I was talking about energy (and not oil) for getting out of the gravity well. I also admire your conviction that the human race will find alternative fuels to power rockets, despite the fact the infrastructure to support all the scientists and engineers will be set back quite far (if, as some of the doomers would say, the infrastructure even exists at all). The beauty of huge societies is that by the division of labour, your scientists and rocket technicians aren't out in a field picking crops with other people. It isn't just the problem of fuels (though that'd be a biggie...and remember, energy in fuel can be spent in other ways than a rocket...NASA has a hard time getting budgets now; imagine in times of real strife...most people would argue against burning that up to launch a can into the sky)
If society "powers down" nicely, I think there'll be many more pressing issues than space (like just feeding all the people who were born under an oil economy...mass fertilizer shortages, food shortages, power shortages, etc). If it powers down messily, stars will just be little fires in the sky, denied to us for a long, long time.
It's easy to use these large amounts of energy when there's plenty to spare. But the energy requirements of getting out of Earth's gravity well are (as you know) pretty fundamental ;) , and when a large source of our energy (and what keeps society running so it can produce that energy, move it's scientists about, feed them, etc) is gone, it's becomes harder to spare. It's not so much a magic bullet of finding another fuel; it's society calling on the use of what energy/resources it has left. Maybe nations in the future, crippled by oil inflation and shortages will still forge ahead with an ambitious space program, but I suspect not (at least not most democratic ones!). Hopefully this doesn't happen (maybe our society will continue coming up with more and more energy...fusion power, mass solar in space, bubble cities and little hovercycles making Jetsons noises [I'm getting sarcastic here, as you can sense ;) ], etc)....but I suspect it will happen; as prices for energy go up, number of space flights will go down. If prices spike way up, flights will spike way down (unless people elect to give space a much bigger cut of the resource pie to make up for the heightened costs).
Hehe, I know what you mean Armand! I miss it too. I wish that people were aiming to get a foothold in space. To me, trying real hard to get a couple people to Mars is a waste. First, build a good orbital dockyard, to get a foot out of the gravity well (again, because it's so expensive to do so). Get industry dug in on the Moon, for materials (much easier gravity well to get out of; if if you're not getting all your material from the Moon, it'll help vs Earth launches). And only then start thinking about Mars.
Hawking had a good speech (long overdue) on how humanity has all it's eggs in one basket, vulnerable to a number of things. He didn't (as I recall) mention peak oil as one of the threats, but if it inhibits our ability to spread to space, it's as big a danger as the others to me.
Anyway, apologies for giving this thread a huge space tone :) . But then, I think it's an interesting slant for discussion on peak oil to take :)
folks... the space shuttle doesn't run on petroleum: http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/newton/askasci/1995/environ/ENV165.HTM
Hi. Just a quick hit and run comment from land of energy excess (The U.S.). While I applaud a constructive and forward-thinking dialog on what appears to be an almost certain energy catastrophe, I just want to throw in a thoughtful barb at those who imagine that a large drop in worldwide oil supply might be a GOOD thing. Even if large scale climate change is proven to be human caused (I'm not yet convinced), can any sane person long for a return to pre-industrial conditions? I recently watched a history special about what the mini ice age did to human populations during the pre-industrial middle ages. There was mass privation, disease, and misery. Sure, we can live without some of the luxury, waste, and excess of the industrial age, but let us put this in perspective: if we do not have abundant energy, human populations will not be able to properly feed, cloth, or protect themselves from the elements. If that day comes I can predict that a whole lot of tree hungers will quickly will become tree cutters and burners, and will skin and eat the first and last polar bears unlucky enough to get within the grasp of their cold starving fingers! If it comes to that they will all WISH for global warming and curse the day that the oil began to run dry.