Perfect Gasoline Storm
by John Laumer, Philadelphia on 04.11.06
A perfect storm is brewing that could drive US gasoline prices up radically and keep them that way for the long term. Clarification: there's an equally plausible scenario in which gasoline prices spike this summer, in the usual fashion, and then drop before winter, continuing the average up slope we've seen over the last 5 years. Let's go with the first and more radical scenario, though, and refer to it as the "perfect gasoline storm" (PGS). Short term (1-year) PGS plausibility hangs on several overlapping and well-understood future drivers: a 2006 hurricane season with frequent and intense storms; continued slow expansion of refining capacity; continued 2%+ annual growth in US demand; political instability in oil producing nations; decreased ability of US Federal and state governments to significantly influence fuel supplies though national policy; and, inability of domestic ethanol production to meet oxygenate demand as ethanol increasingly becomes the MTBE substitute of choice. Other, less anticipated, drivers loom as well.
European refineries which focus on diesel and export gasoline to the US have practical and political limits. A hurricane strike on major US port(s) would further limit the potential for emergency imports to alleviate shortages.
It is not possible to turn enough of the fleet over to hybrids and ultra efficient small cars to make difference in the short term toward lowering the national gasoline consumption rate.
There is always a chance of explosion at one or more major refineries, unrelated to storms or terrorism.
Much of what we promote on TreeHugger will be relegated to "background noise" if gasoline prices toss into the air the assumed constants of American life-style. However, several positive outcomes are likely.
- All locally produced goods, and especially food, will become increasingly cost competitive.
- Bicycle sales and related services will skyrocket.
- Motor cycle and scooter use will become more common during the warm months.
- Developers will gravitate to the higher density "live/work/play" planned community models.
- Traffic congestion will be mitigated as carpooling and errand sharing become more commonplace.
- Cynicism toward alternative designs and life styles will be reduced.
I bought my first motorcycle last summer when gast hit $2.50/gal. It gets over 50mpg on the highway, and can take most common sports cars in a drag race -- all for less than $5000. Also, with a set of saddlebags, it can carry the same amount of cargo as I used to carry most-days in my Ford Ranger.
I still have the Ranger for tasks that are best suited to a bigger vehicle, but it's not uncommon for it to sit all week while I commute on the motorcycle.
If I were to purchase a bike for efficiency rather than rideability, I could probably get as high as 75mpg without doing anything special.
As gas prices increase, the alternatives will make more sense, event to the skeptics. I used to be one of those skeptics - until $$$ started to change the balance -- and I suddenly looked at what my hippie parents are doing with a new eye.
Yes all those things will happen and peoples vehicle buying should change as well. Anything that kills off SUV buying is a good thing.
The things listed there will have to happen for things to become sustainable. I hope that these things also spur government and industry to do the reseach to give us many energy saving vehicles and appliances.
Another thought I had about this. Sustained higher fuel costs will reduce excess spending by consumers as prices rise and discretionary income shrinks. Fewer trucks will be on the road transporting goods as well. The economy will tank for a while until things adjust to the new reality. A big bucket of water on the fire that is our crazy consumerism.
"I bought my first motorcycle last summer when gast hit $2.50/gal. It gets over 50mpg on the highway, and can take most common sports cars in a drag race -- all for less than $5000. Also, with a set of saddlebags, it can carry the same amount of cargo as I used to carry most-days in my Ford Ranger."
Firstly, no, saddlebags != a FORD RANGER PICKUP.
Secondly, who cares how much you can "take" other cars? What are you, 12?
50 mpg is good, but unless you live somewhere sunny all year, you still have to go right back to the Ranger. And, you're now out 5000 bucks. How long will THAT take to pay back in gas?
Although I am excited about the positive changes that may happen as a result of high gas prices, I am also very concerned about people with limited means.
As locally produced foods become more cost-competitive it does not follow that populations of people will be able to access food from these or other sources. Instead, it may be increasingy difficult to meet food and other needs due to overall increases in cost of living without increases in income.
In addition, the local food shelf benefits from the overproduction of food and the ability to transfer it relatively long distances at a cheap cost.
At the same time, the availability of public transit, bike lanes, and other lower cost and less consumptive transportation would benefit a more complete spectrum of our community.
I am concerned that the people celebrating more local economies and a less oil-dependent economy will not acknowledge and help the whole community transition to the new reality. I am afraid of following same patterns of injustice during this important time of transition.
Ryan, I understand your concern about those with limited means. Our society as it is works more on survival of the fittest, it needs to change but that also won't happen overnight. Perhaps as people end up living closer togeather it'll be harder for others to turn a blind eye for those in need. I'd hate to think many people think like one conservative guy at work does, he says "Not everybody's supposed to survive". That would make a sad world indeed.
motorcycles can get most people to work, cut down on traffic and save a lot on therapy. Look at how many cars are beside you at the light have only one person in it.
Monk
Two other reasons that higher gas prices are good:
1)It makes any alternative energy stock go up and I have some of those in my portfolio.
2)It sends the signal loud and clear 'we are NOT in control' of our financial future because of our dependance on oil. The higher the price the louder the signal.
Two reasons high prices are bad:
1)Higher prices trigger calls for going after oil in the last untouched places we've got. The higher the price, the more likely it is that ANWR will fall to the oil developers. I unfortunately feel that this is inevitable, and it makes me sick.
2)Higher prices trigger calls to reduce the 'tax burden' on the developers and producers of oil, so we give them even more federal money to encourage production. This is exactly what happened in the last energy bill. It also triggers legislation to reduce the environmental constraints, because these contraints add 'expense' to the production equation.
I guarantee you, if gas prices get really high, most of the US population will not care where we're drilling or what we pollute.
"motorcycles can get most people to work, cut down on traffic and save a lot on therapy."
And increase your chances of being killed 32-fold.
"And increase your chances of being killed 32-fold."
Thanks for the love, Joe.
Most people still get killed in or by 4-wheeled things.
"Thanks for the love, Joe."
Facts are facts. I drove a bike for years. They're dangerous -- you're the thing that gets hit first, not the machine. There are certain advantages (eg, maneuverability and speed), but statistics tell the story about the overall balance.
"Most people still get killed in or by 4-wheeled things."
Because the overwhleming number of vehicles on the road are 4-wheeled things.
Assuming we are in a PGS, local (but small scale) production of food and goods won't just become a more viable option- it will be the only option.
So, Joe, you got those crash statistics handy? I'd like to see them.
==== author's response follows ====
This thread is following another of the predetermined outcomes of PGS: e.g. fatalities and injuries will go up with increased use of smaller cars, bicycles, motorcycles/scooters, and sidewalks. In response, speed limits will go down overall, and horsepower to follow, after which bicycle and scooter safe lanes and zones will be established, etc.
And as larger vehicles (SUV's)driven by unskilled drivers dissappear from the road greater vehicle parity will reduce road deaths. It'll be like the early 80's with all kinds of cool hatches etc. but with better quality I hope.