Grain-Based Ethanol Risk Hinges On Supply Projections
by John Laumer, Philadelphia on 06.16.06
The Earth Policy Institute reports that “This year’s world grain harvest is projected to fall short of consumption by 61 million tons, marking the sixth time in the last seven years that production has failed to satisfy demand. As a result of these shortfalls, world carryover stocks at the end of this crop year are projected to drop to 57 days of consumption, the shortest buffer since the 56-day-low in 1972 that triggered a doubling of grain prices”…”The newest, potentially huge claimant on world grain supplies, the use of grain to produce fuel ethanol, is concentrated in the United States where a projected 55 million tons, or one fifth of the projected 268-million-ton corn harvest for 2006, will be used for this purpose”.
Just as world demand growth is the driving factor for US gasoline price increases, a burgeoning world demand for food grain is showing signs of compromising the ability of the US to supply itself with cheap grain-based ethanol. Specifically, if the 1972-scenario is replayed, and lasts for several years (we're not giving any odds), the US has only one good risk management choice: rapidly accelerate the changeover to switch grass as ethanol feedstock. How critical is the need? Stir in a few hurricane clogged ports and drought parched prairies, and significant ethanol price increases could result. Which would translate to an eroded price advantage for E85 (the preferred blend for flex fuel vehicles)
Positive consequences? Perhaps the Smithsonian will set up a last-of-the-gas-guzzlers exhibit . Good for tourism in the Capital. Grain traders are sure to come out on top. As for the farmers, only those with good yields will benefit, unfortunately. Corn suger laced process foods will go up in price, adding an impetus to switch to a better diet. Soil erosion will be reduced if corn acres are planted to prairie grass on a large scale. Pesticide use will go down as well.
... or we could not use ethanol as a fuel source. whether or not there is a net eroi for ethanol(switchgrass or otherwise) lester brown argues in this epi report and plan B that because of water issues grain production is declining around the world. so we have an option: you can drive you vw biofuel beetle(or whatever) or some kid in india can starve.
the era of on-demand personal transportation is quickly ending; we shouldn't use up the last of our soil and ground water in some mad effort to hold off the inevitable.
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Excellent points...but one caveat. Native tall grass prairie in the US is extremely productive and more drought resistant than woody plants. So the ecotone should determine crops as much as industrial economics.
and the solutions are easy: switch transportation over to a "light" public model that runs on electricity produced from renewable sources(grains are not renewable, we've depleted the natural health of our soils and grain production is only possible through massive inputs of petrochemicals, in many places water for grain agriculture is pumped out of fossil aquifers, which are inherently nonrenewable, the run-off from grain farms is also obviously not renewable)
a solution to the grain problem is Tree Crops. trees(and other woody perenneals) are the only "permanent agriculture" a long time ago J. Russell Smith wrote a great book on Tree Crops and recently Robert Hart and more recently Mollison and his "permaculture" gang have really been pushing some of these ideas. Agroforestry must replace grains b/c our 10,000 year experiment is about to go bust.