The Climate Clock and Copenhagen

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:55:11 GMT

Bonfire Image credit:Wikipedia For those concerned about global warming, all eyes are on December's U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The stakes could not be higher. Almost every new report shows that the climate is changing even faster than the most dire projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their 2007 report. Yet from my vantage point at Earth Policy Institute, internationally negotiated climate agreements are fast becoming obsolete for two reasons. First, since no government wants to concede too much compared with other governments, the negotiated goals for cutting carbon emissions will almost certainly be minimalist, not remotely approaching the bold cuts that are needed. ... Read the full story on TreeHugger

The Brazilian Connection - Are You In?

Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:51:09 GMT

Map of Brazil. Image credit:Lonely Planet Last week I was in Sao Paulo, Brazil, launching the Portuguese edition of Plan B 4.0, published by Virtu Editora e Productora Ltda. But Plan B is not just a book in Brazil. It is a plan of action. In August, Plan B was the focus of the 2020 Climate Campaign, an initiative of the State of the World Forum, which was held in Belo Horizonte in the state of Minas Gerais. Two of us from Earth Policy Institute were present: Janet Larsen our Director of Research and me.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

US Headed For Massive Decline In Carbon Emissions: 9 Percent Drop In Last Two Years

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:02:40 GMT

Carbon Peak Image credit:Natalee Parochka, Fine Art America For years now, many members of Congress have insisted that cutting carbon emissions was difficult, if not impossible. It is not. During the two years since 2007, carbon emissions have dropped 9 percent. While part of this drop is from the recession, part of it is also from efficiency gains and from replacing coal with natural gas, wind, solar, and geothermal energy. At the Earth Policy Institute, we believe that the United States has ended a century of rising carbon emissions and has now entered a new energy era, one of declining emissions. Peak carbon is now history. What had appeared to be hopelessly difficult is happening at amazing speed. (Read our full report.)... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 09:55:20 GMT

Breaking bread. Image credit: Jonzu in Seattle In my new book, Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, which we at Earth Policy Institute just launched today, I note that in early 2008, Saudi Arabia announced that, after being self-sufficient in wheat for over 20 years, the non-replenishable aquifer it had been pumping for irrigation was largely depleted. In response, officials said they would reduce their wheat harvest by one eighth each year until production would cease entirely in 2016. The Saudis then plan to use their oil wealth to import virtually all the grain consumed by their Canada-sized population of nearly 30 million people. The Saudis are unique in being so wholly dependent on irrigation. But other, far larger, grain producers such as India and China are facing irrigation water losses and could face grain production declines.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Rethinking Food Production For A World Of Eight Billion

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 12:04:33 GMT

Heracles in the Olymp taking fruit from the Cornucopia. Image credit:MLHanas.de In April 2005, the World Food Programme and the Chinese government jointly announced that food aid shipments to China would stop at the end of the year. For a country where a generation ago hundreds of millions of people were chronically hungry, this was a landmark achievement. Not only has China ended its dependence on food aid, but almost overnight it has become the world's third largest food aid donor.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Learning From Past Civilizations

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 13:40:57 GMT

Sumerian Ziggurat. Image credit:Wayfaring travel guide. At Earth Policy Institute, we've been looking to at earlier civilizations to understand our current environmental dilemma. We have found that our early twenty-first century civilization is not the first to face the prospect of environmentally induced economic decline. The question is how we will respond. As Jared Diamond points out in his book "Collapse," some of the early societies that were in environmental trouble were able to change their ways in time to avoid decline and collapse. Six centuries ago, for example, Icelanders realized that overgrazing on their grass-covered highlands was leading to extensive soil loss from the inherently thin soils of the region. Rather than lose the grasslands and face economic decline, farmers joined together to determine how many sheep the highlands could sustain and then allocated quotas among themselves, thus preserving their grasslands. Their wool production and woolen goods industry continue to thrive today. ... Read the full story on TreeHugger

The Oil Intensity Of Food

Fri, 31 Jul 2009 12:52:37 GMT

Diesel crop irrigation pump. Image credit:BEI International Today we are an oil-based civilization, one that is totally dependent on a resource whose production will soon be falling. Since 1981, the quantity of oil extracted has exceeded new discoveries by an ever-widening margin. In 2008, the world pumped 31 billion barrels of oil but discovered fewer than 9 billion barrels of new oil. World reserves of conventional oil are in a free fall, dropping every year.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

A Warming World Means More Destructive Storms

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 07:17:01 GMT

Hurricane Katrina's eyewall taken by a NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter pilot on Aug. 28, 2005, a day before the powerful storm came barreling into the USA Gulf Coast. Image credit:NOAA. Elevated global temperatures bring a number of threats, including rising seas and more crop-withering heat waves. Higher surface water temperatures in the tropical oceans also provide more energy to drive tropical storm systems, leading to more-destructive hurricanes and typhoons. As I note in Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, the combination of rising seas, more powerful storms, and stronger storm surges can be devastating.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Melting Ice Could Lead to Massive Waves of Climate Refugees

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:35:03 GMT

Wave. Image credit:Science Blogs, making waves. As the earth warms, the melting of the earth's two massive ice sheets-Antarctica and Greenland-could raise sea level enormously. If the Greenland ice sheet were to melt, it would raise sea level 7 meters (23 feet). Melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level 5 meters (16 feet). But as I note in Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, even just partial melting of these ice sheets will have a dramatic effect on sea level rise. Senior scientists are noting that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level rise during this century of 18 to 59 centimeters are already obsolete and that a rise of 2 meters during this time is within range.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

"Plan B" - Efficiency and Conservation Measures Can Drop Energy Demand By 2020

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:45:46 GMT

"Better Economy, Better Energy, Better Planet". Image and tag credit:World Changing. Projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show global energy demand growing by close to 30 percent by 2020, setting the stage for massive growth in the carbon dioxide emissions that are warming our planet. But as I note in Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, dramatically ramping up energy efficiency would allow the world to not only avoid growth in energy demand but actually reduce global demand to below 2006 levels by 2020.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Needed: Copernican Shift Toward A Global Eco-Economy

Thu, 21 May 2009 09:36:51 GMT

Copernicus. Image credit:NASA In 1543, Polish astronomer Nicolaus Copernicus published "On the Revolutions of the Celestial Spheres," in which he challenged the view that the sun revolved around the earth, arguing instead that the earth revolved around the sun. With his new model of the solar system, he began a wide-ranging debate among scientists, theologians, and others. His alternative to the earlier Ptolemaic model, which had the earth at the center of the universe, led to a revolution in thinking, to a new worldview.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Protecting And Restoring Forests To Save Civilization

Wed, 06 May 2009 07:37:20 GMT

Historic paper making process - the pulp "beater". Image credit: Saint-Armand As I have written in Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, protecting the earth's nearly 4 billion hectares of remaining forests and replanting those already lost are both essential for restoring the earth's health, an important foundation for the new economy. Reducing rainfall runoff and the associated flooding and soil erosion, recycling rainfall inland, and restoring aquifer recharge depend on simultaneously reducing pressure on forests and on reforestation.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 11:10:36 GMT

an empty plate is a sad plate. Image credit:flickr,Masala Cha's photostream, excerpted. In the May issue of Scientific American I discuss how food shortages could be the weak link that brings down civilization. For many years at Earth Policy Institute and before I have studied global agricultural, population, environmental, and economic trends and their interactions. Although I long resisted the idea that food shortages could bring down not only individual governments but also our global civilization, I can no longer ignore that risk. ... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Shrinking Forests: The Many Costs

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 10:58:16 GMT

Paul Bunyan, legendary North American clear-cut logger. Image credit: King of the Road Music In early December 2004, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo "ordered the military and police to crack down on illegal logging, after flash floods and landslides, triggered by rampant deforestation, killed nearly 340 people," according to news reports. As I have written in Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, 15 years earlier, in 1989, the government of Thailand announced a nationwide ban on tree cutting following severe flooding and the heavy loss of life in landslides. And in August 1998, following several weeks of record flooding in the Yangtze River basin and a staggering $30 billion worth of damage, the Chinese government banned all tree cutting in the upper reaches of the basin. Each of these governments had belatedly learned a costly lesson, namely that services provided by forests, such as flood control, may be far more valuable to society than the lumber in those forests.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Closing The Door On Building New Coal-Fired Power Plants In America

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 14:30:23 GMT

Xcel Energy fires up new natural gas-fired High Bridge plant near St. Paul, replacing older coal-fired unit. Image credit:Minnesota Public Radio Recently Jonathan G. Dorn, my colleague at Earth Policy Institute, released a report on how community opposition, legal challenges, and financial uncertainty over future carbon costs are prompting companies to rethink their plans for coal.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Slide Show For Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing To Save Civilization

Wed, 01 Apr 2009 11:01:47 GMT

For those of you who would like to get Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization in summary, my colleagues at Earth Policy Institute have put together a PowerPoint slide show. It quickly reviews the book's key concepts using data, facts, and figures, including the Plan B blueprint for reducing net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions 80 percent by 2020 to stabilize climate. ... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Better Health For All: Critical To Reduce Population Growth & Poverty

Wed, 25 Mar 2009 16:43:25 GMT

Rural Ugandan children fetch contaminated drinking water. Image credit:The Water School Ensuring basic health care for people in low-income countries is critical to the Plan B goal of eradicating poverty and stabilizing population.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Public Health Challenges Growing, World Wide

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 11:36:51 GMT

Blood engorged mosquito. Image credit:Healthline Health challenges are becoming more numerous as new infectious diseases such as SARS, West Nile virus, and avian flu emerge. In addition, the accumulation of chemical pollutants in the environment is starting to take a toll. While infectious diseases are fairly well understood, the health effects of many environmental pollutants are not yet known. Malaria has an economic impact. As I note in a recent report, among the leading infectious diseases, malaria claims more than 1 million lives each year, 89 percent of them in Africa. The number of people who suffer from it most of their lives is many times greater. Economist Jeffrey Sachs estimates that reduced worker productivity and other costs associated with malaria are cutting economic growth by a full percentage point in heavily affected countries.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

When Population Growth And Resource Availability Collide

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 17:08:20 GMT

World Population Growth to 2050 Image credit:SustainableScale.org As land and water become scarce, competition for these vital resources intensifies within societies, particularly between the wealthy and those who are poor and dispossessed. The shrinkage of life-supporting resources per person that comes with population growth is threatening to drop the living standards of millions of people below the survival level, leading to potentially unmanageable social tensions.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Realizing The Potential of High-Speed Rail: For Climate Protection; Business Productivity; and Security

Wed, 04 Feb 2009 12:20:08 GMT

Gridlock, Image credit: Env.Canada Aside from the overriding need to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels to stabilize climate, there are several other compelling reasons for countries everywhere to restructure their transport systems, including the need to prepare for falling oil production, to alleviate traffic congestion, and to reduce air pollution.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Moving To A Stable World Population

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 08:20:56 GMT

Countries By Population Density. Image credit:Wikipedia, based on UN figures, current. The excitement of this week's inauguration of President Barack Obama still lingers in the air. He has hit the ground running and so too must we. At Earth Policy Institute, we are looking at an issue that lurks behind many of the world's ills: population growth. ... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Plan B Efficiency And Conservation Measures Drop Energy Demand By 2020

Thu, 08 Jan 2009 15:35:08 GMT

Efficiency. Image credit:Nature.com Projections from the International Energy Agency show global energy demand growing by close to 30 percent by 2020, setting the stage for massive growth in the carbon dioxide emissions that are warming our planet. But as my colleagues and I at the Earth Policy Institute demonstrate, by dramatically ramping up energy efficiency the world would not only avoid growth in energy demand but actually reduce global demand to below 2006 levels by 2020.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Creating New Jobs by Investing in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 08:22:42 GMT

Image credit:Maulleigh on Flickr At a time when major U.S. companies are announcing job layoffs almost daily, the renewable energy industry is hiring new workers every day to build wind farms, install rooftop solar arrays, and build solar thermal and geothermal power plants. The output of industrial firms that manufacture the equipment for these energy facilities is expanding by well over 30 percent a year. As I note in my recent Earth Policy Institute Update "Creating New Jobs", these investments both create jobs and help prevent climate change from spiraling out of control.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Run Cars on Green Electricity, Not Natural Gas

Sat, 29 Nov 2008 12:20:27 GMT

Pickens Meets Obama Image credit:Cleveland, Real-Time News from Around the Nation By: Jonathan G. Dorn, Staff Researcher at the Earth Policy Institute, where he works on energy issues. With the dramatic increase in oil prices earlier this year translating into higher prices at the gas pump in the United States, concerns over U.S. dependence on foreign oil are once again part of the national discussion on energy security. Combined with the growing understanding that carbon emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels are driving global climate change, the debate is now focused on how to restructure the U.S. transport system to solve these two problems. While the idea of running U.S. vehicles on natural gas has lately received a great deal of attention, powering our cars with green electricity is a more sensible option on all fronts-national security, efficiency, climate stabilization, and economics.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

New Energy Economy Emerging in the United States

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 16:30:53 GMT

Japanese Wind God, by Ogata Korin Lester R. Brown A new energy economy is emerging in the United States. As I note in a recent , the old energy economy, fueled by oil, coal, and natural gas, is being replaced by one powered by wind, solar, and geothermal energy. The transition is moving at a pace and on a scale that we could not have imagined even a year ago. ... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Rising Seas and Powerful Storms Threaten Global Security

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 09:30:52 GMT

While many of us are focused on the global economic woes, my colleague Janet Larsen, Director of Research at the Earth Policy Institute has written about some natural forces threatening our global security. Her piece, "Rising Seas and Powerful Storms Threaten Global Security" can be read in its entirety on our website. She writes, "Standing before the United Nations General Assembly in October 1987, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, President of the Maldives, made an appeal representing 'an endangered nation.' That year for the first time, 'unusual high waves' in the Indian Ocean inundated a quarter of the urban area on the capital island of Male', flooded farms, and washed away reclaimed land. Gayoom cited scientific evidence that human activities were releasing greenhouse gases that warm the planet, ultimately raising global sea level as glaciers melt and warmer water expands. The trouble extended beyond small islands; studies showed that rising seas would wreak havoc on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the Netherlands, and the river deltas of Egypt and Bangladesh."... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Drilling For Oil Is Not The Answer

Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:06:07 GMT

As attention turned to the second round of the energy debate in the U.S. Senate, my colleague Jonathan Dorn at the Earth Policy Institute put together a brief summary of the facts behind drilling, gasoline prices and America's energy future. As he wrote, "Geological and economic realities make clear that drilling for oil cannot make the U.S. energy independent or reduce gasoline prices. Drilling is an expensive and dangerous red herring, especially because far better options exist." The energy debate will continue for some time and in many variations. I hope you find the information below useful. It is also posted on-line, with references. How Much Crude OIl Does The USA Consume And Produce? . The United States consumes nearly 21 million barrels of petroleum per day (7.5 billion barrels per year), one fourth the world total. . Of the crude oil consumed in the U.S., 66 percent is imported. . The U.S. is on pace to spend over $500 billion on petroleum imports in 2008. . U.S. oil production currently occurs onshore in the lower 48 states (2.9 million barrels per day (mbd)), offshore (1.4 mbd, primarily in the Gulf of Mexico), and in Alaska (0.7 mbd).... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Increasing Equality By Educating Every Child

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 13:18:43 GMT

The social and economic gap between the world's richest 1 billion people and its poorest 1 billion has no historical precedent. Not only is this gap wide, it is widening. As I write in Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, the poorest billion are trapped at subsistence level and the richest billion are becoming wealthier with each passing year. One way of narrowing the gap between rich and poor segments of society is by ensuring universal education. This means making sure that the 72 million children not enrolled in school are able to attend. Children without any formal education are starting life with a severe handicap, one that almost ensures they will remain in abject poverty and that the gap between the poor and the rich will continue to widen. In an increasingly integrated world, this widening gap itself becomes a source of instability. Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen focuses the point: "Illiteracy and innumeracy are a greater threat to humanity than terrorism."... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Want A Better Way To Power Your Car? It's A Breeze

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 10:23:54 GMT

Legendary Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens is half right. We do need to harness this country's wind resources for a homegrown source of electricity, as he has been urging this summer in expensive television ads. And we do need to reduce the $700 billion we may soon be paying annually for imported oil. But part two of Pickens's plan--to move natural gas out of electricity production and use it to fuel cars instead--just doesn't make sense. As I note in an article in Sunday's Outlook section of the Washington Post, which we have posted on the Earth Policy Institute website, we should use wind-generated electricity directly to power cars. ... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Raising Energy Efficiency In A New Materials Economy - Part II

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:55:53 GMT

Last week in this column, I talked about several ways for raising energy efficiency mainly through recycling. Raising the energy efficiency of the materials we use commensurately cuts carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. (You may want to see our overall plan to cut carbon emissions 80 percent by 2020, Time for Plan B, summarized from Plan B 3.0.) Today I'd like to go into another kind of recycling, one that starts with a product's design so that it can be easily disassembled into its component parts for reuse or recycling. Germany and, more recently, Japan are requiring that products such as automobiles, household appliances, and office equipment be designed for easy disassembly and recycling. In May 1998, the Japanese Diet enacted a tough appliance recycling law, one that prohibits discarding household appliances, such as washing machines, TV sets, or air conditioners. With consumers bearing the cost of disassembling appliances in the form of a disposal fee to recycling firms, which can come to $60 for a refrigerator or $35 for a washing machine, the pressure to design appliances so they can be more easily and cheaply disassembled is strong.... Read the full story on TreeHugger

Recent Posts by TreeHugger's Lester Brown, Washington, D.C

The Climate Clock and Copenhagen

The Brazilian Connection - Are You In?

US Headed For Massive Decline In Carbon Emissions: 9 Percent Drop In Last Two Years

Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?

Rethinking Food Production For A World Of Eight Billion

Learning From Past Civilizations

The Oil Intensity Of Food

A Warming World Means More Destructive Storms

Melting Ice Could Lead to Massive Waves of Climate Refugees

"Plan B" - Efficiency and Conservation Measures Can Drop Energy Demand By 2020

Needed: Copernican Shift Toward A Global Eco-Economy

Protecting And Restoring Forests To Save Civilization

Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?

Shrinking Forests: The Many Costs

Closing The Door On Building New Coal-Fired Power Plants In America

Slide Show For Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing To Save Civilization

Better Health For All: Critical To Reduce Population Growth & Poverty

Public Health Challenges Growing, World Wide

When Population Growth And Resource Availability Collide

Realizing The Potential of High-Speed Rail: For Climate Protection; Business Productivity; and Security

Moving To A Stable World Population

Plan B Efficiency And Conservation Measures Drop Energy Demand By 2020

Creating New Jobs by Investing in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Run Cars on Green Electricity, Not Natural Gas

New Energy Economy Emerging in the United States

Rising Seas and Powerful Storms Threaten Global Security

Drilling For Oil Is Not The Answer

Increasing Equality By Educating Every Child

Want A Better Way To Power Your Car? It's A Breeze

Raising Energy Efficiency In A New Materials Economy - Part II