Jim Kunstler's predictions for 2006: Stay in Bed.
by Lloyd Alter, Toronto on 01. 2.06
We just want to go stick our head in our natural gas oven after reading this; if you thought the Long Emergency was dire, read what Kunstler calls for in the short term- $ 4 dollar gas, housing market collapse, massive unemployment, the Dow at 4,000, hyperinflation, chaos in China. He does go on, but it is worth reading. ::Clusterf*ck Nation
...High gasoline, heating oil, and methane gas prices will absolutely kill the housing bubble for reasons I've already outlined. The production home builders will be idle, stuck with huge inventories in places that never should have been suburbanized in the first place. A lot of Americans holding "creative" mortgages -- no money down, interest only, adjustable rate, what-have-you -- will be crushed by the expense of their obligations. Many of them will go bankrupt under new bankruptcy laws that leave no wiggle room for escaping partial repayment. Their houses will flood the real estate markets in an orgy of distress selling. "Greater fools" will snap up these "bargains," failing to realize that many of the logistical liabilities will remain -- namely remote locations and huge heating costs of enormous McHouses -- even if the ownership terms are less hazardous than the previous owner's. At some point in the future, after several flippings perhaps, all those 4000 square foot houses 44 miles outside Denver (or Cleveland, or Seattle) will be seen as the mistakes that they are, and their cash value will reflect that.
With the cratering of the housing bubble, the US economy has to fall on its ass. The global economy is likely to fall on its ass, too, since so much of it depends on the decisions of Americans to take out exotic loans for buying houses they can't afford. Large numbers of jobs will vanish in construction, remodeling, real estate sales, and the various mortgage rackets -- those things precisely related to the recent gains in GDP.
He reminds me of this guy I know.
He's about 70 years old, smells a little weird, has three teeth, and stands on the corner downtown shouting "The end is nigh! Repent sinners!" Come to think of it, he wears a bowtie, too.
I take his arguments as equally valid because, honestly, what is there to do? We'll either die or we'll pull something amazing off. I'm banking on the amazing thing.
But that doesn't mean I didn't choose to live in a townhome near work and the farmer's market in the middle of Amish country.
That sounds like a bright future. Hope he is wrong for the sake of civilization.
Well I see a bright future in mass built Off-Grid/Net-Zero-Energy homes (or as near as can be). :D
I'm glad i didn't invite him to the new years party. What a buzz killer!
With all his focus on negativity he sure could use a hug.
Lets face it. some of these predictions are sure to happen to some extent. things cannot go up..up ..up.. for ever.(ex: housing market)-- is it doesn't come crashing down, it will most certainly flatten out in many places. energy prices are already rising sharply, and CHINA...well let's just wait and see how many changes an enormous population like china will bring to this new century. I remember an old joke from the 60's about China (during the vietnam war era). It went "did you hear about the new weapon the chinese have developed? All the Chinese spit into the Pacific Ocean, and a giant "Tidal Wave" wipes out the western half of the U.S."
I think most of this is wishful thinking on his behalf. Then, his way of thinking will be vindicated. I don't discount that some of what he says could happen but it is far more likely that we may see a far more subdued version of some of these predictions coming to fruition. He seems to discount the fact that a lot of people (including corporations that see huge potential to profit from solutions to these scenarios) are working on these issues. Never underestimate the power of market forces.
After reading his biography on his webpage, I discovered that he was a THEATER major in college. All he's doing is getting people worked up in his drama. His ability to predict future events and price spikes lacks professional credibility. Maybe if he had a PHD in Economics or had worked in the oil industry as a supply chain manager I would take him seriously. Even then, NO ONE can predict the future. Everyone is worth listening to, but don't buy into Jim Kunstler's fortune telling.
Well, the way he puts things it sounds bad, but should they come to happen, there would be some GOOD from it. Smaller, more efficient homes closer to the workplaces. People getting sensible about their debt load. Sometimes it takes a big bad event to finally make people change what they do.
well jeeeezlouise!
i am shocked by how easily dissed kunstler is here in THland--- personally too i am hoping that we pull through in a miraculopus way. but to dismiss the guy because of what he studied in 1971 as opposed to the guys 30+ years as a reporter is INSANE. to compare him to the crazy smelly guy on your streetcorner is eqully mad. Sure y'all might not wanna hang in a hot tub with the guy, but i think it would be equally nuts to dismiss him in a flippant way without reading his material.
Sure he may not be in the service industry (oh, like people listened to Marrion King Hibbert much) but a reporter with that much invested has something to say and has obviously managed to gather some info along the way....
is Newsday smelly and crazy? what about metropolis mag? do you rather get your info from The Economist (they are the ones who as recently as 1995 said "don't worry about this global warming, it only affects 3% of the american economy")??
Buffers are lame. if you don't wanna hear something it is always easier to dismiss it without having to think about it too hard...
aint going to make it go away... ask an ostrich
you dont need a (faux) weatherman to know which way the wind blows....
number9plastic,
I'm not dismissing peak oil or global warming. There's no denying that. I'm dismissing Kunster's apocalyptic view of the world and future in general. From reading his articles, he seems to have a very bleak and bitter view of the world.
I won't accept his hopeless and pessimistic view of the future. All this talk of the collapse of this and the failure of that, is unhealthy negativity. People will just adapt and change like they always have done. I remain optimistic that people will ultimately overcome an energy crisis with things like cellulosic ethanol, coal-to-liquids, other alternative energy sources, and by changing lifestyles. There are so many people and companies working on sustainable resources. It's a slap in the face to them to just say that the world is going to hell in a handbasket and there's nothing you can do about it. If we do buy into his philosophy, what are we supposed to do? Hide under a rock?
LA: stay in bed.